In late February, M23 rebels seized the town of Rubaya in the North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The town is a major coltan mining centre and its seizure is just the latest in a series of attacks by rebel groups on mining operations in the DRC, which has some of the world’s largest reserves of minerals including cobalt, copper, and coltan. In the same month, M23 captured the key towns of Mushaki and Mweso, bringing them ever closer to the regional capital Goma.

The M23 rebellion first emerged in 2012 and was initially defeated by Congolese and United Nations (UN) forces in 2013 but the group has continued to carry out sporadic attacks in the region since then. The latest seizure of Rubaya highlights the continued instability in the area and the challenges faced by the DRC government in maintaining control over its mineral wealth. The coltan supply coming from North Kivu will likely decrease because of this, which will lead to prices increasing in an already expensive market. Coltan contains niobium and tantalum, critical components in many electronic devices, as well as being important in the aerospace, healthcare, and energy industry. The international community may have to shift their attention away from the ongoing crisis in Ukraine if the situation continues to spiral.

The mining of these minerals often involves dangerous and exploitative working conditions, and profits from the industry have been linked to armed groups in the region. The situation is further complicated by the involvement of neighbouring countries such as Rwanda. Despite the DRC government alleging that M23 are receiving support in arms and men from Rwanda, this accusation was not levelled against Rwanda at the Community of Central African States nor the East African Community’s (EAC) at recent gatherings. With the DRC already struggling to contain the issue from spreading to other provinces, it is unsurprising that they would not want to throw more oil onto the fire and risk inciting harsher retaliation from Rwanda.

While it is unclear yet what this means for the future of the DRC, the loss of Goma would represent a major challenge to the authority of the government. Other dormant rebel groups may try their luck against a weakened central government. In addition to this, the DRC will likely pay close attention to the actions of Rwanda if M23 marches on Goma. With Lake Kivu preventing any attack from the south on Goma, the rebels will have to attack in two prongs from the north and west of the city. If reports emerge of fighters attacking Goma from its eastern border with Rwanda, Rwanda’s claims to not be supporting the group will become even more dubious. 

The scale of the humanitarian crisis caused by such an attack, whether with help from Rwanda or not, would lead to a catastrophic loss of life. In the case of a capture of the city, thousands of people would be displaced or trapped within the zone of conflict with few options of escape. Both the UN and EAC have recognised the scale of this upcoming problem, with the UN calling for more than half a billion dollars in aid and the EAC calling for all rebel groups to withdraw from Eastern Congo. 

With war in eastern Europe still ongoing, EU nations and the US are focused on Ukraine. This means material assistance to the DRC will most likely come from the EAC. In the best case scenario, this may not even be needed as M23 have previously caved to international diplomatic pressure and retreated from recent gains in December and January. But it is doubtful that they will take the same actions again given how close to a major objective they are and after already retreating from it.

As mentioned, the DRC is a vital source of other commodities whose supply and price would be adversely affected by the breakdown of the central DRC government. Cobalt and Copper, for example, have a wide range of applications, such as electronics and construction. While companies in these industries look for alternative sources for these minerals, they would be forced to pay higher prices thereby increasing prices for consumers as well. With inflation reaching record highs across parts of the world coupled with the reliance many industries have on technology,  rising commodity prices could lead to decreased spending from consumers.