Ecuadorian Political Crisis: From Impeachment to Democratic Renewal
On May 17th, a new episode unfolded in the ongoing political crisis in Ecuador. President Guillermo Lasso declared “muerte cruzada” (cross-death) to avoid impeachment. This is a constitutional mechanism enabling the dissolution of the National Assembly and the subsequent organisation of extraordinary elections, anticipated to occur in August and November 2023 (Runoff). This not only signifies a momentary episode of political instability within the nation, but also serves as a tangible manifestation of the enduring political crisis that has plagued the country.
The roots and complexity of the Ecuadorian political crisis
Guillermo Lasso assumed power in May 2021, securing over 52% of the votes in a contest against his left-wing adversary, Andrés Arauz. The former banker and conservative candidate was elected on the basis of a neoliberal economic agenda and a promise to execute a comprehensive Covid-19 vaccination campaign.
While the government enjoyed initial favorable public sentiment, Lasso's administration confronted an escalating security predicament within the nation, particularly within the penitentiary system. Multiple penitentiaries across the country bore witness to inmate massacres, resulting in a staggering tally of over 100 custodial homicides in the year 2022 alone.
Ecuador has also been experiencing waves of street violence, instilling fear among the populace. During this year, a total of 1151 homicides have been recorded (as of March 14th), following 4603 from last year. Femicides are more present in regions such as Guayas and Pichincha (Aldea, 2020) Daily, around 17 people die violently.
In response, Lasso repeatedly declared a state of emergency in the country, bolstered the presence of security forces, and relocated thousands of prisoners to different correctional facilities. However, these measures have not effectively reduced homicide rates and, in some instances, have even incited further waves of violence. Behind these massacres lie armed gangs – such as the Lobos gang and the Choneros gang – and with ties to drug trafficking, vying for internal control of the prisons, and dominance in the illicit drug trade, encompassing both domestic distribution and exportation.
Graph from Crisis Group
Corruption Allegations and Political Turmoil
President Lasso has faced multiple accusations of potential corruption. His name surfaced in the Pandora Papers in 2021, an investigation that exposed several leaders and prominent figures concealing assets in offshore tax havens. Ecuador prohibits candidates and officials from holding investments in such tax havens. Following the revelation, a congressional commission suggested initiating impeachment proceedings, but the government rejected the proposal. The investigation was subsequently archived by the Comptroller's Office.
In 2022, Guillermo Lasso faced another motion of censure for his removal in June. During this period, prolonged protests against the rising fuel and food prices shook the country and culminated in a nationwide strike organized by the largest indigenous movement in the nation. As a result, a process of impeachment was sought due to a grave political crisis and internal upheaval. However, it failed to secure enough votes for approval.
Political Impeachment against President Guillermo Lasso
In March of this year, with six votes in favor, the Plenary of the Constitutional Court of Ecuador admitted the request for political impeachment against President Guillermo Lasso on allegations of embezzlement of public funds. Legislators from the UNES party, acting as interrogators, accuse him of allowing a multimillion-dollar contract to persist between the state-owned oil transportation company, Flopec, and the offshore company, Amazonas Tanker Pool.
On May 16th, the National Assembly initiated the process to determine whether they will accept or reject the "censure and removal" of President Guillermo Lasso for his alleged involvement in the crime of embezzlement. This marks the first time a president is subjected to political impeachment since the approval of the 2008 Constitution.
Following his defence in the National Assembly, where the president insisted on his innocence and claimed that those seeking his removal aim to destabilise the country and undermine democracy, the next day, on May 17th, the President invoked the "muerte cruzada" (cross-death) to avoid impeachment.
What are the different facets in today’s scenario?
Today’s social environment in Ecuador is filled with (1) political tension, (2) presidential low popularity, and (3) a severe public security situation.
Under the new Constitution, created in 2008 under the presidency of Rafael Correa, the impeachment procedure is more difficult. For him, this change was necessary to procure Presidential stability, because during 1997 to 2005 no elected president managed to finish their term. Therefore, the “muerte cruzada” procedure, that combines Presidential and Parliamentary elections, is legal. Parliamentary dissolution is described in article 148 of the Constitution, and is valid in case of a) unconstitutionality of the National Assembly, b) incompetence towards the National plan of development (Plan Nacional de Desarrollo), or c) in a severe political crisis and internal commission. Lasso appealed to the “muerte cruzada” under the last condition.
However, Rafael Correa stated recently in an interview to RFi that even if he thinks the procedure chosen by Lasso is the best for the country, it is not constitutional. According to Correa, Lasso’s decision did not respect any criteria that permits constitutionally the dissolution of the National Assembly. Indeed, there is no comparison to be made since this is the first time the “muerte cruzada” is applied. In order to justify its legality and use, in a televised speech for the Ecuadorian People, Guillermo Lasso defended the democratic legitimacy of his decision to dissolve the Assembly. For him, he is following the Constitution and is giving back the right to the People to choose their new representatives.
Meanwhile, the Ecuadorian Court rejected last week the contest of deputies on Lasso’s decision of dissolving the National Assembly. Despite the procedure being legal, political tensions are still omnipresent, especially because of embezzlement accusations towards President Guillermo Lasso during the impeachment hearings.
Overall, this entire political tension affects Lasso's popularity, which was already low at the beginning of May 2023; below 20%. Recently, probably to recover his image from this political instability, Lasso signed an order that lowers income taxes. He said this would help around half a million families. However, the truth is that his lack of general approval is not due to an income tax issue; it is mainly because of the increase of inflation and crime rates in recent years.
Indeed, according to a research from Gallup, Ecuador is now the Latin American country where citizens feel the most insecure, while five years ago it was not the case. Recently, on May 21st for instance, gunmen killed six people in an openfire by a tourist restaurant, by the beach. In the political sphere, the recent events could be a spark for a whole wave of demonstrations, an additional public concern for a country with a strong rise of insecurity.
What are the perspectives for upcoming elections? (August-November 2023)
Presidential and parliamentary elections will follow within 85 days. Until then, President Guillermo Lasso has the right to rule by executive decree. Even if the next presidential and parliamentary elections are in a few months, Lasso can run for election again. His political and civic rights were not abolished in the last weeks. Nevertheless, considering his lack of popularity before the dissolution of the National Assembly, it is unlikely – especially now – that he will attract the approval of the population on such a short term basis.
In parallel, the political group that seems to be the most advantageous one in the outcome of this situation is Revolucion Ciudadana, led by Rafael Correa, former left-wing president of Ecuador from 2007 to 2017. Already on February 5th 2023, during sectional elections and through a referendum of eight questions – about security, the environment, and institutions – with 80% of public participation, it was clear that a rise of Correa’s group political influence was back in Ecuador. In these elections, Revolucion Ciudadana secured 9 prefectures. Two of these prefectures were in the most populous provinces of the country: Guayas and Pichincha. Additionally, Revolucion Ciudadana also won the mayoral positions in the two main cities of the country, Quito and Guayaquil.
Furthermore, by affirming the unconstitutionality of Lasso’s decision, Rafael Correa is clearly putting himself as a strong figure of political opposition. Due to Lasso’s low popularity, the opposing political side seems to get stronger.
This means that Ecuador, being one of the few countries with a right-wing President in Latin America (currently only Ecuador and Paraguay), can turn to be left wing in the next few months. With such an unstable and turbulent political scenario, it is important to keep an eye on the upcoming news until the elections, in August 2023.
*Photo from The Economist