Sudan Could Become the Site of International War

The recent spur in conflict in Sudan has caused concern regarding the country turning to civil war. Without a doubt, this would be a disastrous development for the Sudanese, a people already struggling with a food insecurity crisis and 3.7 million internally displaced persons (IDPs); the number continues to rise. According to Save the Children, a third of the population (15.8 million) are in need of humanitarian assistance. Gunfire and explosions have invaded the capital of Khartoum, where the majority of the city's 5 million people are sheltering at home without electricity or access to food or water. In less than a week, as many as 20,000 people have fled from the region of Darfur and crossed the border into Chad, a country that already hosts 400,000 refugees and has limited resources. As of the publication of this article, 420 people have been killed and at least 3,551 injured. 

External Competition

In addition to the concern over casualties, there needs to be consideration regarding the involvement of external actors that could exacerbate the conflict and turn Sudan into ground zero for a global war. A plethora of foreign countries have already become involved, some of which are trying to invoke diplomacy and bring stability. However, there are others who quickly evoked the role of puppet-master by supplying arms to opposite sides of the conflict, such as the Egyptian military and a Libyan militia. “Khalifa Haftar, the commander of a faction that controls eastern Libya, dispatched at least one plane to fly military supplies to Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces [... while] Egypt sent warplanes and pilots to back the Sudanese military”. 

While the US State Department is preparing to impose sanctions on the two parties, it is doubtful that it will be adhered to or serve as a warning to others who become involved. This has become evident through the development of Russia and the UAE teaming up to evade sanctions. “On the Emirati-Russian front, everything seems to be going smoothly: for a year now, hundreds of Russian companies have been created to circumvent Western sanctions, while banned oligarchs continue to do business and maintain their fortunes.” Both countries are in support of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) leader General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, and there is little doubt that this partnership would not extend to military action in Sudan. This is an alarming relationship when considering reports of Wagner’s track record of “alleged torture, mass killings and looting in several war-torn countries” and the allegation circulating that the UAE was behind an attempted coup by the RSF, a major cause of the conflict. 

The regional powers (Ethiopia, Eritrea, Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE) and the international powers (China, the EU, Russia, and the US) involved will play a critical role in how the conflict develops. “Sudan’s strategic position on the Red Sea, its access to the Nile River and vast gold reserves have long been coveted by outside powers.” Russia has already taken a role in plundering Sudan’s gold reserves through collusion with the Sudanese military in exchange for political and military support. This has enabled “billions of dollars in gold to bypass the Sudanese state and to deprive the poverty-stricken country of hundreds of millions in state revenue.” US officials confirmed that Russia was behind the 2021 coup that placed General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in power as the de facto head of state. Russia has evaded sanctions by using Sudan’s gold to fund their war efforts in Ukraine while backing military rule in Sudan and expanding Wagner activities. It is exceptionally doubtful that Russia has any concern over the stability of the nation or the consequences its civilians are already suffering from. One has only to look at Russia’s nefarious activities throughout the continent regarding disinformation, human rights violations, and their inability, or possibly lack of will, to gain a foothold against terrorism in Africa.

Risk of Terrorism

The conflict also opens the doors to terrorist groups, who are likely to take advantage of the instability and make their own attempts in acquiring access to crucial resources and infrastructures, such as oil and ports. “The Sahel is the region of the world most affected by terrorism, recording a noticeable deterioration in 2022 [...]”. The possibility of terrorist control in Sudan would also exacerbate the battle for influence among foreign nations. Suspected Wagner ties with General Hemedti, though denied, sets the stage for Western nations to possibly become involved in more than just diplomacy. A greater dependency on Wagner in Sudan would, without a doubt, impact Sudan’s relations with other African nations and Western counter-terrorism efforts across the continent. The likelihood of a Wagner expansion, and the possibility of their ties to a future leader, is severely dangerous. Not only when concerned with foreign relations and security sector reform, but also with what has been seen by their dishevelled operations that carry no regard for civilian lives. Regarding Wagner, the State Department stated that “The interference of such entities in Sudan’s internal conflict will only lead to more human suffering and delay the country’s transition to democracy.”

Additionally, resources could be pulled from other vulnerable nations and causes to apply focus on Sudan, creating further discord in Africa. With sub-Saharan Africa becoming the epicentre of terrorism, the conflict in Sudan could have a disastrous effect on counter-terrorism efforts in the continent, let alone furthering the decline in democracy, civilian risk, migration crisis, and creating new conflicts in the region. As Sudan plummets further into insecurity, it is ever more likely that groups like al-Qaeda will become intertwined in the conflict. A prime example as to what can be a consequence of civil war is the ongoing situation in Somalia, with al-Shabaab becoming the largest and richest al-Qaeda network in the world. 

Power Struggles

The conflict in Sudan is at a critical precipice. As of now, the impression is that the generals will fight to the end. “This conflict intends to name the next president,” says Bashir El-Shariff, a professor of political science at the Islamic University of Omdurman. A diplomat added, “There is a Gordian knot to be cut between them.” It is clear that both generals have complete disregard for the Sudanese people as the country is driven into further turmoil; evident by the repeated dismissal of previously agreed upon. As is shown through the worry of Sudan’s neighbours, instability rarely stays localised. Alan Boswell of the International Crisis Group poignantly stated, “What happens in Sudan will not stay in Sudan. [...] The longer (the fighting) drags on the more likely it is we see major external intervention.” 

Norway’s ambassador to Sudan, Endre Stiansen, stated, “One of the worst things that can happen is that this becomes a regional conflict where countries in the neighbourhood intervene on behalf of either of the parties.” While mediation is critically needed, governments that provide military supplies will generate an environment of complete bedlam that will be difficult to recover from. Unless foreign powers are able to quickly and successfully mediate the conflict, Sudan will be thrown into a civil war with massive international backing. Should the conflict continue on its current trajectory, the impacts will be felt across the continent while governments and militias fight each other for influence, with Sudan becoming the battleground of an international war.