Intelligence Briefing - Israel-Palestine crisis II (day two)
Analysts: Lucas Snarski, Eleni Anagnostopoulou, Christopher Dufty, Guido Larocca, Moustapha Traboulsi, Apoorva Iyer, Jonathan Topaz, and Marina Tovar
This brief analyses data and developments from 07 October 18:00h (CEST) to 08 October 19:00h (CEST)
Figure 1. Reported ground engagements, Hamas rocket attacks, and IDF airstrikes in the 24 hours preceding 18:00 on October 8th. This map does not contain all information on rocket attacks and airstrikes, which have not been able to geolocate Incidents in Mount Dov, Shebaa Farms, and Kfarchouba are in northern Israel/southern Lebanon, and are not depicted here. Map made by Lucas Snarski.
BLUF
Israel officially declared the state of war following Hamas’ surprise attack on October 7, 2023, with intense fighting in Southern Israel and Gaza. Hamas and Israel continue to exchange rocket attacks and ground fighting, reported in at least seven border communities. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have mobilized troops to the southern border and launched a series of airstrikes against targets within Gaza purported to be occupied by Hamas and Islamic Jihad military targets. In the north, Hezbollah claims to have fired rockets in Shebaa Farms and Mount Dov, with the IDF returning artillery fire. Current IDF ground operations have focused on removing Hamas forces from the Gaza envelope and destroying targets within Gaza through airstrikes. IDF’s counteroffensive in Gaza is an almost certain scenario, very likely escalating the conflict. More than 100 Israeli hostages in Gaza complicate operations further due to potential civilian loss of life. Narratives from the Israeli government and Hamas very likely indicate that no de-escalation or mediation is a short-term scenario, and it is almost certain that escalation will continue in the following hours.
Summary of Events
Hamas activity in Gaza and Southern Israel
Declaration of state of war: Israel's Prime Minister’s office has announced that Israel is officially in a state of war following a security cabinet vote for the first time since 1973. Israel has activated Article 40, allowing it to conduct activities in the preparation and execution of war. Israel is currently mobilizing a large portion of its military reserve.
Status of ground operations in Gaza envelope, and troop deployments: Israeli Air Force (IAF) reports using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) to strike militants approaching the Gaza border fence throughout the night. Israeli airstrikes have hit a reported 426 targets in Gaza. IDF claims to have carried out airstrikes targeting Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad sites used for military command, banking, intelligence, and weapons production and storage. Multiple residential towers have been destroyed. On another front, there are claims (unconfirmed) of a new incursion reaching Highway 232 near the Gaza border, possibly involving the exchange of gunfire between IDF soldiers and Hamas. On other developments, around 15:00 local time, IDF forces launched a MIM-104 Patriot missile from a base near Safed, Israel, with the intention of intercepting a suspected incursion of a UAV into Israeli airspace. IDF later clarified that the target was not a hostile UAV and posed no danger to local residents.
Casualties: The Palestinian Ministry of Health reports 313 Palestinian citizens have been killed and 1,990 injured, while the Times of Israel reports that up to 600 Israeli bodies have been found. Furthermore, over 250 bodies have been discovered at the Site of a “Music Festival for Peace” in Southern Israel, reportedly killed by Hamas.
Evacuation of Settlements: The Israeli army called for the complete evacuation of settlements surrounding the Gaza fence within the next 24 hours. Israeli forces have regained control of many of the settlements initially infiltrated by Hamas forces yesterday.
Hezbollah developments in Lebanon
Attack on Sheeba farms (Lebanon): Hezbollah launched guided rockets and artillery on three posts in Shebaa Farms, a small strip of land at the Lebanese-Syrian border and Israeli-occupied Golan Heights; no immediate reports of casualties. Artillery was reported to hit three Israeli posts “in solidarity with the Palestinian people”. In this line, Hezbollah has stated through contact with the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) that they will look to attack Israel conditional on an Israeli ground operation into Gaza.
