Intelligence Assessment: Kinburn Spit
Alina Vrabie, Marina Tovar, Augusto Sisani, Alex Brookes
In light of the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, this article covers the strategic importance of the Kinburn Spit, on the Kinburn Peninsula in the Black Sea, and the possible implications this could have for developments in the area. Our analysis includes the implications of the area’s geography, an assessment of past military activity on its territory, current status of the area, as well as future considerations.
1. General Overview of the Kinburn Spit
Geographic Position
The Kinburn Spit is a spit in the Mykolaiv Raion, Mykolaiv Oblast, consisting of the narrow tip of the Kinburn Peninsula in southern Ukraine’s, jutting into the Black Sea. Its 10-kilometre-long natural extension into the Black Sea provides a strategic chokepoint for the Dnipro and South Bug rivers, which provide control over access to the primary ports located in cities of Kherson and Mykolaiv, serving as a dividing point for Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts. It is located in the South of Kherson Oblast, which is currently under Russian control, besides Kherson City, which was liberated, and near the Dnipro River. The city provides strategic access to the Kherson Oblast and the control of the hydric resources, like access to fresh water. On November 11, 2022, Ukrainian forces’ counteroffensive resulted in reclaiming the west bank of the Dnipro River, located in the southern Kherson oblast. Currently, the two banks of the Dnipro River are split between Russian and Ukrainian control.
Figure 1: Assessed Control of Terrain in Ukraine as of December 5, 2022
Russian forces have used the Spit to routinely conduct missile and artillery strikes on the Ukrainian-controlled Black Sea Coast and throughout the Southern Mykolaiv Oblast. Ukraine’s control of the Kinburn Spit will allow for direct logistic control of ports and increase their naval activity in the Black Sea and nearby regions. Furthermore, the spit’s location, which is away from the Russian Army’s 152-mm artillery, will likely result in Ukraine’s increased naval activity not being affected. The Kinburn Spit is close to the Zaporizhzhya Oblast, where the Zaporizhzhya Power Plant is located, currently under Ukrainian control. Ukraine’s control of the power plant provides them with a strategic asset as Russia has used the nuclear threat to leverage in negotiations with Ukraine, decreasing Russia’s leverage power. Ukraine’s control of the Spit would allow the Ukrainian military to better control, oversee and supervise military operations on the left east bank in Kherson Oblast. In addition, because of the ongoing counteroffensive in areas near the Dnipro River, logistical infrastructure, like bridges, and Russian arm convoys are destroyed, difficulting terrestrial transport within the area. Thus, due to limited access to roads and connecting points, like bridges, the Kinburn Spit acquires importance as most access can be done by the sea.
Terrain of the Spit
On Thursday, 24 November 2022, the Ukrainian military allegedly landed on the Kinburn Spit in small boats to conduct a counter-offensive. There is no public information available regarding the weapons and ammunition dimensions the Ukrainian military is employing and the Russian defence on the spit. In this sense, the Kinburn Spit is a logistically complicated area due to the terrain's nature and soil, as the terrain is a mix of woods, dunes, salt flats, and marshes. Thus, the support of mobile forces to conduct significant counter-attacks and countermove the Russian artillery and arms located in the Kinburn Spit would require complex organisation due to the uneven mix of soil of the Spit. The Kinburn Spit’s nature will very likely make it difficult for the support of mobile forces to conduct counter-offensives, likely impacting the success of the offensive in the area. Due to a probable lack of heavy artillery and machinery placement, the Ukrainian military will probably employ Special Operation Forces (SOF), using little heavy equipment and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
The Artificial Island of Prevomaisky
The Pervomaisky Island is a Ukrainian artificial island built in 1895 that holds a unique placement, becoming a crucial asset for the Russian military. The artificial Island holds a fort to defend the Dnieper-Bug estuary, has served throughout history to prevent enemies from advancing, and has held special forces units during Soviet times. In the context of the Ukraine-Russia war, Pervomaisky Island holds a particular location as it is located near the Kinburn Spit, in the northern region, and at the exit of Dnieper Bay. Thus, the Ukrainian military offensive in the Kinburn Spit can be conditioned by the role of the Russian military and the attacks conducted from the Island.
