A Drastic Turn: Five Factors that Explain Ecuador’s Descent into the Epicenter of Violence in Latin America
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In the wake of the shocking assassination of Presidential Candidate, Fernando Villavicencio on August 9th, 2023, Ecuador has undergone a drastic turn, from being one of the safest countries in the region to becoming the epicentre of violence in Latin America.
The homicide rate in Ecuador escalated from 5.8 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2016 to 25.9 in 2022, and throughout the first six months of 2023, the number of violent deaths increased by 55 percent.
Source: World Bank (n.d.) and Appleby et al. (2023)
During this year alone, there have been more than a dozen violent attacks on politicians, some of which resulted in the death of mayors and political candidates. Last Wednesday’s assassination of a presidential candidate is the second high-profile political killing in less than a month. Fernando Villavicencio was killed as he left a political rally, and Agustin Intriago, mayor of Manta, was shot dead while attending a public event.
How did Ecuador transition from being among the most secure nations in Latin America to becoming one of the region's most violence-ridden countries?
The accelerated increase of violence in Ecuador can be explained by five factors:
Strategic Geographical Location
Not so long ago, Ecuador was known as the “island of peace” as it is located between Peru and Colombia, countries with a long war history. Nowadays, however, Ecuador’s strategic location between the world’s two largest cocaine producers, and its porous coastline and large fishing and shipping industries facilitate the trafficking of drugs.
According to data from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, in 2015 Ecuadorian authorities seized 63 tons of cocaine. In the subsequent two years, seizures surpassed 80 tons per year. In 2018, following the Colombian Peace Process, only 35 tons were confiscated. However, in 2019, seizures resumed their upward trend, and in 2021, the country set a record with the confiscation of 210 tons of cocaine. Since then, figures have remained at these levels; in 2022, Ecuador recorded seizures of nearly 180 tons of cocaine.
With Ecuador's increasing popularity as a narcotics trafficking route, capital flows have risen, giving impetus to the growth of domestic criminal groups.
2. Expansion of Criminal Organisations
During recent years, the criminal landscape has multiplied from a handful of local criminal gangs to hundreds of violent and sophisticated criminal groups, each vying for control over the country's prisons and the lucrative drug corridors that have transformed the nation into a cocaine superhighway.
Los Choneros—the largest criminal organisation in Ecuador, with around 20.000 members, traces back to the 1990s in the city of Chone, situated within the coastal province of Manabí. From there, its influence extended to Manta and other Pacific shoreline locales. Authorities approximate that the illicit operations orchestrated from correctional facilities yield these types of organisations approximately $120 million in annual profits.
Los Lobos, comprising around 8,000 members, is the second biggest criminal organisation, and have been implicated in a series of prison uprisings that resulted in more than 400 deaths in the country during 2022. This organisation emerged as a splinter from Los Choneros and although drug trafficking facilitation and extortion from within prisons remain their primary activities, in recent years they have found another revenue source in illegal gold extraction.
According to information compiled by InsightCrime, Los Lagartos, an organisation that originated within the prisons of Guayaquil, is the third biggest and has been operational for at least a decade.
The ascendancy of Ecuador's megaband criminal groups appears ceaseless due to their links with international cartels.
3. Support from International Cartels
For years, Ecuador was a part of the domain of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), Colombia's oldest insurgency. The FARC controlled the cocaine departure ports in the department of Nariño, in southern Colombia, near the Ecuadorian border. Crop eradication efforts and the pursuit of the FARC displaced the guerrilla's operations to Ecuador, where they found allies for the trafficking.
In 2016, the FARC signed a peace agreement with the Colombian government, which allowed dissident factions of the group, also known as ex-FARC mafia, to assume control over the former guerrilla territories. Along the Ecuadorian border, the control of cocaine trafficking became concentrated, resulting in a trail of violence that only ceased a few years ago.
Since the 2000s, Mexican groups have also been establishing connections between cocaine trafficking networks and emissaries from their country to ensure the flow of drugs to the United States and Mexico. The Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) formed alliances with Ecuadorian organisations, such as Los Chonerosa and Los Lobos.
Los Choneros, Los Lobos, and even smaller organisations like the Tiguerones and the Chone Killers, are no longer just armed enforcers in charge of securing shipments, but now provide express services for major Mexican and Balkan cartels (particularly Albanian ones).
4. Government’s Inability to Respond
Amidst the escalating wave of violence sweeping across the nation, the Ecuadorian government's apparent lack of readiness to counter a criminal menace of such immense scale has become overly notorious.
Since the onset of 2022, the proliferation of threats and assaults thas become a distressing norm within Ecuador, especially to politicians in the country. This unsettling trend has cast a shadow over the recent local and legislative electoral proceedings, marred by recurring incidents of violence. Over the last month, added to the assassinations of Villavicencio and Intriago, Rider Sánchez, a candidate vying for a seat in the National Assembly, also fell victim to a fatal attack in the province of Esmeraldas, situated in the northern reaches of the country.
In response to these dire circumstances, the government has resorted to declaring a State of Emergency. Yet, the sobering reality, starkly demonstrated by the tragic demise of Villavicencio, underscores that these measures have fallen short in stifling the surge of violence or substantially eroding the influence wielded by these criminal syndicates.
5. Political Instability
In March of this year, the Plenary of the Constitutional Court of Ecuador admitted the request for political impeachment against President Guillermo Lasso on allegations of embezzlement of public funds. Months later, and a day after the National Assembly initiated the process to determine whether they will accept or reject the censure and removal, Lasso declared “muerte cruzada” (cross-death) to avoid impeachment.
This not only signifies a momentary episode of political instability within the nation, but also serves as a tangible manifestation of the enduring political crisis that has plagued the country, which also translates in a lack of governmental control.
As a consequence, extraordinary elections took place on Sunday, August 20th; where Luisa Gonzales from Revolucion Ciudadana–a political party led by former President Rafael Correa won the first round with 33% of votes. The unexpected second place was secured by Daniel Noboa, who garnered 24%. Just a few weeks ago, however, Noboa was polling with single-digit support percentages. Since no candidate surpassed 40 percent with a lead of 10 points over the next contender, runoff elections will be conducted on October 15th of this year.
A Vision for Restoration
Over the last couple of years, Ecuador has witnessed a profound transformation that has catapulted it from a bastion of security in the region to a distressing epicentre of violence within Latin America. The disturbing surge in crime, marked by violent attacks and targeted killings, underscores the urgency of addressing the multifaceted political and economic factors that have contributed to this disheartening shift.
As Ecuador stands at a critical juncture, the upcoming elections bear immense significance, offering a pivotal opportunity to reshape its trajectory. A unified commitment to reform and revitalization in these elections could steer the nation back towards safety and stability, reaffirming its position as a beacon of security in the region and restoring the hopes of its citizens for a safer and more prosperous future.