Counteroffensive? Footage is emerging of Israeli combined arms forces deploying in force to the staging area of the Lebanon border. It remains unclear if Israel’s response is an effort to dissuade Hezbollah's involvement or a response to a credible belief that Hezbollah will become involved. A similar military build-up is observed in the south, moving towards Gaza.
International responses
Iran: Hamas spokesperson claims Iran supported Hamas' surprise attack on October 7, 2023. Israeli President Herzog directly lays the blame on Iran. Allegedly, the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces said the “Palestinian military operation made the rulers believe their nightmare of collapse came to life”. Reportedly, in separate phone calls with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Islamic Jihad leader Ziyad al-Nakhalah, Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi congratulated the former on their 'proud operation' and 'great victory'.
Kuwait: Kuwait released a statement blaming the attacks on continued violence against Palestinians and Israel’s violation at the Al-Aqsa mosque.
Türkiye: Türkiye calls for de-escalation and implementing the two-state solution, where Türkiye’s PM Erdogan was determined to “ramp up diplomatic efforts to achieve calm”. Yet, Israel's Ambassador to Türkiye, Irit Lillian, stated it is too early to discuss mediation offers between Israel and Hamas.
In contrast, Qatar and the UAE released neutral statements on de-escalation.
Analysis
Direct confrontation: short-term analysis
Israeli operations will likely expand beyond assisting wounded civilians and military personnel, evacuating affected towns and communities, and observing the added complexities of hostage-taking and border breaches. Israel’s mobilization of reservists, formation of a ‘war government’, and activation of article 40 likely suggest Israel is posturing for a full-scale ground operation in Gaza. Israel’s full-scale ground operation is likely conditional on the finalization of reserve mobilization and deployment. Due to the processes’ lack of immediateness, Israeli naval activities, and air and artillery strikes will very likely shape operations for an eventual ground operation. President Netanyahu is allegedly being pressured into a full-scale ground invasion of Gaza. Such a large-scale military response would likely escalate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from the limited confrontations over the past years.
While there are still confirmed groups of Hamas forces operating within isolated pockets inside Israel, continued IDF operations could likely destroy these groups in the upcoming hours if the Israeli counteroffensive occurs. On another note, Israel will almost certainly look to kill or imprison senior Hamas officials, potentially Mohammed Deif, the supreme commander of the Hamas military wing, to create a lack of leadership and power vacuum within Hamas’ military structure, likely to create chaos and lack of coordination in the ongoing attack.
As IDF advances into Gaza and Hamas counterattacks, civilian casualties will almost certainly continue to rise. Israel will unlikely conduct a special operation to rescue hostages as it would limit their potential operation in Gaza due to diverting resources and focus. A prisoner swap will unlikely take place in the short term as Israel is likely focused on preparing an operation to restore security in the country. Negotiations occur to swap hostages - if these take place - will almost certainly be after Israel’s potential counteroffensive.
Small-scale Hezbollah activities, namely cross-border rocket strikes on Israeli positions on Israel’s northern border, coupled with Hezbollah’s threat of involvement in the conflict if IDF troops enter the Gaza strip, very likely indicates Hezbollah could engage in direct conflict with Israeli forces. A likely scenario of increased activity in the next 24 to 48 hours is likely, as the IDF could very likely begin ground operations in Gaza.
Political scenario
Due to Israel’s government's public criticism for not dealing with the threat of Hamas specifically and Palestinian violence generally, the government will likely give a “tough” retaliation to Hamas’s surprise attack. Coupled with further developments, particularly Israeli civilian deaths, and the hostage situation, the current situation has very likely allowed the Israeli government to shape public opinion to showcase it can tackle the Hamas security threat. Israeli opposition party leaders, including Benny Gantz and Avigdor Liberman, have expressed willingness to join an “emergency government”, expected to command up to 110 seats of the 120-large Knesset. If this scenario occurs, it would very likely reflect broad support in Israeli public opinion for a full-scale ground counteroffensive in Gaza.