Sudan Reaches Civil War Status at Two Month Mark
Current Figures
IOM: 1,670,991 IDPs
UNHCR: Over 471,278 externally displaced
Egypt: 215,565 (Sudanese refugees: 210,000, Other refugees: 5,565)
Chad: 115,980 (Sudanese refugees: 115,980)
South Sudan: 113,552 (Sudanese refugees: 5,033, Other refugees: 2,947, Refugee returnees: 105,572)
CAR: 15,094 (Sudanese refugees: 10,393, Refugee returnees: 4,701)
Ethiopia: 11,087 (Sudanese refugees: 3,399, Other refugees: 7,546, Refugee returnees: 142)
Egypt & UAE Passive as Kenya Forces Its Way In
Diplomats are partially blaming regional actors for supporting the two sides and not applying needed pressure for them to take peace talks seriously. A US official stated that “Bringing more regional players to support talks, such as Egypt, which sees the army as the best bet for a stable neighbour, and the United Arab Emirates, which has backed the RSF leader in the past, may be key to progress.”
Kenyan President William Ruto is making an attempt to insert himself into negotiations as he announced an initiative during the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) summit to bring the generals to a “face to face” meeting and create a humanitarian corridor within two weeks to allow humanitarian aid assistance. The initiative also includes that he will organise a national dialogue to take place in Sudan within just three weeks. Ruto has little to no influential power in such a high-stakes conflict and is incredibly unrealistic in such an initiative, evident by Sudan’s reaction to his announcement. Ruto appears to have made such declarations precipitously as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Sudan put out a press release on Tuesday stating there was no discussion between Sudan and the IGAD mediators and that they do not recognize Ruto’s statements:
“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Sudan would like to inform that the Sudanese delegation participating in the IGAD Summit, held in Djibouti on June 12, 2023, expressed its disagreement and objection to several paragraphs included in the draft final statement of the summit due to their lack of discussion and agreement. The delegation requested the IGAD Secretariat to delete those paragraphs.”
West Darfur Governor Murdered by RSF
Yesterday morning, West Darfur Governor Khamis Abakar spoke to Al-Hadath TV from El Geneina “as gun and artillery fire could be heard” while he called for international intervention. Abakar called the ongoing situation a “genocide” and stated that large amounts of civilians are being killed at random across the the city while the army will not “leave its base to defend people.” According to the Sudan News, a video broadcasted by the RSF shows that Abakar was later kidnapped and killed, his body covered in blood. AFP News Agency stated the SAF has accused the paramilitary of killing Abakar. The RSF has yet to respond.
Only 2% of Rape Cases Reported
Rapes and abductions continue to be reported, mostly accusing the RSF. At least 36 cases of sexual assault have been reported in Khartoum alone, with gang rapes and abductions targeting girls between the ages of 12 and 17. According to the Combating Violence Against Women Unit at the Ministry of Social Affairs, these cases “represent only two per cent of the actual numbers of cases of sexual violence in Khartoum.”
One woman was escaping Khartoum when her evacuation bus was stopped by the RSF at a checkpoint. "I was pinned down by one man while the other raped me. When he was done, they switched. They wanted to keep my sister with them. I begged them on my hands and knees to let her go." Last month, a case was reported where three SAF soldiers broke into a home in Khartoum, beat the son and raped the mother and daughter. "Their neighbours heard them screaming for hours."
In another case in Darfur in late April, 12 women were ordered by gunmen to join in looting a warehouse. Upon entering, the doors were locked and all 12 were raped. "Women and girls are being abducted to a hotel the RSF has commandeered, where they're kept for two or three days, raped repeatedly,” stated a local human rights defender. Women throughout Sudan have no safe haven and are living in fear even in their homes. A woman in Khartoum was at home with her children when her three female neighbours downstairs were gang raped. They then went upstairs where they broke down the door and one locked himself inside with her. "We have seen the rape of young girls and old women, mothers with their children. [To the perpetrators] "it doesn't matter".
As healthcare in Sudan is near a full collapse, HIV medications and emergency contraceptives are nearly impossible to acquire. In Khartoum, only 6 out of the 88 hospitals are functioning.
SAF Targets Tribes
The SAF is reportedly targeting tribesmen in Khartoum that they believe are tied to the RSF. On May 20, the SAF shot and killed a young Misseriya man after questioning what tribe he belonged to. “Because many RSF soldiers have been recruited from the Misseriya and Rizeigat tribes in the western and southern parts of Sudan, members of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) consider all these tribesmen as ‘supporters of the enemy’.” The Darfur Bar Association released a statement on Sunday condemning arbitrary arrests and the targeting and killing of members of the Misseriya tribe.
Looking Forward
Today marks two months since the fighting began. Sudan has entered into its next phase as a civil war, reaching numbers of over 1,000 killed (the accepted academic threshold) which are grossly underreported. Over one and a half million people are internally displaced, nearly half a million have fled, and the true numbers of girls and women raped and lives lost remain to be known. Neither side have been able to make significant advances in the conflict and both are steadfast in their refusal to make any progress in discussions. Burhan and Hemedti alongside their soldiers continue their war crime legacies that brought them under the spotlight during the Darfur genocide. It is clear that neither leader has ever nor will ever have concern for human rights or grant safe access for humanitarian aid the Sudanese so desperately need.
Therefore, those involved in negotiations for peace must target what Burhan and Hemedti do care about. Sanctions have thus far made no impact on the conflict and typically have poor success rates. Focusing on Egypt and the UAE’s relationships with the SAF and RSF could apply the force needed to reach a true agreement. However, the likelihood of either of these nations having enough influence or setting aside their personal interests for those who are suffering is diminutive. According to Magdi El Gizouli, an analyst at the Rift Valley Institute, "Nobody will negotiate in earnest until they feel that the military balance is not moveable any more. The internal dynamic of this war is a bit beyond what an external actor can really influence".
Sixty-one days later, there is no end in sight. How the US, Saudi Arabia, and others will leverage their influence to push Burhan and Hemedit into a corner is unknown. The situation in Khartoum and Darfur is steadily deteriorating. Public reaction on twitter shows outrage and sadness over the killing of Abakar which will no doubt be capitalised by the SAF. Women will continue to bare the brunt of attacks in and outside of Sudan as rape continues to be used as a weapon of war. Tensions will advance along ethnic divides, resulting in an expansion of fighting and more human rights abuses. What will the state of Sudan be in another 61 days? As writer and Holocaust survivor Elie Wiesel once wrote, “Granted that every war is madness — civil war, fratricide, is the worst of all: it reaches deeper into ugliness, cruelty and absurdity.” The only current certainty in Sudan’s civil war is that the continuation of the destruction of lives will be abominable and further reports of horror will soon desensitise the public, who will regard the crisis as ‘yet another conflict in Africa.’