Intelligence Briefing - Israel-Palestine crisis
By: Fateh Gill, Ciaran Murray, Lucas Snarski, Kateryna Anisova, Marina Tovar
BLUF
On the morning of October 7th, Hamas launched a surprise attack on southern Israel that has caused hundreds of casualties and ongoing battles and airstrikes near the border and in the Gaza Strip. In a startling escalation of the decades-long conflict between Israel and the Palestinian territories, Hamas’ Al-Qassam Brigades and the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) engaged in a succession of intense military exchanges in the air, at sea, and on land. Hamas has successfully captured military installations and seized hostages and equipment before IDF forces could successfully engage. The offensive, designated “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood” by Hamas, coincided with the Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah, marking the conclusion of the week-long Sukkot celebration. It also falls one day after the fiftieth anniversary of the start of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. Hamas says the operation responds to continued tensions at Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem and increased settler violence. However, the scale of operations likely indicates long-term planning and preparation and an intelligence failure for the Israeli forces.
Summary of Events
Hamas's Sudden Offensive: At 06:30 local time, Hamas unleashed a bombardment of thousands of missiles aimed at Tel Aviv's northern outskirts. Jerusalem came under fire at 8:14, and the climax of the attack lasted until approximately 10:30. Despite the subsequent decrease in frequency, sporadic rocket fire continued.
In a novel strategy, Hamas militants used motorized paragliders to infiltrate Israeli territory, with evidence of prior training sessions for this technique emerging on Telegram. Ground incursions on jeeps and motorbikes followed, leading to gun conflicts in numerous locations including Zikim Naval Base, Kfar Aza, and Sderot, among others, along with attempted naval incursions.
The Al Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, led ground assaults on several military targets and population centers. An attack on Nahal Oz military base resulted in the capture of the base and the seizure of military equipment, including at least one Israeli IWI Tavor X95 assault rifle and 1 M16A1 carbine (very graphic image) and at least 6 Namer heavy APCs along with other vehicles. There are videos of successful drone grenade attacks against a Merkava tank and IDF soldiers, mirroring tactics used in recent conflicts..
Mounting Humanitarian Impact: Emerging reports list casualties at around 100 Israelis killed, and 740 wounded, as well as 198 Palestinians killed and 1,610 wounded. There are unconfirmed reports of militants targeting civilian vehicles with gunfire.
Numerous videos purport to show Israeli hostages being brought into Gaza, both IDF soldiers and civilians. There are reportedly more than 50 Israeli hostages. Furthermore, Hamas claims to have captured Major General Nimrod Aloni, the current Depth Corps commander and former Gaza Division commander.
Missiles have struck targets throughout Israel. A missile struck the Rutenberg Power Station in Ashkelon, Israel's second-largest power facility, and internet connectivity has dropped in Tel Aviv and Gaza, implying further damage to infrastructure.
Israeli Counter-Offensive: In response, the IDF launched "Operation Iron Swords," aiming to neutralize Hamas infrastructure in Gaza.This included airstrikes against a "terrorist cell" near the Erez Crossing and 17 Hamas military compounds, four operational command centers, and other targets within Gaza.
Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu has declared Israel “is at war”. As of 17:30, fighting reportedly continued in 22 locations, and four IDF divisions had been deployed to the Gaza border area to join 31 battalions already there.
Reports indicate Hezbollah has declared its intention to attack Israel from the north in the event of an IDF ground incursion into Gaza. Videos purport to show Hezbollah fighters attempting to reach the Lebanon-Israel border.
Figure 1. Reported areas of violence as of 18:00h (local time). Airstrikes are those done by the Israeli Air Force, and explosions are likely the result of Hamas rockets. Map elaborated by Lucas Snarski
Analysis
Short-term analysis: Escalation and Likely Direct Confrontation
With the information analyzed until 18:00 CEST time, the high number of Israeli soldiers and civilians captured likely suggests Hamas will have a strong negotiating position if talks with Israel occur. Considering the significant numbers of Palestinian prisoners released in previous exchanges, repatriations of Israeli citizens will likely result in a significant influx of experienced Palestinian fighters returning to Gaza and the West Bank. This could increase the likelihood of terror attacks in Israel as these individuals return to militant groups. If Palestinian groups succeed in this pursuit, hostage-taking will likely return as a significant weapon leveraged against the Israeli state by Palestinian groups.
