Intelligence Briefing - Azerbaijani military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh
By: Callum Fraser
SUMMARY
At 1:22 pm AMT/AZT (11:22 am CEST) on 19th September 2023, Azerbaijan’s Armed Forces announced the commencement of a military operation in the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) region labelled as an ‘anti-terrorist’ operation against militia groups from the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh of ethnic Armenian origin. This operation comes after days of military buildup along the NK’s and Armenia’s borders and months of stalled peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan. There is documented footage of Azerbaijan's use of artillery and drones, and militia within NK. Azerbaijan’s narrative of targeting “legitimate” military objectives will likely affect the civilian population in nearby areas to strategic and military infrastructure, having already caused an increase in civilian casualties.
CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS
Nagorno-Karabakh is a region with a majority ethnic Armenian population located within the internationally recognised borders of Azerbaijan. This territory has been the focus of two wars between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with the most recent ending in 2020. NK is connected to Armenia via the Lachin corridor. This route has been subject to blockade by Azerbaijani forces for several months prior to this conflict.
Since 2020, as a result of the Moscow-led ceasefire agreement, Russian peacekeepers have been deployed to prevent military conflict within the region with a mandate until 2025. Maria Zakharova, Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, has announced that Russia is in contact with Baku over its “anti-terrorist operation”. Zakharova in Telegram announced that “Russian peacekeepers will continue to fulfil their duties”, and they are in contact with NK Armenian and Azerbaijan’s authorities to reach a ceasefire.
Recent footage has shown a military buildup along the borders of NK, Azerbaijani vehicles marked with letters, most prominently an upside down “A” (“∀”). Baku and its exclave Nakhchivan have made suspected military cargo flights.
Azerbaijan Ministry of Defence (MoD) claims that local anti-terrorist operations, spurred on by two vehicle explosions caused by landmines, seek to disarm Armenian forces operating within NK. The government has announced artillery fire against military targets. The Karabakh city Stepanakert has been subjected to artillery fire. Local news outlets report at least 23 wounded and at least 2 civilian casualties.
As of 2 pm AMT/AZT (12 pm CEST), the Armenian MoD declared that the situation on the border of Armenia remains stable. The conflict has remained limited to within Azerbaijan’s borders. Around 5 pm AMT/AZT (2 pm CEST), Armenian Prime Minister (PM) Nikol Pashinyan stated that Armenia will not intervene militarily. At roughly 6 pm AMT/AZT (3 pm CEST), Azerbaijan announced that the military operation’s objectives are close to being achieved.
Azerbaijan’s MoD sends SMS messages and leaflets to Nagorno-Karabakh residents, directing them to “shelters” in the Lachin Corridor.
Protests have erupted on Republic Square in Yerevan over Pashinyan’s decision not to intervene.
The movement of the Azerbaijani forces with heavy weapons systems toward the border with Armenia last week. Visegrád 24
ANALYSIS
Escalation
Azerbaijan appears to be attempting to secure NK through military means after unsuccessful attempts following years of negotiations. The use of a terrorist attack as a premise to justify military intervention allows room for further conflict escalation, depending on the success of current measures.
In terms of logistics, Armenia’s military is significantly inferior to Azerbaijan’s. Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan has stated that "Armenia will not go to war with Azerbaijan over NK”. Ultimately, it is unlikely that the Armenian military, without international support, would have a significant impact on the conclusion of this conflict.
There are concerns Azerbaijan may seek to escalate the conflict externally to acquire the Zangezur corridor (Syunik region) from Armenia. Apart from troop buildups on the Armenian-Azerbaijan border, there have been no concrete signals that this is intended by Azerbaijan in the near future.
Russia’s Peacekeeping Role
Russia’s peacekeepers within NK were supposedly notified minutes before Azeri forces launched the current operation. Meanwhile, the Russian Duma has announced that peacekeepers have “no right to use weapons as long as there is no threat to themselves”. Armenian mass media has claimed that Russian peacekeepers have provided detailed coordinates of military positions within NK. This suggests that Russia is likely to maintain a passive role in the ongoing conflict and allow Azerbaijan full access to achieve its objectives.
Armenian Reaction
Pashinyan has clearly stated that Armenia will not go to war over NK. This has been met with widespread public disapproval. Similarly, Armenia has expressed concern over the lack of action at the hands of Russian peacekeepers during their mandate, signalling a further breakdown in trust with its military ally Russia. Due to Armenia's strategically unfavourable geopolitical position [as historically caught between major Western and Middle Eastern forces] and current weak military, this could cause Armenia to attempt to rapidly transition into a Western or Iranian aligned state.
Footage of an Azerbaijani aerial attack upon a suspected military radio-technical installation. You Tube: Azərbaycan Respublikası Müdafiə Nazirliyi
Humanitarian Risks
The “legitimate” military objectives pursued by the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan in NK are likely not restricted to military-type infrastructure, and instead, Azerbaijan will likely use this narrative to justify attacks on government or residential buildings. The ambivalence on what constitutes a target will very likely affect the civilian population in areas close to target buildings, thus increasing civilian casualties. Azerbaijan's efforts to redirect residents of Nagorno-Karabakh to the Lachin corridor will most likely be insufficient to prevent civilian casualties.
Geopolitical Shifts
Armenia’s long-term military ally Russia, currently engaged in its war against Ukraine, has remained passive throughout the process of peace negotiations since 2020. Several other states have risen up to fill the role that Russia is unable to maintain within the South Caucasus region. Turkey, an ethnic ally of Azerbaijan, has attempted to sponsor 4-way peace talks. Meanwhile, Iran has asserted that it will not accept any territorial boundary shifts within the Caucasus. Concurrently, Israel, a longstanding rival of Iran, has transported over 100 flights worth of military systems to Azerbaijan. Therefore, one of the biggest changes in the dynamics of NK tensions is that without a dominant Russian influence, the conflict has attracted the attention of a wider selection of competing regional powers. With waning trust in Russian security agreements, Armenia will likely attempt to develop stronger military relations with Iran, the US, or India.
Russia's passive response to Azerbaijan’s military engagement within NK, coupled with Turkey’s full support of the operation, signals a pivotal shift within the power balance of the region. This very likely creates favourable conditions for Azerbaijan to accomplish its strategic goal of securing Nagorno-Karabakh due to the legitimization of regional powers and Russia’s passive role in mediating a solution.
CONCLUSIONS
Considering the increasing hostilities in the Russian-Ukrainian war and despite the Kremlin's interests in keeping Armenia closer to its political orbit, Russia is likely to pursue a passive role in mediating a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Moreover, the mentioned geopolitical shift in the region and the legitimization of regional powers create more favourable conditions for Baku. Consequently, Azerbaijan will likely accomplish its strategic goal of securing Nagorno-Karabakh with the renewed military hostilities.