Resupplying Space: What is the Role of the Private Sector?
Executive Summary
China and the European Union have recently announced plans to establish their own versions of NASA’s Commercial Resupply Services program, opening the door to the commercial space sector for the resupplying of space stations.
These programs have the potential to hugely benefit commercial space actors and national space agencies alike thanks to their proclivity for stimulating innovation, lowering costs, and diversifying risks.
However, the siloed nature of these programs is indicative of a broader worrying trend in space; the decline of international cooperation and the failure of global governance mechanisms to prevent unsafe, unfair, and militarized behaviour in outer space.
Keywords: Commercial Resupply Programs, New Space Economy, International Space Station, Tiangong, Outer Space Governance.
Introduction
With the International Space Station (ISS) set to be decommissioned by January 2031 and the first three modules of China’s Tiangong station successfully established in Low-Earth Orbit as of late 2022, the need for frequent and low-cost resupply missions to space is greater than ever. Since 2012, the ISS has been resupplied by commercial actors thanks to NASA’s Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) program. In a decision that echoes NASA’s 2008 announcement of the CRS program, on May 16 the China Manned Space Engineering Office (CMSEO) proposed a collaboration between the national space authorities and the commercial space industry to develop low-cost resupply missions to the Tiangong station. The Chinese are not alone in their imitation of the CRS program; on May 31 the European Space Agency (ESA) invited European companies to submit proposals for commercial cargo transportation services, outlining similar requirements as the Chinese and CRS-2 programs. What explains the proliferation of these public-private partnerships and what benefits do they bring to both national space agencies and commercial actors? This article will explore these commercial resupply programs and their implications for the budding commercial “New Space” economy.
NASA’s Bright Idea
NASA has been pursuing collaboration with the private sector since the 1984 Commercial Launch Act and provided funding to the commercial space sector for the first time in 2006 for the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program. COTS enabled the development of SpaceX’s Dragon and Orbital Sciences Corporation’s (now Northrop Grumman) Cygnus launchers for the relatively low cost (by aerospace standards) of $800 million. The success of the COTS program directly inspired NASA’s 2008 announcement of their flagship Commercial Resupply Services program, which promised $3.5 billion in funding to commercial actors that could meet their ISS resupply requirements. Specifically, commercial proposals were evaluated based on mission suitability and price, with each proposal given a score out of 1000 based on several technical evaluations. Building on their existing relationship, the contracts were awarded to SpaceX and Orbital Sciences Corp., to run from 2012 until 2016.
In 2016, the contracts were extended through 2024 (known as the CRS-2 contracts), this time with a specific list of requirements and a maximum total budget of $14 billion. The contracts were awarded to SpaceX, Northrop Grumman, and Sierra Space and were recently extended through 2030 and the end of the ISS’ lifespan. On June 5, SpaceX is set to launch their 28th resupply mission to the ISS, delivering essential equipment to the station, and spending a month attached to it before splashing into the waters off the coast of Florida.
China’s Approach to New Space
China’s commercial space sector has exploded since its inception in 2014 after the publishing of “Document 60” by the Chinese State Council which invited private investment in China’s previously entirely state-owned space sector. While the country’s outer space industry remains largely state-owned, hundreds of new Chinese-based start-ups and commercial space companies have raised over ¥40 billion (roughly $6.5 billion) since 2014. Companies like LandSpace, Expace, and Geely are driving innovation in Chinese re-useable rockets, advanced rocketry, and satellite technology.
Despite this relative boom in commercial activities in the Chinese space sector, the Chinese government has yet to create a single national-level legislation for commercial space regulation. The absence of regulation has resulted in a high level of uncertainty within the commercial space industry and is considered its “core weakness.” It is with this backdrop that China has proposed a collaboration between state and commercial actors to develop resupply missions to their new Tiangong station. Much like the CRS-2 announcement, the announcement included a list of fiscal and technical requirements for prospective bids. With this program, China hopes to replicate the success of the CRS programs and nurture their nascent commercial space industry.
