Total Peace: Petro's ambitious plan for having lasting peace in Colombia
Since 7th of August 2022, when Gustavo Petro was positioned as Colombian president, he has started an ambitious plan for having lasting peace in Colombia. On the 26th of October, the government and the House of Representatives approved a law which extends the legal framework, which has existed since 1997, to negotiate with armed actors. However, some capabilities were included to negotiate with armed groups without political status. This last change is essential for having lasting peace since some armed groups, which make a presence in Colombian territory, such as Shottas and Espartanos, do not have political interests. However, these groups have been disputing the fluvial drug routes with armed actors such as the Liberal National Army (ELN) and dissidents of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) divided into two groups: "The Second Marquetalia", Southeastern Bloc / CCO and Clan del Golfo. These groups affect the civilian population, who get trapped in the middle of the conflict. This paper will begin with the advantages of the total peace project, then outline the potential challenges of this project. It will finish by assessing the implications this project will have on the region.
Advantages of the Total Peace Project
First of all, including armed groups with no political interest, such as Shottas, Espartanos, Tren de Aragua, la Oficina de Envigado among others, is an advantage in achieving lasting peace because, even though they are not in the conflict for political ideologies, they are causing forced displacement and violation of human rights.For example, Shottas and Espartanos have increased the homicides index in Buenaventura, El tren de Aragua has tortured and extorted people in Bogota and La Oficina de Envigado specialises in murders and kidnappings in many parts of Antioquia. Hence, as an active part of the conflict, it is essential to negotiate with them to regain the monopoly of the force in these strategic areas. Furthermore, the civil population in places such as Catatumbo and Buenaventura deserve to live in a country protected by the rule of law of a state, instead of the rule of law of a criminal group.
Second, the total peace law defines peace as a priority and transversal policy, meaning it is a public policy and all ministries have to have a plan around peace. The idea is to strengthen the state in regions where the state has not had a presence for a long time focusing on education, culture, infrastructure and connectivity. It is based on the assumption that organised crime tries to occupy these voids left by the absence of the state, which is beneficial to the communities where the state has only had a presence through a military army.
Third, the dissidents of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC): "The Second Marquetalia", and the Southeastern Bloc/CCO, have another opportunity to reincorporate into civil society, having previously returned to arms due to having a bad relationship with the previous government that promised to destroy the peace process. According to the government, peace should be the priority of all political interests and cover all violent expressions. By including them in the negotiation group, some regions in the country will no longer experience conflict due to the actions of these groups.Fourth, in this law, the government is establishing some essential points to negotiate with these groups. They firstly aim to suspend the warrants against the spokespeople and negotiators of these groups. Second, they aim to establish an anonymous delivery of weapons in exchange for a financial incentive, and finally, the eventual concentration of these groups in specific places as done in the previous peace process.
Fifth, the law proposes a"social peace service" which will last one year. It would be carried out by young people conducting activities such as digital literacy, support of conflict victims, environmental care, and assistance to vulnerable older adults. In this way, young people could choose between military or social peace service. However, further regimentation will be discussed in the following stages of this law.
Challenges that face the total peace project
The current government intends to talk with more than 20 armed groups which can be challenging to handle at a negotiation table. This is especially so if it considers that not all of them have political ideologies, resulting in the negotiations being longer than expected for both society and the government. Furthermore, some people consider it an error to negotiate with the FARC dissidents because they broke the previous peace agreement and returned to arms. Involving the FARC in negotiations would mean they would not be sanctioned for breaking the previous peace agreement.
On the other hand, having a centre for the demilitarised zone (DMZ) to gather armed groups, as is proposed in the total peace law, can be risky. In 1998 the FARC guerrilla group took advantage of the peace agreement and used it to strengthen its military position. Taking this into account, by having more than 20 armed groups involved in the new total peace project, it is likely that some of them will use this as a military strategy.
Furthermore, there was a misunderstanding on the 3rd of January where ELN members denied having agreed on a bilateral ceasefire which was proposed to take place between 1st of January until June 2023 along with another four groups. This decreased credibility in the effort to have lasting peace in public opinion and generated uncertainty about peace negotiations. Therefore, the government should work more to avoid this misunderstanding to increase the support of the civil community.
Implications of total peace in Latin America
It is no secret that border countries in Latin America have had diplomatic incidents with Colombian governments regarding its internal conflict. For example, a diplomatic note of protest was given to Colombians due to criminal armed groups in border areas. Additionally, there was an intense discussion in 2008 in UNASUR, between Ecuador and Colombia when Colombia bombed a rebel camp one mile inside Ecuador Killing Raul Reyes, an important FARC leader at that time. Therefore, the 11 countries that share a border with Colombia should be interested in peace in this country because if peace is achieved, these countries can stop investing vast quantities of money in the safe-keeping of their borders.
Additionally, if Colombia is successful in implementing peace then bilateral and multilateral relations with neighbouring countries can debate different mutual interest topics that go beyond peace, thus contributing to Latin American development. For instance, the consolidation of the regional integration process through Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR) or Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) have the options to work in support of democracy, education, energy, environment, infrastructure, and security.
There are many benefits to Latin America if Colombia, one of the top five economies in the region, establishes peace. Peace could increase the number of international and national investors who feel confident to invest in Colombia. This is an opportunity not just for Colombia as a country but also for other Latin American countries as investors. Furthermore, Colombia, as the second most biodiverse country in the world, would be a highly desirable tourist destination if tourists feel secure to travel around the country, which will benefit tourism in the region and Colombia as a country.