Walking a Dangerous Tightrope: How Moldova’s Foreign Policy is Mitigating the Expansion of the War in Ukraine
An often overlooked European nation sandwiched between Romania and Ukraine, Moldova’s geopolitical relevancy skyrocketed last February when Vladimir Putin’s special military operation was launched. Due to its direct proximity to the conflict, public consensus tipped Moldova as Russia’s next military target. In reaction to this, news outlets picked up on the possibility that the small nation could be annexed and incorporated into a new federation of Russian puppet states. To this day, this remains a real threat, given that the pro-Russian, breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria houses Russian military forces that represent a danger to both Moldova and Ukraine. The possible expansion of the conflict in Ukraine is incredibly worrying and thus calls for the analysis of Moldova’s foreign policy, which currently bears a crucial significance in the security outlook of Europe.
On paper, Moldova’s foreign policy regarding the conflict in Ukraine revolves around neutrality, as highlighted by Article 11 of the Moldovan Constitution which states that the country proclaims its permanent neutral stance. When taking a closer look, however, it is clear that Moldova’s foreign policy tends to lean towards the pro-western diplomatic camp. Since its independence, Moldova has frequently looked to the west as a model for democracy and government. The currently ruling pro-EU: Action and Solidarity Party maintains this trend alive, as it has enacted various political measures to further align the country with the west. After decades of gradually obtaining closer socio-economic ties with the EU, this summer Moldova was finally granted candidate status to the union. Despite this, Moldovan President Maia Sandu has found some opposition within her own parliament, due to the presence of pro-Russian political parties in government. This opposition, though, has not stopped Moldova from expressing its unwavering diplomatic support for Ukraine throughout the course of the conflict.
Politically, Moldova has repeatedly condemned Russian aggression, as seen with the remarks of President Sandu, which have highlighted the breach of international law and sovereignty committed by Russia. In a move to express solidarity with Ukraine, the Moldovan government even went as far as to ban Russian military symbols V and Z during the outbreak of the conflict. Moldova’s United Nation’s voting track record has also been consistent with its diplomatic stance on Ukraine, as the country’s delegates have voted in favour of all major resolutions condemning Russia. In contrast, militarily speaking, Moldova has somewhat stayed true to its constitution by remaining neutral. Government officials have been wary of entanglement with military alliances such as NATO and have gone on the record denying any possibility of the country’s accession to the alliance. With polls suggesting that only 25.4 percent of the population would support joining NATO, Moldova’s sporadic collaboration with the alliance remains strictly confined to non-military initiatives.
Moldovan foreign policy has remained consistent throughout the conflict and has seen little change in terms of political posture towards Russia and Ukraine. It must be noted however, that as the conflict has continued and Russia’s military fortunes have taken a turn for the worse, Moldova has aligned itself ever more slightly with the west. Additionally, the recent violation of Moldovan airspace by Russian missiles has also further damaged the already strained political relations with Moscow. Due to these developments, Moldovan Defence Minister Anatolie Nosatîi has stated that his country is currently probing the possibility of buying new air defence systems. This purchase will most likely involve multi-year contracts with NATO-member states, which would signal Moldova’s willingness to possibly entertain closer military collaboration with NATO.
Moldova’s employment of a hybrid foreign policy that maintains military neutrality, while at the same time politically backing Ukraine, has been adopted to mainly preserve the territorial integrity of the country. Moldova has tried to distance itself from possibly joining NATO, hoping that, unlike Ukraine which was supposedly invaded by Russia due to its close-knit relationship with the transatlantic alliance, this will not happen. Military neutrality is clearly taken very seriously by government officials in Chișinău, given that the volatile situation in Transnistria dictates a cautious military alignment. Moreover, Russia holds a stranglehold on Moldovan energy supplies, as this small country heavily relies on Russian gas. This explains the choice to not hold a lopsided diplomatic position in favour of Ukraine, which could have significant negative economic repercussions for the country. On the other hand, the main driver behind Moldova’s political stance lies in the government’s desire to conform to the European values of sovereignty and democracy, which could ultimately facilitate the country’s accession to the EU.
Internationally, the significance of Moldova’s balanced foreign policy lies in its ability up until this point to prevent the expansion of the conflict, which should not be underestimated as an achievement. The employment of a political stance that strongly supports Ukraine has also undoubtedlyraised Moldova’s prospects of joining the EU, which of course would be a significant international development. Moreover, the continued close collaboration between the EU and Moldova currently plays a crucial role in the efficient management of the Ukrainian refugee crisis, as this small nation has received the highest number ofrefugees per capita of any other European country. On the flipside at home, Moldova’s political backing of Ukraine is already having some severe economic consequences, despite the adoption of military neutrality.Gazprom’s recent 30 percent cut of gas supplies to Moldova and the further threat that supplies could befully halted in the month of November, pose a threat to the economic stability of the nation. These events raise the question of how long will Moldova be able to withstand its current foreign policy stance and not succumb to Russia’s aggressive blackmail tactics.