Syria’s Forgotten War: An Explainer
The Damascene sword monument in the middle of Umayyad Square in Damascus, Syria’s capital, has long been considered a symbol of the Syrian people’s resilience. Damascus has, after all, endured the fallout of centuries of victories, defeats, and achievements of its rulers. Closed to the outside world since 2011 when the Arab Spring touched the southern city of Daraa al-Balad, Syria has, as throughout history, faced events that are bloody and complex at the same time. For more than a decade, Syrians have been killed, tortured, internally displaced, and endured a terrorist movement that shook the western world by the depths of its cruelty.
The following is an explainer of the Syrian war, its main actors, the growth and (near) death of the Islamic State (IS), territorial control by different actors, and possibilities for Syria’s return to the international arena.
What do recent Israeli airstrikes on Syria mean?
On 27 April 2022, Israel conducted airstrikes on Damascus, killing five regime soldiers and four members of an Iran-backed militia. Israel rarely comments on sporadic airstrikes on its neighbour, but its stated goals are to prevent any Iranian presence on its northern border. Hence Jerusalem’s attacks on Iranian bases and arms shipments, including to the Lebanese Hezbollah (whose fighters are present in Syria). When Israeli airstrikes in March 2022 killed two IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) personnel, Iran retaliated by bombing targets in Iraq’s Erbil that Tehran claimed were linked to Israel. Therefore, Syria has also earned a reputation for serving as a theatre for regional conflicts, including that of Israel and Iran.
What are the origins of the conflict in Syria?
The conflict in Syria has its origins in the repression by President Assad in 2011 of those who protested for, among other demands, his removal from office. The Arab Spring protests, which began in Tunisia in January 2011 as a call for democracy and an end to decades of Middle Eastern authoritarianism, spread to Syria’s Daraa province. But suppressing dissenting voices was nothing new for Bashar al-Assad, who had engaged in sporadic instances of putting down rebels in a manner not unlike that followed by his late father and former president Hafiz al-Assad.
But the situation soon went out of control of both the president as well as outside powers. In a short time, the rebels were armed (primarily by the US to aid in removing Assad from power) and the country slipped into spheres of territory controlled by warring groups with competing aims. The Islamic State (IS) took birth, grew into a powerful force that took swathes of Syria and Iraq, and declared a “caliphate”.
Which external actors are involved in the war, and why?
Dividing the external actors involved in the Syrian war into those that oppose and support Assad may be insufficient to draw a full picture. Though the US certainly falls under the former category, and Russia and Iran come under the latter, their roles and justifications for their presence in the country are more complex. The US, Russia, Iran, and Turkey certainly aren’t investing men and money in an obscure country in a forgotten corner of the Middle Eastern map, for their stance on a single man. No, each has its own driving forces, which at most times contradict that of others. The United States may have entered Syria to remove Assad from office, but ended up staying for reasons including counter-terrorism and regional security. Iran does support the Assad regime, but also backs and arms militias for a host of reasons including countering Israel with a military presence at its very border and ensuring Arab countries’ non-interference in Syria. Assad does not mind Iran’s use of Syrian territory and assets to meet its aims so long as his own regime does not fall. Russia’s role in the Syrian war is for economic reasons (arms sales, etc) as much as geopolitical ones. Russia wants a say in world events and is happy maintaining the improbability of a resolution to the Syrian conflict without its influence.
Turkey arrived on the Syrian stage later than other countries, but when it did, it was also for self-serving reasons. Turkey has been at war with the stateless Kurds for decades, and therefore considered the fear of a strong Syrian Kurdish population reason enough to intervene militarily. Turkey and Turkish-backed groups now control most of north-western Syria, which borders southern Turkey, thereby giving a buffer area from the warzone. Ankara need not have worried about an independent Kurdish homeland, however. The Syrian Kurds, who fought alongside US forces against the Islamic State and now maintain a zone of influence in northeast Syria (Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria – AANES), are still ages away from an independent state, a dream that has eluded the community for centuries.
What capabilities does Islamic State currently have in Syria?
Though the US claimed that the war against IS was successful in 2019, IS does continue to have a presence in Syria, particularly in the desert area. Its operational capabilities are restricted to conducting sporadic attacks against regime soldiers and infrastructure, and targeting Kurdish-held territory. The most recent instance was in January 2022 when IS laid siege to the Kurdish-held al-Sinaa prison in Hasakah city. Many former IS fighters, and their wives and children held in the prison managed to escape.
What are the prospects for Syria’s reintegration into the international forum?
Though the United Arab Emirates (UAE) began efforts in January 2022 to readmit Syria into the Arab League (primarily to counter Iranian influence in the country), reintegration has several challenges. Saudi Arabia remains hesitant. The US and several European countries maintain severe sanctions against Syria and those trading with the country. In September 2021, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon and Syria agreed to renew the Arab Gas Pipeline by sending Egyptian gas to Lebanon via Syria. The deal would not have happened without tacit US approval, but Washington still maintains that “Assad must go” for any meaningful relationship to begin.
A decade later, Syria’s situation is for the worse. There is no united government or governance, parts of the country are ungovernable and are attacked on a daily basis, and the people have no reliable means of income. Most importantly, there seems to be no way out of the status quo. A stalemate persists. Damascus has indeed endured centuries of bloodshed and anarchy, and unfortunately, this time seems no different.