Small Modular Reactors Nuclear Renaissance?
In the era of climate urgency, increasing energy demands, and geopolitical uncertainties, Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) could redefine the energy landscape and provide viable alternatives to current energy sources. SMRs present a scalable, safer alternative to traditional nuclear power. This report from London Politica explores the potential of SMRs to revolutionise energy production, mitigate climate change, and enhance energy security. With uranium prices soaring and global interest in nuclear energy surging, SMRs are poised to play a critical role in the nuclear renaissance.
Our comprehensive analysis covers key regions, including the US, Europe, and China, examining their nuclear strategies, regulatory landscapes, and market dynamics. We also delve into the controversies surrounding uranium supply chains and the broader political and economic implications of nuclear power. Dive into our in-depth analysis of the future of SMRs and their global impact.
Niger Coup: What Could've Left the Sahel's Last Bastion so Vulnerable?
Introduction
Niger’s President Mohamed Bazoum has been ousted from power, claims the presidential guard, who appeared on national television late on Wednesday night, mere hours after he was captured in the country’s presidential palace. The coup artists claim to have suspended all political institutions in the country. General Abdourahamane Tiani, the head of Niger’s presidential guard, who previously was rumoured to have been in negotiations with the president after Bazoum planned to demote him from head of the organisation, was initially challenged by the wider armed forces and national guard, who threatened to attack the insurrectionists unless they stepped down; those same armed forces now back the coup against Bazoum to supposedly prevent a bloodbath, even as Bazoum pledged to protect the democratic gains made in the country, in spite of recent events.
The following report provides a summary of the potential contributors to the instability in Niger, including the precarious security situation, growing anti-French and pro-Russian sentiments, dwindling food supply, political mismanagement of the world’s fastest growing population, and a sharp rise in the price of fuel.
National Overview
Niger is a multicultural yet overwhelmingly Muslim North-West African nation, around double the size of Texas or France, bordering Nigeria to the South, Mali to the West, Algeria and Libya to the North, and Chad to the East, as well as other smaller nations in all directions. It usually resides at the bottom of most indicators of human development and is one of the poorest nations on earth, with a population of around 25 million people. It is a former French colony, with French being the language of administration. France remains one of its primary import and export partners. Moreover, the country still uses the Franc as its currency.
The Hausa (also majorly present in northern Nigeria) live mainly in the South and centre of the country and are the largest ethnic group at 51% of the population. The Zarma-Songhai make up 21% of the population and primarily reside in the nation’s southwest. 80% of the country’s area is covered by the Sahara Desert. This area, however, only contains 20% of the country’s population, made up primarily of the Tuareg and other ethnic groups, which make up the remainder of Niger’s population. The sheer size of the Sahara makes water scarce, particularly in the north of the country. The South, however, has a more tropical climate with higher rainfall. It is home to both French and American military bases, with both countries involved in the international effort against Jihadist groups in the Sahel region of North West Africa; a section of this region forms part of Niger’s territory.
Situational Background
Niger is no stranger to coups and coup attempts, with military officers overthrowing presidents in 1974, 1996, 1999, and 2010. Bazoum’s ascent to the presidency, however, was the country’s first ever case of a peaceful transfer of power from one president to another, despite an attempted coup just two days before Bazoum’s inauguration in 2021 as well as accusations of fraud from the second place candidate, Mahamane Ousmane, whose supporters have held mass rallies. Bazoum was the preferred successor of his predecessor, Mahamadou Issoufou, who stepped down voluntarily. Rather than a break with Niger’s tradition of military coups, this suggests an aberration created by the transfer of power from one chairman of the board to another, instead of one governmental apparatus handing over to another.
Yet, Bazoum’s regime had begun to be viewed within the country as increasingly repressive and not particularly popular. Additionally, his predecessor may have been viewed internationally as an effective democratic leader, but this view is rarely found in Niger itself, with wide scale industrial action taking place under both Bazoum’s and Issoufou’s reigns respectively.
Militants in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin
Bazoum, seen by many within Niger as a puppet of French authorities, has stated that France’s anti-Jihadist force in the region is a “relative failure, it’s a shared failure, a failure of the entire coalition." He also stated that France’s troop drawdown in the region would have only a limited impact. In fact, on the same day that Bazoum’s election victory was certified by the nation’s constitutional court, armed men on motorbikes attacked a string of villages on the Mali border, leaving 137 dead in the nation’s deadliest violence in recent times.
There are now more fatalities linked to militant islamist groups in the Sahel than in any other region of Africa. In fact, violence in the Sahel increases year on year, while fatalities linked to islamist groups in other parts of Africa have fallen.
