Republic Moldova's local elections: a geopolitical affair

Introduction

The upcoming local elections in the Republic of Moldova, scheduled on November 5, 2023, have generated significant tensions within the country. Indirectly affected by the war in Ukraine, the core issue at stake is the competition between pro-Russia and pro-European parties. Whilst at home the election results are likely to the sustainability of the reforms initiated by the ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) government thus far, from a foreign policy perspective, they will shape Moldova’s further pathway towards joining the European Union and on the course of European integration more broadly. 

Over the four years since the previous general local elections in the Republic of Moldova, the country witnessed presidential elections in 2020 and subsequent early parliamentary elections in 2021. On both occasions, candidates from a single political party secured victory, allowing them to create a single-party majority government. The local elections are considered to be a test for the government's level of support. 

Local elections are characterized by greater complexity in terms of organizing the electoral process and entail increased responsibility for the lower-level electoral bodies. The administrative structure of the Republic of Moldova encompasses villages, towns, districts, and the autonomous territorial unit of Gagauzia. Local self-government is established in villages (communes) and towns (municipalities) through the local councils, which serve as deliberative bodies, and the mayors, who act as executive authorities. In the case of districts, local self-government is implemented by the district councils, functioning as deliberative bodies, and the district presidents, who serve as executive authorities. During local elections, mayors of cities (municipalities), villages (communes), and councilors of district, city (municipal), and village (communal) councils are elected through a process characterized by universal, equal, direct, secret, and free suffrage, with four years term of office. In the current local elections, 898 mayors and 9972 local councilors which includes village (communal) and town councilors, as well as 1,086 district and municipal councilors will be elected.

A geopolitical matter above the national interests 

The political landscape remains shaped by societal divisions regarding the country’s geopolitical alignment, particularly given the ongoing conflict involving the Russian Federation's war in Ukraine. Among the 36 parties running for the local elections, the potential competition would be between PAS (pro-European), PSRM, PCRM (both pro-Russia), MSN of Ion Ceban, former PCRM, and Sansa, founded in August 2023 by the fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor.  

During the pre-electoral period from January to July 2023 and the electoral period itself, Moldovan voters were asked “Which political party would you vote for if parliamentary elections were to take place next Sunday?”. Opinion polls indicate a preference for PAS, followed by the Socialists and Communist bloc (BECS) and the recently emerged Sansa party. The election results will most probably have an effect on the course of European integration. There is still a potential threat that, as a result of the local elections, the political parties supported by the Kremlin seize control on territorial regions and in particular Chisinau, the capital. According to the Barometer of Public Opinion (BPO), when asked about the country's geopolitical orientation, 47% of respondents expressed a preference for EU accession, while 32.5% indicated they would opt for the Eurasian Customs Union in the event of a referendum.

For the first time in Moldova's history, a political party, which is unquestionably pro-European as declared in their electoral program in July 2021 holds sway over the Presidency, the Government, and the Parliament. This has encouraged the PAS to compete individually for the local elections, rejecting the idea of building a pro-European bloc with other parties that support European integration. Critics from within the pro-European parties who oppose the PAS government often express concerns about the government's perceived lackluster performance in reforming the European integration policies. Their own contributions to this dimension would yield significantly greater productivity. On the opposite side of the electoral spectrum, there are political groups with strong Moscow leanings and the former pro-Russian leftists with a European rhetoric that serve as satellite parties to gain the electorate. The local elections would be for them an opportunity to initiate a legal process aimed at altering the Republic of Moldova's current European-oriented trajectory.

At the beginning of this year, Ion Ceban, former Communist (2004-2012) and Socialist (2012-2019), founded the National Alternative Movement (MAN) aiming to make European integration a national idea, as declared in the political program, a decision driven by the fact that Moldova closely aligned with Putin’s Russia is not a desirable future for the majority of Moldovan citizens. However, MAN's proclaimed commitment to European integration shares some similarities with the perspective of the Moldovan Communist Party as they both seem to view European integration as a path to European-style modernization rather than pursuing full EU membership. This is further underscored by the fact that since February 2022, left-leaning parties have refrained from condemning Russian aggression while expressing support for Ukrainian refugees who have sought shelter across Moldovan borders.

