Yemen Truce - Consequences of its Expiry
Since the expiry of the UN-backed truce in Yemen on 2 October 2022, clashes have occurred in several provinces. These attacks show that despite the UN efforts to negotiate the extension of the ceasefire, warring parties are not honouring the agreement under the truce.
Such events include an attack on a civilian bus by the Iran-backed Houthis that killed two people and injured around 11 in Taiz on 25 September 2022. On 27 September 2022, the Houthis attacked and killed three pro-government soldiers and wounded ten in Hodeidah. Then, on 30 September 2022, three pro-government soldiers were killed and four injured in a Houthi attack in the southern Governorate of Lahij. On October 1, two pro-government soldiers from the Shabwah Defence Forces were killed in an improvised explosive device (IED) attack. The attack occurred when their patrol passed by a public market in Ataq. It was launched by the Yemen-based al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). They targeted the pro-government forces, backed by the Saudi-led coalition, by striking from their hideouts in the mountainous areas of Shabwah.
These attacks by the Houthis and the AQAP hold a major significance. It has regularly caused a sharp rise in the pro-government forces' casualties. In the past two weeks, apart from the Houthis, the pro-government forces, backed by the Saudi-led coalition, had to face rising AQAP attacks.
Alongside the violence, several other issues were raised during the negotiations. It included reopening the Taiz routes, amongst many others that were not upheld. With the mounting attacks daily on its forces, the truce could not be extended as the Houthis made a significant demand- payment to its fighters. The Saudi-led coalition did not accept this condition as monetary payments to the Houthis would assist them in growing financially. Their financial growth will encourage other people to join the Houthis for income, which is essential in a war-torn region. It will further the strength of the Houthis and give them monetary motives to fight against the pro-government forces.
The Houthis demand for payment became the primary reason that the truce ended on 2 October 2022 without any extensions. Without the truce, there would only increase the casualties of the Houthi fighters, pro-government forces and the civilians as no major military operations were carried out during the truce.
So, with the truce coming to an end, it is expected for the Saudi-led coalition to mount offensive military operations in strategic locations, including Taiz, Marib and Shabwah. After all, Marib and Shabwah are oil-rich provinces, and Taiz is a strategic location. Taiz is considered the 'gateway to southern Yemen.' Also, these are regions where the Houthis have been mounting attacks mainly to gain strategic advantages.
The latest attack by the Houthis involved the Dhabah Oil Terminal in the Port of Shihr east of Mukalla using explosive-laden drones on 21 October 2022. It is, by far, one of the most significant attacks since the expiration of the truce. The attack occurred when crude oil was prepared to ship crude exports to the global markets. The attacks come weeks after the Houthis warned that they would attack oil and gas facilities in the UAE and Saudi Arabia until their demands are not met. They had also issued public threats to target international maritime and oil companies operating in Yemen and aimed to attack gas companies and foreign investors in Saudi Arabia and UAE. Hence, all such companies having sites in the region should be careful with their operations and make the necessary security arrangements. With a history of attacking the oil processing facility, the Iranian-backed Houthis have an even more added motive to attack the gas facilities in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Iran is currently facing a string of US sanctions amid a stalemate in nuclear talks, and these two countries are US allies in the Middle East.
As a result, Houthis may also be used to attack the countries apart from other reasons, including the fact that they accused Saudi-backed coalition forces of syphoning off $13 billion in Yemen oil revenues over the past five years.