Israel airstrikes Damascus Security Zone
On 19 February, Israel targeted a 10-story building in Kafr Sousa, killing over 15 people, including two women. Kafr Sousa is a high-security area and is a densely populated neighbourhood. As per reports, the latest attack targeted Iranian officials who were meeting to discuss the developments of drone or missile capabilities programs. Since the civil war in Syria, Israel has regularly carried out airstrikes, targeting pro-Iranian soldiers and Hezbollah militants as they use the region as a base. However, Israel rarely acknowledges its actions. Both Iran and Russia condemned Israel’s airstrikes.
The attack was significant in light of Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen's visit to Ukraine on February 16, 2023. Since the attack took place after the visit, it may offend Russia, as it will directly affect the geopolitical developments in Syria. It is because Russia is a pro-Assad regime ally and primarily controls the airspace in Syria.
So far, Russia has not responded much to Israel's airstrikes in Syria due to its security arrangements. However, since the commencement of the Russia-Ukraine war, it is evident how progress is spilling out in Syria, which is directly threatening Israel's security.
Since Israel is aware of this situation, it has been reluctant to take a decisive stance in the war. It has also placed a near-total embargo on arms and ammunition sales to Ukraine, despite pressure from the West, particularly the USA. Israel has genuine concerns over a Russian retaliation in Syria. Russia used S-400 defence systems on Israeli jets in Syrian airspace in May 2022 and the possible closure of the Jewish Agency in Russia in July 2022.
Be that may, another growing concern in the region is the increase in Iran's role in Syria. Due to the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia was forced to divert its S-300 defence systems from Syria and withdraw the Wagner Group mercenaries from Syria and Africa to Ukraine. Russia also withdrew troops from some districts of southwest and far eastern Syria. Eventually, Russia's focus towards Ukraine created a power vacuum that Iran quickly took over, as its presence is well known due to its alliance with the Assad government and its support to Hezbollah through the supply of arms and finance. Hence, in the limited presence of Russia, Iran will have more avenues to carry out activities that threaten Israeli security.
To add to those concerns in the Israel-Russia relations that soared during the period of Prime Minister Naftali Bennet and Yair Lapid. Hence, it is essential to monitor the developments in Israel-Russia concerning Syria, Israel’s role in Ukraine and how it balances itself between the West and Russia in the coming days. Since there is a power change in Israel with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu coming into power recently, it will be even more critical. After all, he has called Putin a friend and maintains warmer relations with him than his predecessors.