The Tunisian Democratic Deficit
On 1 May 2022, Tunisian President Kais Saied announced the formation of a “national dialogue”, which will include four groups that jointly won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2015 for their efforts to “promote democracy” in the North African country. The dialogue will, however, exclude all opposition groups that have adopted an anti-Saied stance.
The only Arab country to have emerged from the Arab Spring as a democracy, Tunisia was seen as a ray of hope in a region that has an otherwise capricious and fragile relationship with democracy. Recent developments, however, are a cause for concern. Tunisia has been facing a political crisis since July 2021, when President Saied sacked the prime minister, suspended parliament, and began ruling by decree. He has since dissolved the Supreme Judicial Council (CSM), an independent judicial watchdog, and given himself powers to alter the constitution of the Independent High Authority for Elections. The country has slipped 21 places in Reporters Without Borders (RSB) press freedom rankings over the course of a year. Saied says he will appoint a committee to rewrite the constitution, put it to a referendum this July and hold elections later in December.
A former lawyer, Kais Saied won the presidential elections in 2019 largely because of his anti-corruption crusade and technocratic credentials. Tunisians welcomed him after a period of disillusionment with Ennahda, an Islamist party that has maintained a majority in parliament and other institutions in the post-Ben Ali era. Since the primary opposition party is Islamist and is perceived by Tunisians as the primary source of corruption, other parties hesitate to join forces with it to form a stable coalition. This weakens the opposition to Saied, giving the latter more room to rule by decree and in an authoritarian manner.
The Tunisian economy, already battered by the pandemic, is in danger of unraveling further as food prices go up due to the Russian war on Ukraine. There are fears over the risk of Tunisia’s default, and talks with the IMF on a deal do not appear to have made headway. The US and some European countries have expressed alarm at Saied’s authoritarian turn and have been asked by pressure groups to condition aid on democratic reforms. It remains to be seen if the tactic will exert any real pressure on Saied.
Image courtesy of News Central: Africa Desk, September 27 2021
But Tunisians, in general, appear to be divided in their opinion, going by the widespread pro- and anti-Saied protests that have taken place since July 2021. There is not even an agreement within Tunisia as to whether Saied’s actions qualify labeling the event as a “coup”. But this may have less to do with Tunisians’ perception of democracy than the demand for more concrete things like jobs and a system with lesser red tape. Saied’s primary targets so far have been judges and politicians, who are already held in contempt by most of the public. Therefore, it is no surprise that these groups have not had an outpouring of public support. Abstract ideas of democracy have never really resonated with the people of the Arab world, partly because ideas matter less than results. The fight for change rouses more emotions than calls for democracy. And it is imperative for the West to understand that these two do not necessarily mean the same thing in the Arab world, unlike in more ‘liberal’ societies.