Hamas tactics, such as motorized paragliders for infiltration and extensive ground incursions, likely indicate a shift in their military strategy. The swift seizure of military installations and the use of munitions delivered by drones demonstrate a high level of planning and coordination. This represents a change in Hamas’s military capabilities and a challenge to Israel’s conventional superiority. In this line, Israel’s “Operation Iron Swords” seeking to neutralize Hamas’s infrastructure and restore security, will very likely be a challenge due to Hamas’s guerrilla tactics and use of drones. Israel’s use of “all necessary means” will likely indicate a forceful and proportionate response to end the Hezbollah threat and establish security in Gaza. The United States full support for Israel’s operation will likely provide additional military capability for Israel's counteroffensive, likely reducing time and potential casualties in Israel’s counteroffensive.
The parties could likely decrease the attack intensity due to the increased loss of civilian lives on both sides. As evidenced by attacks on civilian vehicles and hostage-taking, the deliberate targeting of civilians almost certainly exacerbates the humanitarian crisis. Both parties’ use of indiscriminate armaments almost certainly increases the danger to civilian populations. This is exacerbated by the attack on the Rutenberg Power Station in Ashkelon due to its implications for emergency response and medical care. Power outages can likely hamper the delivery of essential services and inhibit the ability to provide critical medical care to those in need.
International organizations very likely face significant obstacles in delivering aid and coordinating relief efforts due to the high number of casualties and limited internet connectivity. Urgent action is almost certainly required to ensure emergency healthcare services, protection for vulnerable populations, and humanitarian aid for displaced individuals. The United Nations will very likely request the mobilization of humanitarian resources, including providing medical supplies, facilitating access to essential services, and creating secure areas for displaced people.
Israel’s Intelligence Failure
The sophistication of the Gaza offensive likely indicates widespread cooperation and large-scale planning among Palestinian groups, such as Martyr Izz El-Din Al-Qassam Brigades, Saraya Al-Quds, Al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade, Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades, and Al-Nasser Salah Al-Deen Brigade. Hamas’s significant operation, widespread unpredictability, and the inability to prevent the offensive very likely demonstrate a failure of Israeli intelligence services, likely highlighting significant flaws in Israel’s intelligence collection and analysis capabilities. Future inquiries will likely result in significant reform of the Israeli intelligence services and increased funding, heightening their domestic and international capabilities. This also highlights a failure in Israeli military strategy to account for these developments.
Novel methods of infiltration and attack likely suggest that Palestinian militant groups are constantly evolving and maintaining the technical capabilities to facilitate such evolution. Palestinian militants’s lack of resistance as they crossed the border and advanced into Israeli territory likely shows significant lapses in Israeli physical security and a failure to maintain operational readiness. These vulnerabilities exposure will likely present opportunities for other militant groups like Hezbollah or ISIS to conduct attacks on Israel. The failure of Israel’s standing army to effectively defend against an attack from comparatively weaker militias will likely cause public outrage in Israel, adding to existing discontent with the government. However, support for an aggressive stance towards Gaza and the West Bank will likely increase amongst the Israeli population.
Geopolitical Consequences and Regional dynamics
The timing of Hamas's assault on southern Israel has significant geopolitical consequences. The coincidence of the Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah and the anniversary of the Arab-Israeli War of 1973 very likely suggests an attempt to exploit the region's religious and historical sensitivities. Hamas likely meticulously planned and executed the offensive, demonstrating high organization and coordination.
If the IDF forces ground incursion into Gaza, Hezbollah's declaration that it will support Hamas by launching attacks from the north will be a likely scenario. The threat of conflict with Hezbollah will likely factor into Israel's strategy for retaliation. The threat of a separate front opening in the north could likely reduce Israel's willingness to engage in a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip. However, given the high casualties suffered and hostages taken, Israel will almost certainly conduct such an operation regardless. If Hezbollah engages with Israeli forces in the north, there will likely be a significant increase in Israeli casualties, a major deterioration in Israel-Lebanon diplomatic relations, and the likely potential for the conflict to spread beyond Gaza's borders. Hezbollah's potential engagement further complicates the region's geopolitical dynamics, particularly concerning Iran's regional ambitions and Israel's security concerns.
Saudi Arabia's delicate balancing act is reflected in its response to the conflict. Saudi Arabia's recent endeavors to develop closer ties with Israel, despite its historical support for the Palestinian cause, illustrate the country's response. While the country attempts to maintain neutrality while navigating these complicated regional dynamics, it still condemns the violence towards Palestinians without overtly aligning with either party.