The New Axis of Evil: Iran and North Korea’s Damning Military Partnership with Russia and its Geopolitical Implications
Russia’s humiliating military failures have frequently grabbed international headlines over the past year, as disorganization and incompetence within the ranks of Vladimir Putin’s army have severely hindered its operational capacity. With winter fast approaching and weapon supply stocks running low, Putin has resorted to forging close military partnerships with some of the world’s most isolated authoritarian regimes. What was unthinkable more than a year ago has happened, given that Russia has now emerged as the leader of an axis of evil that is comprised by states such as Iran and North Korea. This newfound military cooperation between these countries has raised many eyebrows, but more worryingly, it has also facilitated the deaths of numerous innocent civilians in Ukraine. The willingness displayed by states such as Iran and North Korea to sell highly lethal weaponry to any war-mongering nation, ultimately raises the question of what are the geopolitical implications of these new military partnerships?
During August and September, US intelligence services declassified various documents that displayed Russia’s alleged military trade with Iran and North Korea. As time has passed, we now know with certainty that both these countries are supplying weapons to the Russians, even though many details of these military purchases still remain unknown. Iran’s dealings with Russia have truly caught global attention due to the presence of Iranian military advisors in Crimea that are currently helping Russian forces operate foreign-bought Shahed-136 drones and surface-to-surface ballistic missiles. On the other hand, North Korea’s military assistance has been somewhat more limited, given that the hermit kingdom is providing artillery shells and short-range rockets to Putin’s army. It has been widely documented that these weapons have been used by Russia in an indiscriminate terror campaign of drone and missile strikes across Ukraine. These air strikes have purposely targeted Ukrainian infrastructure in an attempt to break the morale of the local population. As a result of this, a third of the country is currently without electricity access. However, Putin’s plan to create another Ukrainian mass exodus to Europe has not worked for the time being, as the brave citizens of Ukraine stay put.
So what can we actually learn from these unorthodox military partnerships? From a geopolitical point of view, Russia’s military collaboration with Iran and North Korea outlines its increasingly weakening strategic position in Ukraine. It is safe to say that sanctions aimed at Russia’s military industrial complex have been effective in depleting army stockpiles and pushing Russia towards acquiring second-rate military equipment. North Korea’s partnership with Russia is a prime example of this, since their collaboration highlights Russia’s sense of desperation as it attempts to try and find any available munitions to fuel its campaign in Ukraine. Moscow’s cooperation with Tehran spells bad news for the West, as this unprecedented, close-knit relationship between these two powers poses a myriad of threats to international political stability. In terms of power balances in the global arms market, Iran has also managed to affirm itself once again as a major drone and weapon exporter, which indicates that this regional power should not be underestimated. It is important to add that the geopolitical impact of Russia and North Korea’s military partnership is negligible when compared to Russia’s involvement with Iran. This can be explained by the political and economic isolation of Kim Jong-Un’s regime that has sidelined North Korea's ability to have any real influence on the conflict in Ukraine.
On the battlefield, Iranian and North Korean weapons are highly unlikely to have any decisive impact on the course of the war, due to the limited quantity supplied and dubious quality of these armaments. Moreover, military analysts have also criticized Putin’s strategic choice to employ these weapons to target civilians. The New York Times has supported this viewpoint as a recent article states: “drones would be more effectively used on the front lines of the military battlefield … rather than using them on civilian targets”. Comments such as these highlight how the conduct of the conflict has been changing, as Russia grows ever more desperate to turn the tide of the war. In the months to come, it is possible to expect that Russia’s military strategy will continue to employ terror tactics to try and break the morale of the Ukrainian population. The continuation of this strategic trend will lead to a more vicious and bloody conflict and a steep increase in the mortality rates among civilians.
Some of the measures that can be adopted to try and curb the influence of these military partnerships are sanctions, which target the military industrial complexes of the countries involved. Needless to say, in regards to North Korea, stringent sanctions are already in place so there is no real possibility to try and further hinder arms production in this country. In Iran’s case though, theUK and the EU have already announced new sanctions packages to address Iran’s exportation of its drones. In this instance, the EU must persevere with this course of action and look to constantly revise its sanction regimes, so that the production of Iranian drones may be curtailed. Russia’s new military partnerships also call for the strengthening of the West’s military support for Ukraine,with a particular emphasis on the supply of air defense systems. Now the ball is in the court of the close allies of Ukraine to match the military needs of the Ukrainian armed forces by providing armaments that can help contrast Russian air incursions.