In the West, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), made up of various Al Qaeda affiliates, with the Macina Liberation Front (FLM) being the one most active in the Sahel, are the largest contributors to fatalities linked to islamist violence in the region. The Africa Center for Strategic Studies attributes these two groups with the majority of violent attacks and islamist militant violence in the Sahel, which now accounts for 60% of such violence across the continent.
This has led to the displacement of approximately 2.5 million people across the region, although Burkina Faso accounts for the majority of those displaced. Some of the latest data from 2021, the year of Bazmoun’s inauguration, showed a 50% rise in battles between JNIM forces and security forces, while battles with ISGS fell by 45%.
The main groups operating in Eastern Niger, as part of the Lake Chad Basin, are Boko Haram, the Islamic State in West Africa (ISWA), and Ansaru. These groups are also present in Nigeria, Cameroon, and Chad. The Lake Chad Basin is now the second highest region in Africa for fatalities linked to militant islamist groups. Its trend is overall downward, however, as opposed to the increasing violence in the Sahel. As of 2021, the Basin saw a 32% drop in militant islamist activity and a 21% drop in reported fatalities linked to militant islamist groups. Boko Haram is the group most on the decline, with a drop in linked fatalities of 46%, while ISWA only saw a drop of 3%. This discrepancy is most likely due to the death of Boko Haram’s longtime leader, Abubakur Shekau, in May 2021 and subsequent regrouping.
The relative rise in violence in the Sahel, and the drop in Lake Chad, present new problems for security forces in Niger. In 2012, the vast majority of violence that forces in Niger had to contend with was situated in the east of the nation, in the Lake Chad Basin. Although violence in the Basin has recently been on the decline, the sharp rise in violence in the Sahel, contained in parts of western Niger, leaves the counter-islamist-militant coalition split across the country with only vast desert and a small section of tropical savannah linking the two fronts, making transfers of troops and supplies by land vulnerable and logistically difficult.
Growing Anti-French Sentiment and Increasing Russian Influence Across the Region
There is little information on why the same presidential guard that fought to protect Bazoum’s life in March 2021, has captured him and supplanted Niger’s political institutions. There are serious concerns that the Wagner group is connected. Fans were flamed by Wagner Group Commander Yevgeny Prigozhin’s attendance at a recent Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg, suggesting Wagner and the Russian state remain partners on the continent. Prigozhin's public statements, characterising the coup as “a battle by the people of Niger against their colonisers”, were especially alarming. The Wagner Group’s goals as a private military company (PMC) are to secure profit while advancing Russian socio-economic and foreign policy interests.
Niger and the wider region of Francophone North-West Africa have come under increasing Russian influence in recent times. This has combined with existing anti-colonial and anti-French sentiment to create a perfect storm of public pressure against the French and the West as a whole. The same week as the coup in Niger, the new Mali constitution, brought in via referendum, demoted French as an official language to the status of a “working” language. This subsequently promoted a number of native languages to official status.
The French military’s operations in Mali were always only somewhat supported by the population, with one especially gruesome event where a French air strike killed 22 people at a wedding, exemplifying the tension, propensity for callousness, and frequent unforced errors made by the French military. The French government asserted that those killed were Jihadis, while the UN concluded that they were overwhelmingly civilians. Mali has now turned to the Wagner Group for military aid in fighting insurgencies, and expelled its French forces.
Bazoum, however, has identified France as an easy target for "the populist discourse of certain opinions, especially on social media among African youth” and that “its adversaries want to project an image of France as a neocolonialist power. Some people stick to that cliché, which is not true, but which is very useful for propaganda.” He stated that Wagner had been ineffective in Mali, and that the number of refugees entering Niger from Mali had actually increased since the departure of French forces in the region.
With many of Niger’s neighbours creeping out of western influence, the nation seemed increasingly to be the last bastion of the so-called “coup belt”, a grouping of predominantly Francophone Central and West African countries.
The French government in particular came to view Niger as a partner of last resort, as its other options dissipated. Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim, a senior Sahel analyst at the International Crisis Group speaking to the Financial Times, said Bazoum’s pro-western stance had received a mixed reception at home, where he had taken “quite a hit”. “The same anti-French discourse that has proliferated in Mali and Burkina Faso is also present in Niger”. More specifically, Bazoum had complained of disinformation campaigns by Wagner against his government. Perhaps then it is no surprise that supporters of the Niger coup have been seen waving Russian flags all over the country, seen by many as Niger’s ally against western hegemony and colonialism.
