By Jean Eric Belmonte

ABSTRACT

The year 2024 constitutes the biggest election year in history with 83 elections across 78 countries with more than 4 billion people expected to go to the polls, which represents nearly half of the world population.

In this new series, London Politica’s Intelligence Support Group and the Emergent Technologies department collaborate to provide in-depth case studies based on OSINT (Open Source Intelligence Analysis) investigation. 

Burkina Faso, a West African country was expected to celebrate presidential elections in July 2024 as part of the two-year transition plan towards restoring democracy that was agreed upon with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) back in 2022. Despite promising to adhere to the agreement once he took power, Burkinabè president Ibrahim Traoré later stated that the elections would not be a priority over improving the country’s security, and the military junta voted unilaterally to postpone the elections indefinitely.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• The deterioration of security and governance have been the main causes attributed to the wave of coups that have taken place across the Sahel region.

• The ruling military junta has consolidated its political power by initially suspending all political activity, yet political parties, NGOs and other civil society organisations aren’t banished.

• Political parties still have representation in the Transitional Legislative Assembly (TLA), holding 12 seats, but with very limited influence.

• The military junta has effectively taken over the media environment in Burkina Faso after passing legislation that gives Capt. Ibrahim Traoré the power to appoint the president of the Superior Council for Communication (CSC).

• The government has been cracking down on media outlets to stop the dissemination of insurgent or foreign interests that are considered a security threat, as well as the denunciation of massacres and human rights abuses by the state security forces.

• Bilateral relations with Russia strengthened since Traoré took power. 

• The increased influence of Russia on Burkinabè society can be seen in the display of the Russian flag and images of Vladimir Putin, accompanied by outcries against France.

• The elections that were intended to take place after the end of the transition period on 2 July 2024 will also be postponed to 2029.