Brazil is back in the region
Last week's CELAC summit may have not made huge progress in terms of the region’s key struggles- economic crises, political instability, social discontent- but there is definitely something that cannot be overlooked: Brazil is back in the region.
Lula da Silva’s decision to attend the summit- when he could have travelled to Davos- shows his commitment to strengthen Brazil’s ties with Latin American countries, which former president Jair Bolsonaro had almost completely abandoned. This is good news for the region, and most leaders- especially Argentina’s- have shown great optimism about Brazil’s new role.
However, as some experts claim, it should be noted that Lula’s greatest emphasis has been on South American countries, which most Brazilian officials regard as Brazil’s sphere of influence. According to the cited analysis, Lula does not show great interest in CELAC, since he understands it is a forum where Mexico has big influence, and Lula is not willing to share his leadership with the Mexican leader. Therefore, South America arises as Brazil’s key geopolitical interest. However, as stated previously, Lula’s participation in the summit has a strong symbolic value, especially considering that Jair Bolsonaro had abandoned the forum in 2020.
In addition to attending the summit, Lula and his team had a series of meetings that also depicted the importance given to its neighbours. Firstly, he visited Argentina where he met with President Fernandez and his team. Although the “common currency” issue catched most of the attention, Argentina’s government announced a series of agreements that would considerably strengthen their strategic alliance. They cover a wide variety of issues, from technology, science and innovation cooperation to an agreement on Antarctica.
Before returning to Brasilia, Lula visited Montevideo where he met with President Lacalle Pou, Montevideo’s mayor Carolina Cosse and former president Pepe Mujica. One of the topics that catched a great deal of attention was the “modernization” of Mercosur. For some time, Uruguay has been trying to sign a free trade agreement with China, which would severely undermine the bloc. Due to this, Lacalle Pou has been severely criticised by its partners.
Nonetheless, Lula claimed that he shared the willingness to open the economies to new markets, proposing a China-Mercosur agreement. However, he also claimed that before negotiating anything with China, Mercosur should come to an agreement with the European Union.
Regardless of where these negotiations lead the region in the coming years, it is clear that Brazil’s role is key as a leader, and one that has legitimacy between presidents from all across the political spectrum. This is considered vital in a region that is going through a deep polarisation.
We should expect Lula to seek greater influence in South America. He might try to reboot Unasur in order to do this
According to what he has said, we can expect serious debate about reforming Mercosur, most likely with a view to "open it" to other blocs or countries.