China consolidates its influence in the region as Honduras shifts diplomatic recognition to Beijing
Honduran President Xiomara Castro announced last Tuesday that the country is commencing the process of shifting diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, following the path of its neighbours Panama, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. This latest development has left Taiwan in an increasingly worrying diplomatic situation, as only 13 states still recognize Taipei.
Relations between Honduras and Taiwan have been ‘awkward’ under Castro's administration since Taiwan had supported her predecessor, Juan Orlando Hernandez, establishing a very strong relationship. In fact, one of Castro's campaign promises was to cut ties with Taiwan.
This diplomatic shift is a new signal of the strong presence that China has in the region. Throughout the 21st century, Beijing's significance as an economic partner has grown drastically, at the expense of the US, which used to be the undisputed hegemon in the hemisphere. China's growing importance in the region, in terms of trade and investment, has serious consequences for both Latin America and the US.
The ongoing competition between the US and China is substantially different from that of the 20th century between the US and the Soviet Union. One of the key elements to notice this difference is the extent to which China is considerably more powerful in Latin America than the USSR ever was. Today, the US has fewer resources to offer to the region than it had back then, and China is eager to take advantage of that place left by Washington. Moreover, Latin America's elites are eager to conduct business with China due to the complementarity of their economies.
Precisely, that is what Honduran officials are seeking with the diplomatic shift. According to Honduras’ Ministry of Foreign Affairs Enrique Reina, the decision comes at a moment when the country is facing serious financial problems, and therefore needs ‘investment, cooperation, and to be aggressive’.
This decision has caused some criticism from Washington, which has historically tried to maintain Central American countries outside Chinese influence through their diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Nevertheless, this strategy has proven to be ineffective, and Taiwan is left with very few allies in the region, including Guatemala and Belize. Arguably, Taiwan's biggest ally in the hemisphere remains to be Paraguay.
What should we expect?
Honduras will not face retaliation from the US because of this shift. Nonetheless, Washington is currently trying to discourage Honduras from following its diplomatic switch plan.
It remains to be seen whether this measure will result in further cooperation from Beijing. For now, both countries are negotiating the construction of a hydroelectric dam.
It is likely that other countries in the region will follow Honduras, ditching Taiwan. However, it will not lose all of its recognition in the short term, and will probably be a long-term process.
*photo taken from here.