Wagner’s preference for payment in natural resources, most commonly valuable raw minerals, is not news. Niger produces 7% of the world’s Uranium, with most of it ending up in France for use in the nation’s many nuclear power stations, which produce around 70% of French power. Around three quarters of France’s Uranium comes from just four countries: Kazakhstan, Australia, Niger, and Uzbekistan. However, Niger has been diversifying its customer base, with significant shares of the country’s uranium now being sold to companies based in Canada and China, with each nation’s operation in Niger maintaining its own extraction sites.
Therefore, the theory has been circulated that the coup in Niger achieves two goals for Wagner and the Russian government. Firstly, Wagner may now be able to operate in Niger in exchange for uranium, which can then be used in Russia for military and/or civilian purposes, or sold on international markets.
Secondly, Wagner may develop the relationships necessary to divert significant amounts of Uranium away from the French energy market, jeopardising the price of energy in France and bringing an energy-borne cost of living crisis there that countries dependent on Russian gas have been experiencing in the rest of Europe. This aspect of the coup will develop further in the coming weeks and is set for much speculation.
The Ukraine War and Global Fertiliser Supply
Much of Niger’s land is used to produce food. Despite this, the country’s largest import is rice, at a value of $275m. This demonstrates a caloric deficit in the country’s domestic food supply and leaves Niger’s food supply vulnerable to international pressures. For instance, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has left the developing world in the lurch. Russia is the largest agricultural fertiliser producer in the world. As such, the supply of such fertilisers has decreased all across the African continent. This is because most fertilisers are produced using coal or natural gas, the global price of which has led to a sharp increase in the price of fertilisers and subsequently food. As a result, the president of the African Development Bank predicts a 20% drop in food production across the continent. At present, around 44% of Nigerien children are malnourished, and around 18% of the population was predicted to have reached crisis levels of food insecurity between June 2022 and June 2023, this was twice as many as the same 12 month period previously. Niger’s population is also uniquely young, with an average population of around 14, which makes the population particularly exposed to food shortages as such a large proportion of the population are children.
A recent emergency response plan from the Nigerien government was budgeted at $280m; however, it became clear that it included a $200m shortfall. Additionally, the UN Food Programme has slashed food rations by 50% since January 2022 in response to the increasing global scarcity of food. So many children are now entering clinics with malnutrition that clinics across the country no longer have the resources to treat them, with many families not even being able to travel to clinics, being forced to watch their children die at home.
The Silent Pandemic of Climate Change
The Ukraine war is one reason for the rise in hunger, but another is climate change. Thousands of farmers in Niger are facing the oncoming storm of what has been called the “silent pandemic”. Niger is especially vulnerable to global warming, with temperatures rising there at a rate 1.5 times faster than the rest of the world. Nigerien farmers are being forced to adapt to their new environment as rainfall both becomes more scarce and increasingly erratic, leading to a cycle of droughts that are progressively eroding the 14% of the country’s land that is arable. As a result, the nation has not had a good harvest for around a decade, with 2021 seeing a 39% drop in cereal production.
Not only can we expect further drops in quantity production but also in quality. Changing conditions in which many grains are grown also have an impact on the quality of that supply and the nutritional benefit of the final product crop. For instance, high levels of atmospheric CO2 lead to a reduction in protein percentage. This, combined with high temperatures limiting the supply of glutenin protein polymers, is likely to have a negative effect on the ability of grain to be turned into dough and thus baked into processed food products such as bread. Additionally, heat stress over 30oC (with temperatures in Niger often reaching 40oC) reduces the rate at which starch accumulates, leading to grains grown in hotter environments containing fewer calories than those grown in more temperate conditions. With the world heating up, the problem of reduced calorie content in grain suggests obvious problems whereby no costs are reduced in production but the final product becomes progressively of less nutritional worth as the planet’s temperature rises.
These factors combine to create what is known as the “lean season”, the period between harvests of about four months. The lean season begins earlier every year, leading many to abandon their villages and settlements in the knowledge that to remain is to ensure starvation, and the only chance they have of survival resides in fleeing either to the cities or relatively aimlessly through the rural areas.
The World’s Fastest Population Growth and the Traitor Narrative
President Bazoum had attempted to make reducing family size a core tenet of his policy programme, with Niger having the world’s highest birth rate. Niger’s population is on track to triple by 2050, from 24 million to 68 million people. For many, this seems to allow Niger to share in the benefits of other populous nations such as China, India, and Nigeria in gaining political clout with the population. However, there are many warnings being made on the link between a high birth rate and rampant poverty.
