On March 19, Russian state media reported that Putin, joined by Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin, was visiting the Russian-occupied city of Mariupol in the Donetsk region, with the trip supposedly focusing on ‘reconstruction effort’ following its destruction during Russia’s siege of the city which ended last May. Both Putin and Khusnullin reportedly inspected newly built residencies and hospitals, as well as meeting with locals of the city. The trip had been preceded by a visit to Crimea which recently marked the ninth anniversary of Russia’s annexation of the peninsula back in 2014. 

Since the launch of Russia’s so-called ‘Special Military Operation’ back in February of last year, Putin has mostly remained in the Kremlin, making this trip his first ever visit to the Russian-occupied areas of Eastern Ukraine. The timing of this surprise visit, however, has not gone unnoticed by analysts who have noted that there is a likely link between this trip and the recent issuing of an arrest warrant for Putin by the ICC. The ICC on 17 March accused Putin, alongside Russia’s Presidential Commissioner for Children’s Rights, Maria Lvova-Belova, of alleged war crimes in Ukraine - specifically with regard to the unlawful deportation of approximately 16,000 Ukrainian children to Russia, and thus called for their arrest. 

Russia, a country which does not recognise the ICC, immediately responded with a complete disregard and rebuttal of the ICC and the arrest-warrant, with former Russian president Dmitri Medvedev reportedly stating that the warrant’s was as useful as toilet paper, and even made an implicit threat to fire a hypersonic-missile at the Hague-based court. This would be also followed by Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman, Maria Zhakarova, stating that the arrest warrant was of ‘no significance’, and that senior officials would continue to enjoy ‘absolute immunity’. 

While Putin himself has not responded to the ICC warrant, the visit to Mariupol, a city which saw such significant devastation in the opening months of the Russian invasion, it is reasonable to suggest that this intends to send a message to the international community. However, with the BRICS Summit due to take place in South Africa this August, the warrant has led to speculations and in some cases, demands, for South Africa to arrest Putin, as required for an ICC-compliant state. While unlikely to happen should Putin decide to attend the summit in person, this situation has presented a dilemma for the South African government - who on one hand South Africa must arrest Putin due to being a signatory of the 1998 Rome Statute, but on the other hand have emphasised a position of neutrality, and refusal to break ties with Russia, which is a fellow BRICS member. Arresting Putin would almost certainly spark a severe diplomatic crisis with Russia, which, basing on current Kremlin rhetoric, will likely warrant a serious response - something South Africa is likely not too keen on. Yet not arresting Putin would see South Africa almost certainly face harsh criticism from the West, and presenting the view to the world of a more solid Russian-South African unofficial alliance.

Nonetheless, in visiting the city while the conflict is still raging on in places like Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and others, it signals to the rest of the world that in the view of the Russian president, it does not matter what any international court or country says, the SMO will continue and Russian policy shall not change.