“De-dollarization” – A Teaser

In February 2023, the yuan’s share of global trade increased to 4.5% — close to the Euro at 6% — from less than 2% no longer than a year ago. Simultaneously, the dollar share of central bank foreign reserves fell to a 20-year low of 58% in the same period (IMF). This situation followed the sweeping sanctions imposed by the West on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine, notably freezing Russian dollar reserves through the SWIFT payment system. The financial blockade has naturally led Russia to seek alternatives to the dollar to conduct international trade, rapidly making the Chinese yuan the most traded foreign currency on the Russian exchange.

Beyond Russia, Western sanctions have acted as a shock therapy for emerging economies, with numerous countries announcing their intentions to diversify their currency usage, and multiplying bilateral trade agreements denominated in their own currencies. For instance, Saudi Arabia has reportedly entered into active talks with China to price some of its oil sales in yuan. Similarly, Brazil has positioned the yuan as the second foreign reserve currency, ahead of the Euro, while Banco BOCOM BBM—a Brazilian bank controlled by China's Bank of Communications—became the first bank in Latin America to sign up as a direct participant in China's competing settlement agreement, CIPS, in March 2023. India is also slowly departing from the dollar, multiplying regional trade agreements settled in its own currency.

This movement away from the dollar system reignited the debate around “de-dollarization,” an hypothesis which has featured economic debates since former US President Richard Nixon upended the original Bretton Woods agreements in 1971. However, macroeconomics pundits call for moderation: Money is first and foremost a game of trust, it requires users’ confidence to work. Countries do not hold a foreign currency if their trade partners are unlikely to accept it as payment for their exported goods. On this benchmark, the US dollar is expected to remain the game in town in absence of deep structural changes. Indeed, its closest competitor—the Chinese yuan—is a closed currency: It cannot be exchanged for other currencies without the CCP’s approval, which maintains a tight control over international capital flows. This fundamentally limits the ability for central banks to accumulate yuan as reserve and to use it to trade internationally. As the liberalization of the Chinese financial system would pose major challenges on its economic governance, most believe that the convertibility of the yuan represents an unrealistic scenario for the foreseeable future.

Yet, the underlying trend seems to be clear: BRICS countries are gradually developing into a trading alliance. On August 22nd, the BRICS will hold a meeting in South Africa to explore the possibility of introducing a new shared currency. Such a solution would tackle one of the main impediments of de-dollarization through bilateral agreements. Through a shared currency, the BRICS would tap into a geographically diversified basket of commodities and manufactured goods, making a compelling argument for parking said-shared currency as a central bank foreign reserve, rather than converting it back to US dollars or Euros for international trade.

Would this shared currency be a credible threat to the US dollar in the long-run? Yes. Under its current organization, BRICS countries have outgrown the G7 on a PPP basis. Their geographical diversity would allow a level of self-sufficiency and production range beyond current monetary unions such as the Eurozone, while BRICS’ combined trade surplus would underpin the currency’s stability (FP). Furthermore, as regional economic powerhouses, BRICS could influence their local trade partners to adopt their currency, allowing goods to circumvent any potential bilateral trade restrictions through third countries, thus ensuring global trade continuity. With 19 other commodity-rich countries—such as Argentina, Iran, Egypt, Indonesia, and, most importantly, Saudi Arabia—interested in becoming part of the BRICS association, the challenge to dollar hegemony appears increasingly tangible.

To achieve global acceptance, the BRICS would need to demonstrate successful joint currency management. This would, evidently, be a long and challenging undertaking for the BRICS. However, initial steps toward this vision have already been taken with the creation of the BRICS Interbank Cooperation Mechanism and BRICS Pay, a cross-border payment system that avoids conversion to dollars, while talks of aligning Central Bank Digital Currencies have also been floated. While past efforts to establish ambitious projects have often fallen short of expectations, such as the BRICS credit rating agency or the BRICS’ New Development Bank, the group remains steadfast on de-dollarization, having a history of overcoming internal crises. Despite significant upheavals between its members, the BRICS group has intensified its collaboration and persistently expanded the breadth of policy matters it tackles, a phenomenon which should sound familiar to our European readers. Having now identified de-dollarization as a common goal, it appears unlikely that the group deviates from its trajectory.

On July 7th, the Russian Embassy in Kenya declared on Twitter that “the BRICS countries are planning to introduce a new trading currency, which will be backed by gold,” propelling the yellow metal to $1954 per ounce, along with silver. While Russia’s bombastic announcements should be approached with caution, this path is not unlikely. By tying their currency to gold, BRICS countries could introduce a degree of confidence into their shared currency, harkening back to pre-Bretton Woods monetary arrangements. In today’s fragmented international order, commodities are reclaiming the center stage, as global demand for resources surges amid industrial onshoring, and increased emphases on energy transition and energy security in advanced economies. Those emerging needs are pushing nations to secure strategic reserves and developing their local processing capacities, thereby reshaping antiquated trade dynamics. In this scenario, commodity-rich countries, once sidelined, are finding themselves in positions of increased influence against debt-laden, service economies. As investors reinterpret what constitutes a good sovereign debt collateral, a shift from fiat back to a commodity-backed monetary system could provide the necessary impetus for the BRICS shared currency plan to gain traction and begin the slow erosion of dollar dominance.

Regardless of what will come out of the next BRICS meeting, stay posted for the next joint release from London Politica Global Commodities Watch and Business and Market Watch. We will explore in depth the likelihood, as well as the consequences, of de-dollarization on world politics.