Case Study: The Fall of Aleppo

Intelligence Report
Written By London Politica

by Christian Georgiou & Sean Thorne

Abstract

Between 29 November and 2 December, concurrent offensives between Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (‘HTS’) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (‘SDF’) fully displaced the Syrian Arab Armed Forces (Assad government forces/‘SAAF’) from the city of Aleppo. This case study seeks to create an accurate timeline and map the progression of each relevant force - HTS, SDF and Assad government forces - by corroborating in-print journalism and online media through geolocation techniques. This serves to not only provide an audited account of territorial shifts, but also to identify which elements were - and were not - consequential in the overthrow of Assad regime forces in the city.

Executive Summary

  • Simultaneous HTS and SDF offensives rapidly displaced Syrian government forces from Aleppo between 29 November and 2 December 2024.

  • Two-pronged pressure from HTS (West and South) and SDF (Northeast) led to the capture of the M5 highway and Aleppo International Airport, leaving no viable reinforcement or escape routes.

  • Government forces were unprepared for the speed of the assault; minimal fortifieddefences and ineffective Russian air support were unable to alter the outcome.

  • Following the fall of Aleppo, HTS has secured its control over most of Aleppo and its environs. The SDF has retained control in the city’s Kurdish-majority neighbourhoods, namely Sheikh Maksoud and Ashrafieh.

Fall of Aleppo: Annotated Time Lapse (Credit: Sean Thorne)

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