The Kenyan cost of Russia’s war
Tensions have already been rising throughout Kenya as elections near this August. Conspiracy theories and disinformation is an ongoing challenge in Africa but has been increasing due to the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to the United Nations, 44% of Africa’s wheat is imported from Russia and Ukraine despite Kenya being one of the continent's largest producers of wheat. Africa has already seen wheat prices increase by 45%, as reported by the African Development Bank, and is facing pressure by the International Monetary Fund to increase revenue, thus raising taxes on items like food and fuel. Whilst Kenyans are aware of the Ukrainian crisis and its global impacts, many refuse to accept that the rise in cost of food and fuel is due to Russia’s actions but solely point the blame to the Kenyan government.
“Deputy president William Ruto and his allies in the Kenya Kwanza Alliance say the blame falls squarely on President Uhuru Kenyatta and his ally Raila Odinga”. Kenyatta retaliated by stating that Ruto should resign from his position and that he absconded from his duties by not offering solutions to the economic turmoil. The continuation of this governmental discord will only exacerbate tensions for the upcoming election. The probability of peaceful elections seems slim due to the current behaviors of politicians and in light of the country’s track record. “The worst came after the 2007 election when 1,300 people were killed and hundreds of thousands fled their homes. Ruto was indicted for alleged orchestration of post-election violence along with Kenyatta by the International Criminal Court. Charges were later dropped”.
According to a government official with the Industry and Enterprise Development, Leparan Kaila, there is inevitable crime. “In conjunction with theft cases, financial instability has driven electoral misconduct. Some citizens accept bribes to incite violence in various primary election centers”. The Kenyan government continually fails at curbing corruption and politicians still abuse their authority for personal gain. Despite past remarks advocating for the elections to be a peaceful process, the politicians of Kenya are showing through their petty accusations that election violence is imminent.
Election violence was already a concern before the Russian invasion on Ukraine. Yet with the impact on food, oil and the overall economy, insecurity is even more probable due to continuous strains. Politicians and presidential candidates are capitalizing on this disquietude by finger-blaming. Not only does this skirt the true causes of inflation but it denies responsibility, creates political turmoil and neglects efforts for solutions.
Disinformation throughout Africa continues to be a critical issue that induces risk of election violence. Disinformation and hate speech videos are now running rampant on TikTok in Kenya. “An analysis of around 130 videos, which have collectively been viewed over 4 million times, indicate that TikTok has become a significant avenue for election-related disinformation, including attempts to stoke ethnic tensions, according to the report.” Much of the content refers to the 2007 election when over 1,000 Kenyans were killed from the very same prejudice towards certain ethnic groups. These social media posts have made explicit threats against the same groups that were targeted in past election seasons. The upcoming election in Kenya is already proving to be a contentious environment. From biased media reporting, sensational claims from battling parties to even a fake video of Obama endorsing a candidate, it is unlikely that many Kenyan citizens have valuable information to take with them to the polls.
Citizens also hold a responsibility in deciphering information, dismissing rumors and not engaging with those who seek to capitalize on chaos and spark violence. Countries in Africa are not an exception when it comes to their susceptibility to dis- and misinformation. However, conspiracy theories and rumors can be more valued than facts and spread at alarming rates. Many share ‘information’ with friends and family through WhatsApp and social media without including the sources. Fact checking is a practice few do throughout the world because they trust content provided to them by friends and family through social media. But with the general population in poor communities not owning smartphones, it is even less likely that these populations will be able to obtain accuracy in reporting.
COVID-19 related conspiracies that the Kenyan government created mandates only to profit from travel restrictions and testing costs have been commonplace. Whilst there is an understandably high amount of distrust in the government and their practices, citizens will jump to accusations such as this and continue the spread of misinformation; deepening the distrust in their own government. Widespread conspiracy theories suggest that the rising cost of food and fuel is not due to the war at all but only to government corruption. If discontent and rumours grow, it could lead to more violence and death. In Kenya’s past, “claims of electoral malfeasance have triggered violence that killed hundreds and displaced tens of thousands.”
The concern of violent eruptions will likely not ease once elections are over in August. Should the war in Ukraine continue, vulnerable populations will expand due to inflation. According to Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF, “war in Ukraine means hunger in Africa”. If impacts continue on resources and the economies throughout Africa, those struggling will become more at risk and the likelihood of joining extremist groups out of desperation will exponentially increase. “The U.N. has warned that an estimated 13 million people were facing severe hunger in the Horn of Africa region as a result of a persistent drought”. Climate change and droughts increased recruits for ISIS in Iraq and for al-Shabaab in Somalia. Many Somalis fear starvation even more than al-Shabaab. “Even if Somalia has security problems, if someone has to die, it’s best if he dies while in good shape, other than dying of hunger”, stated a Somali farmer.
The combination of COVID-19 economic recovery, impacts from the Russian invasion, drought, political corruption and the spread of disinformation amongst civilians is a dangerous tinderbox for this August’s elections. The horn of Africa’s vulnerable populations struggling from poverty and climate change are at risk of joining terrorist groups that take advantage of such instability. Additionally, “women are bearing the brunt of the [drought] crisis – they are the last to eat in each household, and the first to be displaced”. The human security discord of the region will no doubt create further tensions throughout the horn and particularly in Kenya.
Whilst many in Kenya may not feel a direct impact from violent eruptions this election due to them primarily taking place in slums and rural communities, the long-lasting impacts are eminent. Food insecurity, displacement and mistrust in the government create a fragile environment that is a perfect storm for radicalisation and recruitment. Mona Juul, Permanent Representative of Norway to the United Nations, stated that “where vulnerabilities overlap, solutions tend to overlap as well”. Civilians need to do their part this election season in mitigating information and preventing violence. Additionally, Kenyan politicians must cease their squabbles and work towards solutions that will not only limit electoral violence but also prevent Kenya’s possibility from becoming another African terrorist stronghold.