Potential Power Shift Towards the SAF
Current Figures
At least 500 killed and 4,200 wounded
SAF claims RSF fired at Turkish evacuation plane on Friday
21,000+ cross borders into neighbouring countries, primarily Chad
Approx. 40,000 refugees from South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea have fled Khartoum
Healthcare near collapse; dozens of hospitals out of service
Humanitarian truce extended for 72hrs started at midnight on Sunday
Bashir Out of Prison
On Wednesday, it was reported by the Sudanese army that former autocratic ruler Omar al-Bashir and his allies have been moved from prison to a military hospital. However, the SAF has provided no proof that he is still being held. Many are concerned that Bashir will gain power and influence with the SAF, as there still remain many loyalists in the army.
Bashir has been in prison since the 2019 uprising and has been wanted for war crimes committed during the Darfur conflict by the International Criminal Court (ICC). Bashir created the RSF in 2013 to protect his government from potential coups. While members of both the SAF and RSF were involved in toppling Bashir in the uprising, Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP) has had angst against the RSF, particularly detesting Hemedti. Though al-Burhan is also responsible for removing Bashir, “he restored a number of NCP officials to their positions in the state bureaucracy after an October 2021 military coup which he spearheaded with Hemedti.” Now, Bashir-era officials have voiced support for the SAF and al-Burhan’s presidential bid should he win the war.
On 25th April, the SAF announced that prison police were forced to release inmates after a cut to water, electricity, and food, resulting in some officers being killed and injured. The SAF stated that this could deteriorate the general security of Khartoum and other states where prisoners are demanding to be released. The announcement added “[...] this may result in chaos and spread of crimes, especially that some of these prisoners are sentenced or pending for serious criminal crimes.”
RSF Seizes Lab, Biological Risk
The National Public Health Laboratory in Khartoum is now under the control of the RSF, with the World Health Organization (WHO) warning of a “huge biological risk”. The lab contains samples of various diseases, including polio, measles, and cholera, with medical personnel no longer having access to the lab. A high ranking medical source reported that “the danger lies in the outbreak of any armed confrontation in the laboratory because that will turn the laboratory into a germ bomb. An urgent and rapid international intervention is required to restore electricity and secure the laboratory from any armed confrontation because we are facing a real biological danger”.
Darfur Civil War Reignited
The UNHCR has expressed growing fears of the “deepening of a revival of ethnic tensions” in the Darfur region. Axel Bisschop, UNHCR representative in Sudan, stated that the situation developing in Darfur may be the greatest humanitarian challenge as it poses a “myriad of pressing protection issues”. Fighting in Genena has led to the involvement of tribal militias, “tapping into longtime hatreds between the region’s two main communities — one that identifies as Arab, the other as East or Central African.” A number of locations hosting IDPs were burned down and homes have been hit by gunfire. The battle between the RSF and SAF have sparked intercommunal violence with “deadly ethnic clashes” being reported in West Darfur, resulting in the deaths of 96 since 24th April. The SAF has largely refrained from the clashes, which now occur mostly between the RSF and tribal militias. Residents have taken up arms to defend themselves against rival tribes and the RSF. Looting is becoming rampant as hospitals, markets, banks, and government offices have been destroyed, leading the situation to be described as a “scorched earth war”.
Sudanese Visa Applicants Abandoned
As Western embassies have been evacuated, Sudanese visa applicants are now trapped in a warzone without being able to retrieve their passports. Hundreds or possibly thousands of applicants are stuck in Sudan without the ability to leave the country as their documents are locked up in the evacuated embassies. “Diplomats or civil servants from countries such as England, Sweden, Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain have since washed their hands of responsibility or failed to find adequate solutions”, according to lawyers of the stranded. As desperate Sudanese have contacted diplomats begging for a solution, Western civil servants have told them to apply for a new passport through local authorities. “Egypt, which is about 900km (430 miles) from Khartoum, is the closest and only viable escape route for many, but those without passports are not allowed in.” One person reported that when he called the Spanish embassy’s emergency line that the woman he spoke with refused to assist, only asking if he was Spanish and hanging up when he said he was not. Families are being separated as many who flee are leaving behind those without passports.
According to Emma DiNapoli, an expert in international law, Western governments are obligated to provide alternative documentation. “Western governments could be liable for restricting the freedom of movement of Sudanese nationals by not returning passports to visa applicants after fighting erupted.”
Looking Forward
The developments over the past few days are incredibly alarming and appear to tilt power towards the RSF. Without intervention, the seizing of the lab will likely result in the leaking of diseases, exacerbating the plethora of humanitarian crises. In 2017’s Re-Emerging Vaccine-Preventable Diseases in War-Affected Peoples of the Eastern Mediterranean Region article, authors examined how ongoing conflicts can create a volatile situation where vaccine preventable diseases can spread. “Wars, and the chaos they leave behind, often provide the optimal conditions for the growth and re-emergence of communicable diseases.” While the countries covered in the article focus on Iraq, South Sudan, Syria, and Yemen, the routes in this image show the danger of the spread of these diseases across regions as refugees seek haven. While vaccination efforts have made great strides in the region, the potential “germ bomb” poses significant risk to the unvaccinated in Sudan, particularly young children. Additionally, vulnerable populations who have not been vaccinated, and who may not have access to healthcare, are at substantial risk. The spread of polio, measles, and cholera not only impacts Sudan and neighbouring countries, but could spread across Africa, the Middle East, and into Europe as the migration crisis continues.
Volker Perthes, UN special representative in Sudan, warned of an increase in crime due to prisoners being released and referenced reports of “disturbing” attempts at sexual assault. “As fighting continues, law and order will further break down throughout the country, and command and control will dissipate. Sudan could become increasingly fragmented, which would have a devastating impact on the region.”
If Bashir or the NCP should gain influence, many activists that organised the protests that led to the uprising are in fear of becoming targeted. If the NCP returns to power, it would be the end of pro-democracy efforts in Sudan. Jawhara Kanu, a Sudanese expert on politics and the economy, stated, “[NCP] Islamists are notoriously known for persecuting people and I’m sure they have been keeping tabs and tracking people down. I think they will be a big threat [to civil society] if the military actually wins the war.”
The mystery of the whereabouts of al-Bashir may be the most alarming development as of yet in the conflict, which has now entered its third week. As some of his loyalists are now free, and he may be as well, there is a new power shift advancing in favour of the SAF. Even if Bashir is still in custody at a military hospital, it is questionable as to how long it will remain that way. While a victory for either side is unlikely to produce favourable conditions for the Sudanese, the possibility of a SAF-NCP win would be catastrophic. A transition to a civilian government fought for over the last few years would be insurmountable. Activists both in Sudan and in other countries would be hunted down, as is shown by the NCP’s history of doing so. As the civil war in Darfur resurges and multitudes of Sudanese have been abandoned without the ability to escape, it is currently impossible to be optimistic over the Sudan conflict. As Perthes sadly, and likely accurately, predicts, “Even if one side wins, Sudan will lose.”