Initial Talks Underway as Fighting Continues

Current Figures

• At least 550 killed and 4,926 wounded

• 7-day ceasefire started May 4 not upheld

• UNICEF estimates 7 children killed or injured per hour

• IRC warns possibly 400,000 IDPs may need support

• Both sides blame each other for recent Turkish envoy attack; Embassy will be moved to Port of Sudan

• Over 100,000 have fled into neighbouring countries

• 9,700 have fled to CAR; more expected

Representatives Meet in Jeddah

Representatives from both sides are currently meeting in Saudi Arabia for pre-negotiation talks. Saudi Arabia and the United States are hosting the talks. Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan announced the development on Twitter Saturday, expressing the hope of ending the conflict. 

Statements have not clarified a timeline for the talks, though they are expected to last two or three days. 

Fighting Persists Despite Ceasefire

Gunfire and airstrikes have continued despite the announcement of yet another ceasefire that was to begin on May 4th. SAF’s “Burhan supported the seven-day ceasefire by South Sudan Wednesday but RSF said early Friday they were extending by three days a previous truce brokered under US-Saudi mediation.” Despite representatives being in Saudi Arabia for initial talks, reports of airstrikes and explosions in Khartoum continue. 

US President Joseph Biden threatened to impose sanctions on responsible parties and has established plans for future actions: “The executive order signed by Biden on Thursday authorizes future sanctions against individuals determined to be destabilizing the country and “undermining Sudan’s democratic transition,” as well as committing violence against civilians or perpetuating other human rights abuses.”

Border Concerns

Egypt

Egyptian state media is raising growing concerns that a border crisis could ensue between the two states. Media reports from Egypt are portraying that the conflict could create a “resurgence” of the Omar Al-Bashir regime. According to them,  Bashir’s regime was predominately supported by the Muslim Brotherhood, “which many Sudanese believe is the third main player in the current conflict.” The Egyptian government is concerned that the Muslim Brotherhood may have had a role in creating the conflict and “how they could disrupt Egyptian-Sudanese relations in the future should they regain influence in Khartoum.”

Nigerian Citizens

Nigerians in Diaspora Commission (NIDCOM) spokesman, Abdur-Rahman Balogun, stated on Thursday that Nigerians fleeing Sudan have been denied access into Egypt and Ethiopia, due to fears that they may stay and not return to Nigeria. According to NIDCOM, the highest population of foreigners in Sudan are Nigerian. “There are about 5,000 Nigerian students in Sudan and a total of about two to three million Nigerians. No country has that number of citizens in the country.” Nigerians were left stranded for days as Egypt authorities refused to permit them entry. Authorities have since permitted entry to Nigerians, but, according to Balogun, the government had to sign an agreement and now require certain conditions to be met: “Details and schedule of the aircraft; capacity of the aircraft; a strong pledge that once our citizens depart the border, they will be conveyed directly to the designated airport; a comprehensive list of the evacuees, with passport numbers and valid travel documents.”

Chad

As of May 4th, the UNHCR has estimated 30,000 arrivals into Chad at 25 entry points. Approximately 63% of arrivals are women. Chad was hosting 400,000 refugees before the conflict began on April 15th. 

As the situation for those fleeing and those trapped in Sudan without passports is worsening, the UNHCR called upon governments on Friday to not turn away those seeking haven. “We’re advising governments not to return people to Sudan because of the conflict that’s going on there. This applies to Sudanese nationals, to foreign nationals, including refugees who are being hosted in Sudan, stateless persons, as well as those who do not have a passport or any other form of identification”.

Looking Forward

Initial talks are underway in Saudi Arabia are a critical development. While this initiative shows progress, one should be cautiously hopeful. No details have been provided on who the representatives are or how long discussions will last. What is evident is that both warring parties show zero consideration for a sixth declared ceasefire or that casualties continue amidst ‘peace’ talks. Warnings of potential sanctions by the US are understandable and will hopefully add pressure for the generals to come to a true agreement. However, history has shown sanctions are rarely adhered to. With the multitude of international players and the involvement of the Wagner Group (who is not registered in any country), it is highly probable that foreign intervention will continue or escalate. 

In just a few weeks, the situation in Sudan and its impact on neighbouring countries has catapulted to an extreme level. Reports of governments not assisting those stranded without access to their passports or being turned away at borders has created a humanitarian catastrophe. Should states lessen or revoke restrictions on those fleeing to grant them entry, it is questionable as to how governments will be able to support refugees, especially in Chad and South Sudan. Additionally, security concerns are likely to grow. This not only concerns the fighting spreading across borders, but also the potential risks brought to governments regarding entrance policies, particularly when considering recent prison breaks. Additionally, those fleeing are even more vulnerable to crime organisations or terrorist groups who are known to take advantage of such populations. 

While many global players will be on edge over the coming days, it will be critical for the Saudi and American hosts to not become impatient during negotiations. It remains questionable how much influence these representatives have with Burhan and Hemedti, since the two parties continue to be inept at following through on their own words. Additionally, the US should not become overly enthusiastic about implementing sanctions, whether now or in the near future, as they are a band-aid after initial diplomatic efforts fail. Regardless as to what the outcome will be with these talks, what is certain is that the SAF and RSF will continue to shed blood throughout Sudan while they falsify a narrative of being open to peace.