The attitude most prevalent in Niger, however, is that there is much land but not enough people to fill it. In fact, Garé Amadou, editor in chief of the La Nation newspaper, states that many in the country believe the concerns over population growth are “just something that worries western countries” and that a large proportion of Nigeriens believe that there is a clandestine foreign agenda to contain Africa’s burgeoning population.
Bazoum's public pronouncement of his negative feelings towards rapid population growth has been an act of self-sabotage, especially in combination with specific policy measures. Many in Niger are not comfortable with a president, who has banned his ministers from polygamous marriage and declared the practise “a bad thing” in a country where a third of the population lives in such a marriage. Bazoum has also publicly advocated for the establishment of all girls boarding schools, where children would be educated away from their families by the state. Both of these measures are rooted in the noble goal of keeping women and girls in education for as long as possible. However, many commentators, both within and without Nigerien society, find it hard to comprehend how its president can believe that these measures would ever be popular.
In fact, these public pronouncements have been read by many within the country as rejections of Nigerien culture and the prescriptions of the Koran. This has created a common view that Bazoum is what in the west would be referred to as “virtue signalling” or “making a contribution to moral discourse that aims to convince others that one is ‘morally respectable”. In this case, the Nigerien population views the “others” that Bazoum is trying to convince of his moral respectability as western observers and authorities. This has contributed to the image of the President as being too pro-western, anti-tradition, and a puppet of the French and American governments.
However, almost all involved in the subject, both nationally and internationally, agree that an average of below three children per woman, is a necessary precondition for rapid economic development. Additionally, the Koran does not advocate for the maximum number of wives and children, but for men to have many children and more than one wife as long as they can be provided for, something that Niger’s economy is not capable of doing so healthily. Additionally, many religious leaders in the country are showing the way on increasing the use of contraception to prevent couples from having children they are unable to afford.
There has also been a significant cultural transition in maternity wards, with wives now giving birth in the company of their husbands, something quite rare until relatively recently. Furthermore, pregnant women are receiving more attention and care from their partners during pregnancy. However, the director of Issaka Gazoby maternity hospital in the capital Niamey, Mady Nayama, states that “population growth in Africa is frightening” and that the lack of resources available in the country to sustain such a fast growing population leads to intense poverty with “poverty that turns these children into vagabonds.” Niger’s birth rate is still the highest in the world but has been slowly declining for around 20 years. However, Nayama claims that many are still resistant to change and that “our religion tells us that, if God gives a child, he will feed it. But that’s not happening.”
If Bazoum had communicated the link between lowering the birth rate and increasing economic growth to the population, in addition to leaning into the efforts of religious leaders and medical professionals to increase the use of contraception, he may have been aided in steering the political ship away from the erroneous course of mistrust in the nation’s political institutions and making his own voice the herald of unpopular cultural change.
The End of Nigerian Fuel Subsidies and the Collapse of the Black Market
Most coups and coup attempts in Niger come about to secure the revenues of uranium and/or oil exports from the country. Although, it is not yet certain that this is the case here. The motivations of the coup artists remain elusive, with only their public statements to rely on, the candour of which cannot yet be evaluated. What seems more likely is that the very presence of oil and gold in the country has contributed to political instability, in addition to oil price shocks as a result of policy decisions made in neighbouring countries.
Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu announced during his inauguration speech in May that the Nigerian “fuel subsidy is gone!”, with measures already taking effect in the country. The price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) rose rapidly to somewhere between NGN 488 per litre in the capital and NGN 555 per litre in Borno State.
Niger has also been affected. The major population centres of the south have become dependent on cheap, smuggled, Nigerian-subsidised petrol. Usually arriving at illegal fuel warehouses and being sold on the black market via touts waving petrol canisters by the roadside. The sudden end of subsidies has led to shortages in Niger’s most populated areas and sharp price rises. Previously, a litre of petrol could be bought for around 250 francs (around 45 cents US), but this has risen to around 600 Francs, more expensive than even at regular petrol stations. The rush on those petrol stations is especially severe in the south but is occurring all over the country. According to officials at the nation’s oil ministry, the price of petrol at regular stations has increased tenfold as demand at the pump increases. Consequently, transport costs have increased exponentially. For instance, at markets in the south, the price of a 100 kg sack of maize has risen by 4,000 Francs to 28,000, worsening an already precarious situation around the country’s food supply.
SONIDEP, the Nigerien Company for Oil Products, is coping with the sudden shortfall with reserves from the country’s only oil refinery. However, those reserves will not last forever, and eventually a decision will have to be made on whether to purchase fuel from overseas or begin to operate its sole refinery at maximum output.