Space X Crew Dragon Resilience docked at the ISS on its first resupply run, 27 January 2021, Image Courtesy of NASA
Terrae Novae for the ESA
The motivation behind the ESA’s announcement of its own commercial cargo service goes beyond just resupplying the ISS through the end of its lifespan but is also preparing for a future where “space agencies are customers rather than owners of space infrastructure.” The announcement is in line with the ESA’s broader Terrae Novae three-pronged strategy of; sustaining the ESA’s presence in space after the ISS, enabling a European presence on the moon by 2030, and aiming to be part of the first manned mission to Mars. The ESA and its 22 member states already collaborate closely with European industrial actors like Arianespace, and much like NASA with the initial CRS program, hopes that this program will strengthen the existing bonds between public and private space actors, keep costs low, and drive innovation in the European commercial space sector.
Implications for “New Space”
i. Innovation
Programs like the CRS and its Chinese and European imitations have numerous benefits for the future of human space exploration. First, these programs drive innovation in the space sector. When seeking proposals from the commercial space sector, national space agencies present the technical challenge of resupplying space to dozens of motivated teams of engineers, instead of just their own. The contracts present commercial actors with a set of parameters for the cost, capacity, and delivery date of the rockets, then it is up to the companies to innovate to meet the requirements as they see fit. This competition results in diverse and innovative solutions and benefits both public and private actors. Look no further than the development of the reusable SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, which was driven in part by the requirements of the CRS and CRS-2 contracts.
ii. Lower Costs
Another benefit of commercial resupply contracts is the potential for lower costs. When selecting bids for a program like the CRS, national space agencies can select the cheapest proposals to minimize costs and maximize efficiency. For the CRS bids, the three proposals from SpaceX, Orbital ATK, and Sierra Space exceeded the requirements for the “request for proposal” and NASA determined they would provide “good value to NASA and the ISS.” Driven by competition, industrial actors are incentivised to keep the price of their designs lower to secure funding.
iii. Risk Diversification
Finally, public-private partnerships diversify risk for national space agencies like NASA and the European Space Agency that are held accountable for launch failures and delays in the halls of Congress or parliaments. By entrusting resupply missions to the private sector, these national space agencies can not only save face on failed launches and delays, but also entrust the resupplying to multiple private actors at once, ensuring that even if one delivery system fails, there will be others available to complete the mission.
The Dark Future of Outer Space
In all, the proliferation of outer space commercial resupply missions is great news for the burgeoning “New Space” economy and is indicative of a wider trend of the commercialization of space. These partnerships drive innovation, limit costs, and diversify risks for national space agencies and will certainly be a staple of orbital resupplying for years to come.
These programs are not without their downsides. While the ESA proposal is open to all its member states, the NASA and CMSEO programs are available only to American and Chinese companies, respectively. This is indicative of a wider worrying trend in the New Space economy which is the “siloing” of the commercial space industry within national boundaries and heralds the potential for the end of the era of international cooperation in space, facilitated by the ISS. There is a very real possibility that after the retirement of the ISS in 2031, space will become a domain of even greater geopolitical competition.
Space is already facing persistent problems of space debris, militarization, and a lacklustre legal regime, and intense geopolitical competition seems to be winning out over global governance efforts to maintain space’s status as a global common good. Failures to establish a universal Anti-Satellite Weapons Ban, protectionist policies like the Wolf Amendment (intended to limit collaboration with China in space) in the US and the ESA’s Revolution Space Report (where it pledges to increase autonomy in space) stymie any chance of international collaboration between the commercial space industries of the world’s leading space powers.
As states rush to secure their piece of the “New Space” economy pie, cooperation and responsible practices ought not to be ignored. A free, fair, and safe outer space is more conducive to a flourishing human presence in near-earth orbit and beyond and thus global governance efforts in outer space are more important than ever. With the shining star of international cooperation in space, the ISS, set to crash down to earth in the coming decade, efforts to strengthen new cooperative initiatives should be a priority for all national and commercial actors interested in being a part of humanity's future in outer space.