Mexican elections 2023 - Coahuila and Estado de México: Why these elections matter?
On February 12th 2023, the pre-campaign period came to an end for the aspiring governors of the Mexican states of Coahuila de Zaragoza (or simply Coahuila) and the Estado de México (hereby Edomex). This is the first of a series of articles which will be published until June 2023, and that will cover the Mexican electoral processes of 2023. The aim of the series is to clarify who is running in each state, what the key issues on the ballot are, what the results mean for the 2024 presidential elections, and how the electoral processes could be affected by the ongoing restructuring of the INE (National Electoral Institute). This article gives a broad overview of the political context of each state and shows why the gubernatorial elections of Coahuila and the State of Mexico matter.
Context
Coahuila is a large state located in Northern Mexico. It shares borders with five other Mexican states (Nuevo León, Zacatecas, San Luis Potosí, Durango, and Chihuahua), as well as with the US state of Texas. Although it is the third largest state in terms of surface, it is only the 16th in terms of population, and contributes to 3,8% of the national GDP. Still, its GDP per capita of MXN $166,389 (2020) is “high” compared to the rest of the country.
By contrast, the Estado de México or Edomex, is situated in the Centre-South region of the country, and borders eight Mexican states (Querétaro, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, Puebla, Morelos, Guerrero, Michoacán, and Mexico City). Despite representing 1.1% of the national territory, the densely populated Edomex concentrates 13.5% of its population, and contributes almost 10% to the national GDP, overtaken only by the capital. Further, it is considered one of the most industrialised entities of Mexico and Latin America, with an economy oriented towards services and trade. Yet, its GDP per capita of MXN $85 184 is well below the national average and the state is home to the highest number of people living under the poverty line in the country, as well as the entity that brings back the largest number of voters (over 12,5 million people).
Significantly, in both Coahuila and Edomex, the urban/rural population ratio is above the national level, and the share of people who speak an indigenous language is extremely low (respectively, 0.2 and 2.6%, compared to 31.2% in Oaxaca, the state with the largest Indigenous population). It is also noteworthy that the levels of electoral violence greatly differ between these two states. In Coahuila, the NGO Data Civica has “only” identified one assassination, one assault and one disappearance between 2018 and 2022, whereas, in Edomex, there have been at least eight threats, three kidnappings, and 31 assassinations of political figures and civil servants in the same period, as summarised in the graph below.
Why do these elections matter?
Firstly, the elections of Coahuila and Edomex matter because both states play a significant role in the national economic life. Indeed, Coahuila is an important region for the energy sector, as it holds over 95% of the national coal reserves and 30% of the natural gas reserves, which account for, respectively, 4.2 and 59.8% of electricity production in the country. Here, it is noteworthy that Mexico’s role in global climate change politics has been ambiguous in the past decades. On one hand, Mexico is considered a leader in the adoption of mitigation and adaptation policies. On the other hand, it has been noted that the Mexican approach towards climate change mainly consists of pledges and the enactment of legislation whose implementation falls short of its objectives. Further, economic recovery and the deployment of social programs have taken precedence over environmental commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, at least in the last two administrations. In fact, the Carbon Brief points that the incumbent President Lopez Obrador (popularly referred to by his acronym, AMLO) has been criticised for opposing renewable energy projects and funding, heavily investing in the publicly owned oil company Pemex, and advocating for the attainment of energetic self-sufficiency through fossil fuels. In fact, after a small drop due to the Covid-19 pandemic, coal production rose by 61% between 2021 and 2022, and environmental activists denounce the lack of proper regulations, as well as the ecological impact, working conditions, and human rights violations observed in the coal mining sector. Thus, what happens in the state of Coahuila could have wider implications for the adoption of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies in Mexico, in addition to the security concerns related to energy production in any country. Although the centrality of environmental issues on the candidates’ programme remains to be seen, these questions are all the more important because Coahuila, like other Northern states, is particularly vulnerable to climate change effects such as desertification. This was demonstrated by the hydric stress emergency declared in the summer of 2022, after months of drought in states such as Nuevo León. The map and the satellite pictures below show just how high the risk of water scarcity is, and unfortunately, the situation will most likely worsen in upcoming years.
Drought intensity in Northern Mexico, June 2022. Source: A Reservoir Runs Dry | NASA Earth Observatory
The Cerro Prieto reservoir in Nuevo León, landsatellite images acquired in July 2015 (left) and July 2022 (right). Source: A Reservoir Runs Dry | NASA Earth Observatory
Apart from that, Coahuila is relevant from an industry and trade point of view because a number of big players and multinational corporations have plants or even their headquarters there, including Industrias Peñoles (the world’s largest producer of silver internationally, and of gold, zinc, lead and bronze in the country), the car companies Chrysler and General Motors, Mexico’s leading brewer Grupo Modelo, among others.
As for the Edomex, its large and relatively poor population, its economic importance, and its geographical proximity with the capital district mean that this election is a high-stakes one, especially for MORENA, for whom winning over the state would mark a decisive victory and a hopeful prospect for the presidential elections next year. Although the candidates’ programs have not been announced yet, a major issue is likely to be public safety, as Edomex is one of the most insecure states in the country. Indeed, it concentrates 6 of the 50 most dangerous municipalities nationwide, has a rate of victims of violent crime (extortion, armed theft, kidnapping and homicide) of 38 300 per 100 000 inhabitants, and has made headlines due to its instances of gender-based violence, including femicides. For this reason, in cities like Naucalpan de Juárez, over 90% of the population feels insecure, hence the probable importance of the issue in the upcoming elections.