The black market also functioned as a primary source of employment for many young men in the south of the country. It is now feared that many of this working-age population will be forced to turn to crime, or worse, to put increasingly expensive food on the table.
Conclusion
This political risk report highlights several key factors contributing to the instability in Niger. The recent ousting of President Bazoum by the presidential guard, leading to the suspension of political institutions, underscores the country's historical vulnerability to coups and power struggles. The precarious security situation, marked by increasing violence from militant Islamist groups in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin, poses a significant challenge to the nation's stability. Additionally, growing Russian influence left Niger isolated as a bastion of unpopular former colonisers.
Niger's vulnerability to external factors is evident in its food supply situation. Reliance on food imports, particularly rice, coupled with the disruption caused by the Ukraine war and global fertiliser supply issues, exacerbates food insecurity and malnutrition in the country. Climate change is also a critical factor affecting agricultural productivity, contributing to the "silent pandemic" of climate change.
The trajectory of Niger's population growth is a matter of concern, with an anticipated tripling of the population by 2050. The government's attempts to address this issue, such as advocating for smaller family sizes and promoting girls' education, have been met with resistance, leading to perceptions of the president being out of touch with the country's cultural norms and influenced by Western interests.
Furthermore, the recent end of fuel subsidies in Nigeria has had adverse effects on Niger, leading to shortages and price hikes in the country, exacerbating the already challenging economic situation.
Niger faces a complex web of political, security, economic, and social challenges that require careful and strategic management to foster stability and address the underlying causes of instability. Only time will tell if this comes to pass.
State of supply: uranium in Europe
Despite being a strategic commodity, uranium has maintained a relatively low profile in the news even as the war in Ukraine continues and Europe’s energy crisis unfolds. This is surprising considering nuclear power, which depends on uranium, contributes roughly 25% of the EU’s total electricity generation. Russia itself has long been a key supplier of uranium and nuclear fuel to the EU, but the future of this relationship is now far from certain. For the moment, Rosatom, Russia’s state-owned and primary vendor of nuclear products, has managed to skirt EU sanctions and continue operating, but how long can this last and what does it mean for nuclear energy in Europe?
In terms of unenriched Uranium ore, Russia is the third largest supplier to the EU. In 2021 it accounted for 19.69% of supply, just behind Kazakhstan at 22.99% and Nigeria at 24.26%. This equates to 2,358 tU (tons of raw Uranium) and roughly €210 million paid to Russian vendors in 2021. However, Russia’s position in third place can be somewhat misleading, according to the World Nuclear Association and other sources, Rosatom owns significant stakes in uranium mining and processing in Kazakhstan. Nigeria has been ramping up its supply of uranium ore in recent years with an increase of 13.7% between 2020 and 2021. Considering the ongoing expansion of mining operations in the country, Nigeria may emerge as a leading supplier for Europe, if output can be maintained.
Unenriched uranium ore is only half of the equation when it comes to generating nuclear energy. The other key ingredient is refined or enriched uranium, suitable for nuclear fuel production. Europe is dependent on foreign enrichment services. While Europe itself manages some 62% of its enrichment needs, as of 2021, 31% is still sourced from Russian providers. The two primary Russian providers, according to Euratom, are Tenex and TVEL, which are both subsidiaries of Rosatom. Over the past few years, EU domestic enrichment rates have decreased, between 2019 and 2020 alone Euratom marked a 9% decrease in its share. In order to ensure security of supply in this sector, Europe must reverse this trend and look for third country partners. The current non-Russian and non-EU supply of enrichment services amounts to an astonishingly low 7%, a critical failure in market diversification.
The other side to the issue with enriched Uranium supply is the specific fuel configuration for reactors. Of the 103 active nuclear reactors in the EU, 18 are of the Russian designed VVER-440 or VVER-1000 models and depend greatly on fuel supply from TVEL. While many of these reactors are holdovers from original Soviet construction and are set to be phased out in the long term, they still represent an imminent threat. Mitigating this however, the US’s Westinghouse, a leading provider of nuclear infrastructure, is currently expanding its capacity to produce fuel at least for the VVER-1000 models; this has already been successful in Ukraine.
The situation for Europe’s uranium supply is precarious and the fact Russia’s supply has not yet collapsed, is of little consolation. Nonetheless, there are options on the table and unlike other commodities, uranium has the potential for a diverse supply chain with multiple partners. Two key questions are how long will it take to reorganise these highly complex, infrastructure heavy supply chains and how long will the EU continue its economic relationship with Russia?