Russia and the Wagner Group: Fuel for the Sudan Conflict
The sudden outbreak of fighting in Sudan is attributed to two men: Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) leader Abdul Fattah al-Burhan and the commander of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, often referred to as 'Hemedti'. This pair were recently "allies of convenience", working together in two separate instances - the first being in 2019, forcing Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir out of power, and in the October 2021 military coup. Since the coup, control over leadership has been in the hands of the Sudanese military, with Burhan as the de facto leader, with tensions running high. Burhan has been blamed for starting the violence by Hemedti, which he vehemently denies. There were promises of an election by the end of 2023, but with the outbreak of fighting, it seems neither are willing to concede.
As rapid escalation occurs, evidence of Russian support for the RSF prior to the conflict has become evident. Activity at Libyan air bases with connections to the Wagner Group and Russia indicates there were plans to back the RSF prior to the outbreak of fighting. The conflict in Sudan seems to satisfy both Russian interests in Sudanese gold and Hemedti's quest for power. Russian involvement in the fighting is a significant reminder of MENA's strategic importance for Russian interests.
The Wagner Group is a private military group with Russian ties and owned by Russian oligarch Evgeny Prigozhin. However, Russia denies any involvement with the group as mercenarism is a violation of Russian law. Therefore, the group is not registered in Russia or anywhere else in the world. Wagner, established in 2014 right before the Russian annexation of Crimea, plays a major role in Russian military efforts, notably in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Wagner Group first made its appearance in Sudan in 2017, where it founded Meroe Gold to explore and extract Sudan's vast gold resources. Here, the Wagner group strengthened its relationship with Hemedti, with members of the RSF providing protection to Meroe Gold. This relationship was key in the 2019 overthrow of al-Bashir, and their continued cooperation has been instrumental in gaining resources and power for the ongoing fighting in Sudan.
In February 2022, Hemedti traveled to Russia to secure military equipment and endorse the building of a Russian navy base on the Red Sea, a move Burhan did not support. According to sources, business between Sudan and the Wagner Group was a topic Hemedti and Burhans failed to agree on. Their differences over the Wagner Group marked a pivotal point in the escalation to conflict, as the increase in activity at Wagner airbases and the supplying of missiles to Hemedti marked a clear plan of war prior to fighting breaking out. While Russian motives are not fully clear regarding their cooperation with Hemedti, it is evident that Russia and the Wagner Group have crucial economic interests in Sudan. Additionally, the possibility of conflict spilling over to neighboring countries could be fatal for their other gold mining projects.
As Europe scrambles to rescue its foreign officials and citizens in Sudan, there is increased pressure on the West to take action to protect innocent Sudanese civilians. The EU has faced further criticism and condemnation of its funding of anti-migration projects to stop mass migration from Sudan to EU nations. Finland's Minister of Foreign Affairs Pekka Haavisto expressed that more should be done in Sudan, with fears of Russia's role increasing as the EU has been silent on its efforts to stop the violence. This only opens the opportunity for Russia to further their interests with Sudan.
This is not the first instance of Russian involvement in the MENA region. Russia has had a major involvement in the Syrian Civil war with economic and political interests. The Wagner Group has also played a vital role in the Syrian conflict, providing equipment and manpower in return for oil and gas. Additionally, they have supported the oil and gas company EvroPolis, owned by Prigozhin. Wagner also has a multitude of operations across Africa that are expanding as Russia continues disinformation campaigns around the continent.
Russia continues to contribute to the instability of MENA, and the Sudanese conflict is another vital piece of the plan to continue their role as a player within the region. Sudan offers Russia a range of economic sources and it seems Russia wants to position itself as a dominant military power. Russia seeks control and power in order to challenge those countries that threaten their economic sources in the region. The prospect of stability in MENA does not seem possible as long as Russia is involved, especially regarding Sudan.