UK General Election 2024: Key Domestic Challenges
Executive Summary
Economic Policies: The Conservative Party advocates for tax breaks and deregulation to stimulate growth and control spending. Labour emphasises investments in green energy and technology, coupled with strict fiscal responsibility to ensure economic stability. The Liberal Democrats focus on increasing funding for public transport and investing in renewable energy to drive long-term economic growth.
Healthcare Reforms: All major parties agree that NHS funding must increase. The Conservative Party aims to improve efficiency through technology upgrades and operational reforms. Labour plans to expand diagnostic services, offer premium overtime rates to NHS staff, and recruit more healthcare workers. The Liberal Democrats prioritise ensuring timely access to GPs and improving training and working conditions for medical professionals.
Immigration and Asylum: The Conservative Party proposes stricter immigration controls, including a deal with Rwanda to deter small boat crossings and higher salary thresholds for skilled workers. Labour plans to scrap the Rwanda deal, increase the number of caseworkers to speed up asylum claims, and invest in upskilling domestic labour. The Liberal Democrats seek to overhaul the immigration system to make it fairer and more effective, creating more safe and legal routes into the UK for asylum seekers.
Potential Outcomes: A Labour victory in the 2024 UK General Election could lead to transformative policies focusing on green energy and public services, though this may result in higher taxes and operational costs for businesses. A hung parliament, likely resulting in a Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition, would emphasise renewable energy investments and fiscal responsibility, presenting both opportunities and short-term disruptions for businesses.
Domestic policy issues are proving a pivotal talking point in the 2024 UK General Election. Key issues like the cost-of-living crisis, economic growth, and public finances dominate the agenda. As a result, each party is putting forward a solution to these complex and impactful challenges. Each party’s approach to the UK's challenges will have substantial implications for businesses and the public.
The Economy
Tackling the Cost-of-Living Crisis, Reviving Growth, and Managing Public Finances
Looking at the domestic policy agenda, all parties will be focused on a few things: addressing the cost-of-living crisis currently impacting the public, sparking economic growth that has been stagnant for over a decade, and addressing the public finances.
The cost of living crisis, a pressing issue exacerbated by high inflation and stagnant wages, is a top concern for most voters grappling with the affordability of everyday necessities. The Conservative Party's strategy involves providing tax breaks to families to alleviate energy costs while emphasising the advantages of a low tax environment in the current economic climate. The Labour Party, on the other hand, is proposing the abolition of non-dom tax status, raising taxes on private equity and a crackdown on tax avoidance to finance public services and ease the tax burden on working families. Lastly, the Liberal Democrats focus on increasing funding for schools and public transport, freezing rail fares, and simplifying ticketing systems.
A key long-term issue in the election is how to address stagnant economic growth and ensure that the benefits of growth are evenly felt. The Conservatives aim to cut more taxes and deregulate select sectors to stimulate economic growth. Further, targeted investments in tech and healthcare would also seek to drive growth. The Labour Party hopes to stoke growth by investing in green energy and technology through its planned new company, “Great British Energy”. Labour plans concerning devolution hope to stoke local and regional growth by giving mayors and combined authorities more power. The Liberal Democrat plan to charge growth is through investment in renewable energy, which will require substantial new infrastructure and the jobs created.
Finally, each party will have to grapple with tight public finances. The Conservatives aim to control spending, likely through freezes or reductions along with efficient tax policies, to stabilise the economic environment and stimulate growth. Labour has imposed strict spending rules to highlight its dedication to fiscal responsibility.
Healthcare System Reforms
In the UK, there is a feeling that the healthcare system has declined and needs fixing. All Parties see the need to invest more in the NHS to keep it current. The Conservatives have committed to increasing both funding and staffinglevels for the NHS. They also want to see the NHS become more efficient, such as allowing prescriptions from pharmacies and upgrading the NHS’ technology. The Conservatives have stated an aim to increase NHS staffing levels but have yet to provide a detailed plan beyond general increases in funding. The Conservatives seem to be more focused on reforming operational aspects of the NHS to improve efficiency rather than increasing workforce levels.
The Labour Party seeks to use increased investment in doubling the number of diagnostic scanners, a “fit for the future fund”, to modernise NHS facilities and introduce a national program for more evening and weekend GP appointments. The Labour Party would seek to help with workforce shortages by paying NHS staff premium overtime rates to work extra shifts during evenings and weekends. They want to establish a new recruitment fund to attract more dentists and reform the NHS dentistry contract. Further, LAbour aims to recruit 8,500 mental health staff, ensuring everyone can access the necessary care.
Finally, the Liberal Democrats want to ensure everyone can see their GP within seven days or 24 hours for urgent cases. They plan to achieve this by training, recruiting and retaining more GPs and freeing up more of their time. Lastly, the Liberal Democrats want to increase the number of GPs through better training and recruitment practices, improve working conditions, and hopefully provide staff support to increase job satisfaction.
Immigration and Asylum
One of the hottest issues on the campaign trail centres around immigration. While in government, the Conservative Party has sought several ways to address immigration. To deter small boat migration into the UK, those crossing the English Channel, the Conservatives have agreed on a deal with Rwanda to send asylum seekers to that country, attempting to deter people from crossing the Channel. Regarding legal migration, the Conservatives have raised the minimum salary threshold for skilled workers to come to the UK to deter too many people from coming to the United Kingdom.
