Mexico’s judicial reform: threats to the rule of law and trade amid Trump’s return

Mexico’s judicial reform poses significant risks to judicial independence by increasing the influence of legislative and executive branches over the judiciary. The inclusion of a proposal to elect judges through popular vote raises concerns about the politicisation of judicial decisions, which could erode investor confidence in the fairness and consistency of legal rulings. Although a complete erosion of judicial independence is unlikely, the failure to uphold due process and legal autonomy threatens to weaken democratic norms and create political and commercial challenges, potentially straining Mexico’s relationship with the U.S.—particularly under the Trump administration—and undermining the country’s appeal as a destination for nearshoring-driven investments.