The results of the local elections will not only shape the course of the country's development and the growth over the next four years, but will also play a pivotal role in Moldova's future geopolitical standing. The ongoing reforms championed by the current government and the receptiveness of the European leaders towards Moldova clearly indicate a trajectory that is firmly aligned with that of the EU. These political forces refrain from openly condemning the Russian aggression in Ukraine and instead accuse the government of jeopardizing the bilateral relations with Russia to the detriment of Moldova's economic interests. The essence of this electoral message hinges on the historical affinity and nostalgia that substantial segments of the Moldovan society still preserve. 

Moldova's European dream declared at the European National Assembly 

This aspiration is not new, but the decision of the European Council has given shape and meaning to Moldova's commitment to be part of the European Union. “Moldova is Europe!” held on May 21, 2023 in Chisinau - over 80,000 Moldovans and the Moldovan Diaspora living in the EU, the USA and Canada chanted in favor of EU membership. President Maia Sandu launched the initiative and brought together thousands of supporters who believe in the European future of Moldova. Citizens, reunited in PMAN (National Assembly Square), casted their votes in favor of adopting the European Moldova Resolution, which aims to set the country on the European path and amend the Constitution of the Republic of Moldova to firmly and irrevocably establish country's accession to the European Union while, Roberta Metsola renewed during the assembly Europa’s support to Moldova’s choice to join the EU.

The country stands at a crucial moment in its history. Since the membership application in June 2022, the EU has demonstrated unprecedented openness and support to the Moldovan government as it engages in implementing the 9 recommendations required to start negotiations on membership. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, being confronted with the Russian military presence in Transnistria, Moldova’s position has become strategically important for the EU. On the one hand, President Maia Sandu and the government have significantly contributed to maintaining peace and stability in the country. During her speech at UN General Assembly in September 2023, Sandu has highlighted how “the Republic of Moldova does not face an imminent military threat, but each day it counters the Russian Federation’s hybrid assault as it works with corrupt crooks to destabilize the country”.On the other hand, the EU has granted financial assistance to Moldova to support the economic stabilization and development and the structural reform agenda of the country. Implementing further important reforms and bringing Moldova closer to the EU is a complex task, and the standard four-year legislative term for presidential, parliamentary or local elections may be  insufficient to support long-terms changes especially for a state grappling with high levels of corruption that permeates states institutions and the political class. Following the Constitutional Court's decision issued in June to declare the Shor party as unconstitutional, the fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor announced in August the establishment of a political bloc named "Sansa" (Chance) Party to further exercise his power in the political life of the country. Moreover, early in October, the Moldovan Constitutional Court paved the way for the former members of the Shor party to participate in local elections either as independent candidates, or as members of other parties. Therefore, external threats arise from the corrupt individuals who, in return for financial support, have the capacity to exert considerable influence and engage in various illicit activities during the local election campaign. 

Soviet nostalgia echoes at Moldova’s European borders 

Under the current regional geopolitical situation, among the major threats to national security Russia's aggressive policy towards Moldova drove President Sandu to adopt measures to ensure peace, democracy and stability in the country.

From managing Moldova's gas supplies to the illegal financing of pro-Russian parties, Moscow is actively pursuing its efforts to reaffirm its influence in the region. Currently, Moldova is not facing an imminent military threat, but it is experiencing a form of hybrid warfare instigated by the Kremlin and aimed at undermining the country's government. Until 2022, Russia, as the exclusive gas supplier to Moldova, raised prices and curtailed the supplies, multiplying the cost four to seven times, which led to an unprecedented inflation spike. This year, one of the Kremlin’s strategies is targeting the upcoming general local elections. In May 2023, the Kremlin supported the Shor party, currently declared as unconstitutional, secured its victory in the autonomous region of Gagauzia. With these local elections, there is a risk that left-wing Russophile satellite parties led by Ilan Shor, who is among the main chieftains involved in the bank fraud, also known as “the theft of the century”, and by former President of Moldova Igor Dodon, who is an unconditional supporter of Putin, can gain political control over local territories, making collaboration between the local municipalities and the central government more difficult particularly with regards to  implementing the reforms that will enable Moldova to advance with its membership application to the EU.