Secondly, it is interesting to follow the electoral processes of Coahuila and Edomex because both states have historically been ruled by the PRI. In fact, all their governors have been from that party since the 1940s, and in the case of the Edomex, a number of them ran for president afterwards, including Enrique Peña Nieto, who got elected in 2012. Yet, the electoral successes of the presidential party MORENA in the 2022 legislative elections, and AMLO’s stubbornly high approval rates of around 62% - for comparison, his predecessor’s approval rate was 17% at the same time of his mandate - threaten the PRI’s leadership even in its strongholds. As a matter of fact, the PRI has already lost many of its states, which has led to the formation of coalitions among opposition parties, such as the “Va por México” alliance uniting the centrist PRI, the centre-right PAN and the leftist PRD. Note however, that these are the official or recognised political philosophies of these parties, but in reality, Mexican politics is characterised for having parties with blurred ideological lines, so it is hard to position them on a traditional Left-Right spectrum. For example, as argued by the Carbon Brief, the Ecological Green Party (Partido Verde) is known “for its lack of focus on ‘green’ issues and rejected by international green parties for its divergence on ‘basic principles’, such as supporting the death penalty”. Furthermore, at times there is a significant difference between what politicians from a specific party defend while campaigning, and what they actually do once in office, as clearly illustrated by the AMLO administration. According to Alejandro Moreno, survey director at the journal El Financiero, maintaining this alliance will be vital for the PRI to stay in power, and the opposition parties seem to agree. In Coahuila, the PRI-PAN-PRD coalition will be represented by the priista Manolo Jímenez Salinas. Moreno also indicates that in addition to the governorship, 27 deputies for the local Congress will also be elected in 2023, which could either strengthen the elected candidate or weaken them depending on who wins what. The candidates from the other parties are Armando Guadiano Tijerina from MORENA, Ricardo Mejía Berdeja from the PT (Partido de los Trabajadores), and Evaristo Lenin Pérez Liviera, representing the Green Party and the local UDC (Unión Democrática de Coahuila). Although these figures are likely to fluctuate in upcoming months, polls suggest that the election will be quite close, as the morenista candidate has 43% of voting intentions, but Jiménez Salinas has 41%.
Similarly, the tripartite “Va por el Estado de México” bloc will back the candidacy of Alejandra del Moral Vela from the PRI, who will run for Governor of Edomex against Delfina Gómez Álvarez, who will lead the “Juntos hacemos Historia” coalition between MORENA, the PT and the PVEM (Partido Verde Ecologista de México); and Juan Zepeda Hernández from Movimiento Ciudadano. In the last polls, dating from January 2023, Delfina Gómez came out first with 58% of voting intentions, followed by Alejandra del Moral, with 35%. The candidates’ profile and program will be detailed in the second article of the series. For now, suffice to say that the results of the state elections in Coahuila and the Edomex could be important predictors of what might happen in 2024, when Mexican voters will elect, not only a new President, but also all deputies for both chambers of Congress, as well as some local politicians.
Thirdly, the state elections of Coahuila and the Edomex provide interesting case studies to understand the current political landscape of the country beyond the upcoming federal elections. In particular, it can shed light on how AMLO’s proposed reforms to transform (or, as most analysts assert, weaken) the INE can affect future electoral processes. The already raging scandals over the spending of public resources by pre-campaigners also highlights the ways in which political finance and campaigning rules are subverted. Indeed, as electoral law expert Arturo Espinosa Silis explains, the goal of the pre-campaign is to define the candidate that will represent each political party or coalition, not to start lobbying against other parties. Thus, when there is only one pre-candidacy or the candidate is selected and announced by the party long before the pre-campaign is over, public spending should be limited, as there is nothing to contend for. This was the case for two of the aspiring governors of Edomex - Delfina Gómez (MORENA) and Alejandra del Moral (PRI), and of MORENA’s candidate in Coahuila Armando Guadiana, all of whom spent an average of MXN 2.3 million a day in their pre-campaigns. According to Espinosa Silis, the fact that these candidates poured so much money into massive rallies and spectacular open events show that this is a simulation, a “campaign disguised as a pre-campaign”, and, although this might not seem like a big deal, this widespread bending of electoral rules could undermine the fairness and transparency of the electoral process.
Lastly, the controversies and mediatic disputes over what candidates say about each other illustrate the personalistic dimension of Mexican politics, which can be problematic when personality clashes and a strong focus on individual candidates prevent in-depth debates about the current societal problems and the best way to address them.
What to expect?
The following weeks and months are going to be politically intense, and we can expect to see candidates entering mediatic wars and trying to mobilise popular support through spectacular events and grand promises. This process will likely not be entirely clean, and the two main candidates for the Estado de México already have over 70 accusations of electoral rule violations, even though the campaigning period does not officially start until April 3rd.
The governorship races in Edomex and Coahuila are also likely to be closely tied to other social and political movements, notably regarding the current role of the INE and its possible modifications if AMLO’s “Plan B” reforms are implemented.On that topic, huge manifestations took place around the country on February 26th to defend the institution against the reform package, including a demonstration reuniting an estimated 500 000 participants in Mexico City’s Zocalo (the historic square facing the Presidential Palace). As the massive demonstrations on March 8th demonstrated, gender issues are pressing political issues in the country, and they are already giving candidates something to talk about, especially as some of the aforementioned accusations in the pre-campaign period involve allegations of gender discrimination and violence.