Figure 2: Pervomaisky Island
2. Activity on the Kinburn Spit
Russian Control in the Past
Control of the Kinburn Spit was not a key military objective at the beginning of the Russian campaign until May-June. Russian forces could have taken full control of the spit at the early stages of the invasion after they occupied Kherson oblast and the city of Kherson in March, but decided to put off the decision. As it became apparent that Ukraine would not capitulate as quickly as it had been forecasted by Russian strategists, they developed a new strategy, i.e. to gain full access to the Northerner Black Sea and disrupt Ukraine’s main source of income. Therefore, it seems that in May and June the Kinburn Spit became a strategic chokepoint as the Russian Navy started to mine the northern Black Sea to prevent Ukrainian vessels from delivering Ukrainian wheat exports and costrain Ukraine financially. In fact, from the Spit it is possible to detect and stop any vessel activities exiting the Dnipro river. At this stage of the invasion, Russia started to heavily bomb Ukrainian naval assets in Ochakiv and exerted more pressure on the northern Black Sea. Reports indicate that the Russians seized the spit on 10th June and would turn out to be one of the last territories gained before the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Following the capture of the Kinburn Spit, the Russian military used the positions located on the spit to regularly bomb Ukrainian positions in Ochakiv and other areas with artillery rounds and missile strikes. Control of the spit is crucial for the Russians as it prevents Ukrainian troops from having access to an alternative route in crossing the Dnipro River.
Trenches Located on the Spit
Russia has somehow anticipated that Ukraine would try and recapture the Kinburn Spit with an amphibious assault in light of its strategic location and as it would provide them with an alternative route to crossing the Dnipro River. Therefore, before it withdrew from Kherson Russia retreated slightly to the East and started to build defensive positions and trenches. Satellite imagery taken on 29th October shows that Russians constructed a network of trenches, comprising of a 3 km trench stretching from north to south along a dirt road (46°28'11.2"N 32°01'36.1"E), a jagged trench heading from East to West with 8 Dagenham emplacements (46.4829179632.0289107) potentially for artillery howitzers or mortars pointing at Mykolaiv, allowing the Russians to target any vessels moving on the waterway. The positions are marked in the following picture, where the red line represents the long 3 km trench that stretches from North to South while the red square is the approximate locations of other Russian defence positions. Finally, the red circle indicates the approximate location of a zigzagged and jagged trench with the 8 Dagenham emplacements for potential howitzers and mortars. Finally, video footage shows that Russia is supposedly moving concrete blocks to the Kinburn spit, even though these could not be spotted nor marked via satellite imagery.
Figure 3: Approximate location of Russian defence positions East of the Kinburn Spit
Ukrainian Counteroffensive on the Spit
Satellite Imagery of Russian defensive positions suggest that the Russian military commanders view the prospect of Ukrainian amphibious operations across the Dnipro River as a serious threat. Mykolaiv Oblast Governor Vitaliy Kim briefed the media on November 30, that “the occupiers forcibly removed people from Kinburn settlement” and mentioned that Ukraiane is conducting a counteroffensive operation “in a mode of information silence”. Russian trenches and anti-tank defences on and around the Kinburn Spit demonstrate Russian forces do not expect to maintain positions on the spit itself, but rather intend to prevent Ukrainian forces from advancing to mainland Kherson Oblast.
Figure 4: Approximate location of Russian defence positions East of the Kinburn Spit
Primary information from Twitter indicates that Ukrainian Naval Special Warfare (NSW) task elements had conducted raids on the Kinburn Peninsula, with unconfirmed social media suggesting that Ukrainains have launched several unsuccessful assaults on the Spit. The information suggests that Ukrainians have progressed east, and that Russian forces occupy defensive lines in Kherson Oblast and west Zaporizhia Oblast.
In an article with The Times on 28th November, Yevien Yerin, the Ukrainian military spokesman, said that “it’s too early to say that the armed forces of Ukraine have control over the Kinburn Spit.” Despite the reluctance of commanders to comment directly on the battle, it is a high priority for Ukrainian forces to get tanks and armoured personnel carriers across the Dnipro River and use that to launch a new line of counterattack across the open countryside to the West. The Russian effort to prepare defence positions in eastern Kherson, however well or poorly executed, highlights the importance the terrain holds for the future course of the war.
3. Future Considerations and Predictions
Considering the favourable geographical position as well as past and current activity on its territory, Kinburn Spit represents a crucial area in the war, one that will likely be of strategic importance to both UAF and RAF as the war enters its next stages. Regaining control of the spit would represent a major advance for Ukraine.
This primarily means that they would likely gain more control of the Black Sea, while also getting closer to Crimea. The orientation of the peninsula would also make it easier to align their counteroffensive attacks in any direction, but most importantly towards parts of the continent and towards the Russian-occupied parts in the east. Moreover, defence is also boosted, as they can cover attacks coming from all directions while on the peninsula. Control of Pervomaisky Island will also be of important operational value, due to its position near the spit.
As Ukrainian President Zelensky stated on November 14, that the liberation of Kherson marked “the beginning of the end of the war”, the Kinburn Spit could become the destination to hold the future course of the war.