Asylum is also a front-and-centre issue for the Labour Party. Labour plans to scrap the Rwanda plan, instead seeking to sign a deal with European countries to return migrants to their European countries of origin. Further, Labour plans to increase the number of caseworkers to process asylum claims quickly and establish a new Border Security Command to find and prosecute smuggling gangs. On the skilled immigration front, Labour wants to invest in upskilling domestic labour and prevent employers from relying on overseas workers. Lastly, the Liberal Democrats want to overhaul the immigration system to make it more fair and effective, scrapping the Rwanda scheme and creating more safe and legal routes into the UK for asylum seekers. .
Crime and Law Enforcement
Crime is becoming a greater topic of concern for the general public. Though crime rates peaked in the mid-90s and have continued declining, crime is still a concern.
To tackle the issue, the Conservative Party plans to invest more in the police and security services and give them more power to protect the public. The PArty, in their manifesto, also seeks to build trust between the community and police through the licencing of officers for specialist roles. There is also a commitment to funding Hotspot Policing throughout the country.
Labour aims to take a different approach to combatting crime. The Party would seek to re-establish neighbourhood policing, making them more visible to reduce fear and gain intelligence, and recruit 2,000 more frontline officers. The Labour Manifesto also commits the party to seek solutions to knife crime, building a specialist rape unit and a new network of Young Futures Hubs to help prevent young people from falling into criminal activity in the first place.
The Liberal Democrats present a similar policy, wanting £1 billion to be invested in community policing (2 officers for every ward). Further, the Lib Dems want to ensure warrants are required for all policing operations and strengthen connections between the security services and police over counter-terrorism measures. The Party also wants to replace Police and Crime Commissioners with accountable Police Boards.
The Housing Crisis
Finally, housing is an issue that rarely goes unmentioned in the media. Housing has become a hot-button issue as rents and mortgages take up more and more of people’s incomes.
The Conservatives are focusing their policy plans on building more units in the hopes that greater supply will reduce housing costs. The Tories plan to simplify the planning process for developers and open brownfield sites to new housing developments to protect green belts. The Conservatives also aim to encourage homeownership through new help-to-buy schemes.
The Labour Party is taking an approach that focuses on social and affordable housing. The Party plans to build 150,000 new social homes yearly, with 100,000 council homes. The party also wants to modernise the public housing stock through renovations. Labour also wants to strengthen affordable housing schemes such as shared ownership or the Help to Buy scheme so that lower-income people can own their homes.
Finally, the Liberal Democrats built on the Labour promise, also wanting to build 150,000 social homes a year as part of a 380,000-home annual building programme, primarily by creating new garden cities and community-led developments. Lib Dems also want to ban no-fault evictions and establish a national register of licensed landlords. Lastly, the Liberal Democrats would establish a “Rent to Own” model for social housing, helping people buy their homes if they do not have the deposit.
Potential Outcomes and Risks
Labour Victory
A Labour victory in the 2024 UK General Election could bring about a series of transformative policies with positive and challenging implications for businesses. Labour's approach to tackling the cost-of-living crisis aims to ease the tax burden on working families and improve public services. Still, it could also increase tax obligations for large corporations, potentially raising business operational costs.
Labour’s strategy to stimulate economic growth focuses on significant investments in green energy and technology through initiatives like "Great British Energy." This plan could position the UK as a leader in renewable energy, providing new opportunities for businesses in the green technology sector. However, transitioning to greener technologies will likely require substantial initial business investments, potentially straining financial resources. Additionally, Labour's plans for devolution could decentralise economic power, creating varied regional business environments that might necessitate different operational strategies across the country.
Regarding public finances, Labour's commitment to strict spending rules could create a more stable economic environment, indirectly benefiting businesses. However, Labour's efforts to recover funds lost through COVID-19 fraud could impose additional regulatory and compliance burdens on businesses, requiring them to adapt to new oversight mechanisms.
Hung Parliament
A hung parliament resulting in a coalition between Labour and the Liberal Democrats would likely introduce a blend of policies that could significantly impact businesses. Both parties’ emphasis on renewable energy investments could open up new opportunities in the green technology sector. However, the transition phase might bring about short-term disruptions and increased costs as businesses adapt to new infrastructure requirements and regulations. This shift towards renewable energy could demand significant upfront investments, affecting financial stability in the short term.
Managing tight public finances is another critical area for the coalition. Their approach to fiscal responsibility through efficient spending and tax reforms could create a stable economic environment, benefiting businesses by ensuring economic predictability. However, the proposed windfall tax on excess profits from oil and gas companies could increase operational costs for energy-dependent businesses, potentially squeezing profit margins.
Conclusion
The 2024 UK General Election promises substantial changes in domestic policy. A Labour victory could introduce transformative policies in green energy and public services, potentially increasing operational costs due to higher taxes and initial investments. Meanwhile, a hung parliament with a Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition might blend policies emphasising renewable energy and fiscal responsibility, presenting opportunities and short-term disruptions. Businesses must remain agile and prepared to navigate these changes, balancing the potential for growth and innovation with the risks associated with new regulations and fiscal policies.