The Scramble for Jerusalem: Israeli-Palestinian tensions
On 21 April 2022, Israel carried out airstrikes on an underground weapons complex in the Gaza Strip in retaliation for rockets launched from Gaza into southern Israel hours earlier. The exchange of fire was the second in a week between Israeli forces and Gaza-based militant groups including Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, although neither group has claimed responsibility so far. The rockets from Gaza come amidst violent clashes between Palestinians and Israeli security forces in Jerusalem’s al-Aqsa mosque ongoing since mid-April. Beginning in late March and continuing in early April, Israel faced a significant wave of attacks by Palestinians as well as by Arab citizens of Israel, including shootings in Tel Aviv and Hadera, and a stabbing in Beer Sheva. The Israeli forces’ consequent raids and arrests of Palestinians in the West Bank inflamed tensions.
The current escalation in tensions between both sides follows a relative lull in violence since the 11-day war in May 2021 that killed at least 250 Palestinians and 13 Israelis. Last year’s conflict too had Jerusalem as the flashpoint, with Hamas launching rocket fire in response to Israeli forces’ actions against Palestinians gathered to celebrate Ramadan in the Old City’s Damascus Gate.
The Jewish festival of Passover and the Islamic Ramadan coincided this year, increasing the possibilities of riots in Jerusalem, a city revered by both communities alike. Under a centuries-long policy, non-Muslims may visit but not pray at the al-Aqsa compound, recognised by Jews as Temple Mount. Palestinians accuse the Israeli government of unilaterally breaking this policy by allowing Jewish worshippers to enter the compound.
Israel’s internal politics also has the potential for the current situation to escalate. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s coalition, composed of diverse political parties which see little in common, suffered a defection on 6 April. If the government loses its razor-thin majority in the Knesset, a weary Israeli public would go to the fifth election in four years to vote a fresh government into power. The fragile political situation may force Mr Bennett to focus more strongly on security or may see him yield to ultra-nationalists who have a different and more forceful vision of tackling the Palestinian issue. Although Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Jordan have all appealed for calm in Jerusalem, the likelihood of external interference is low. As Hamas’ warnings to Israel get more aggressive, cross-border airstrikes and violence in Jerusalem, in particular, are expected to continue in the short term.