RSF Advances While Announcing Eid Truce
Current Figures
IOM: 1,965,946 IDPs
UNHCR: Over 563,680 externally displaced
Egypt: 255,565 (Sudanese refugees: 250,000; Other refugees: 5,565)
Chad: 142,584 (Sudanese refugees: 142,584)
South Sudan: 135,100 (Sudanese refugees: 7,961; Other refugees: 3,272; Refugee returnees: 123,867)
CAR: 15,335 (Sudanese refugees: 10,634, Refugee returnees: 4,701)
Ethiopia: 15,096 (Sudanese refugees: 6,225; Other refugees: 8,589; Refugee returnees: 282)
Truce Declared in Honour of Eid
Casualty figures have drastically jumped over the last week with the Sudan health minister reporting that over 3,000 have been killed and 6,000 injured. While both parties announced a 72 hour ceasefire last Sunday, an airstrike killed 17 civilians, including five children, in Khartoum. Fighting continues to intensify while the UN remains concerned of a renewed genocide in Darfur.
To observe the Muslim holiday Eid al-Adha, Hemedti announced a unilateral truce for today and tomorrow. As of the writing of this report, it has not been confirmed if Burhan will participate in the truce. The series of failed ceasefires that have occurred over the last two months indicate that a truce is highly unlikely.
RSF Makes Gains with the Help of Wagner and UAE
The RSF has made an advancement in the war as they have taken control of the well-equipped Central Reserve Police headquarters in the capital. The RSF stated it had “captured 160 pickup trucks, 75 armoured personnel carriers, and 27 tanks” along with boxes of ammunition. According to the Sudan Tribune, SAF supporters claimed that the withdrawal from the police station was a ploy to gather RSF soldiers at the headquarters and then fire an airstrike. Whether or not such a manoeuvre was planned, no such attack has yet to occur.
Wagner has been supplying arms to Hemedti’s RSF via supply routes that run through Darfur. Intelligence sources report that Wagner had been increasing supplies into Sudan shortly before the conflict began. “On the day before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Dagalo [Hemedti] headed a Sudanese delegation in Moscow to “advance relations” between the two countries.” In addition to the land routes through Darfur, “armaments appear to have been shuttled into Sudan through key transit points: Russia’s air and naval base in the Syrian coastal region of Latakia, Wagner bases in Libya, and Bangui airport in the Central African Republic.” Wagner also supplied the RSF with surface-to-air missiles which has significantly assisted them over the last two months. Fear amongst the international community is rising as many worry that Wagner support is allowing Hemedti to create a “bigger” and “badder” RSF, which may spread across the region.
In addition to anti-aircraft missiles, the RSF has been supplied with armed drones, dissolving the army’s control over the skies. While Iran has been supplying the SAF with drones, it is currently unknown who is providing the RSF with theirs. Some experts have stated that the drones likely come from military caches the RSF has managed to take over. However, War Noir, a pseudonym used by a conflict and weapons researcher, has pointed to evidence that shows that the drones may be coming from the UAE, a known backer of the RSF. The same type of missiles have been shown in other RSF videos and have been compared to armed drones used in Yemen and Ethiopia, both in locations where “UAE-backed forces operate”.
Fighting Spreads with Rebel Groups
Attacks by the Sudan People's Liberation Movement–North (SPLM-N), Sudan’s most powerful rebel group, have spread to Blue Nile state near the border with Ethiopia. “The United Nations mission in Sudan said hundreds of civilians had crossed the border into Ethiopia to seek safety due to clashes in Blue Nile” that occurred over the last two days.
Multiple clashes between the army and SPLM-N have been reported in recent days, with the SAF accusing the rebel group of breaking long-standing ceasefires and initiating attacks. Last week, clashes between the SPLM-N and the SAF broke out in South Kordofan state, leading many to worry that fighting is spreading in southern regions. Conflicting reports are coming from Delling as some sources state that the SPLM-N has full control of the Delling-Kadugli road while others claim that the army was able to successfully repel the attack.
Looking Forward
As information unfolds about UAE participation in the Sudan civil war, it brings to question how the US and Saudi Arabia will respond as leaders in the negotiations. The Wagner connection has been known and is unsurprising due to Wagner-controlled gold mines in Sudan being one of Russia’s financial sources for the war in Ukraine. The US imposed sanctions on Ivan Aleksandrovich Maslov, head of a Wagner Group unit based in Mali, for the same “transit of material acquisitions” in Mali that also funds Moscow in Ukraine. Additionally, the US imposed sanctions on Hemedti, Burhan, and their military parties in order to block their ability to rearm and supply their war efforts. Thus far, these sanctions have proven incapable of aiding any cessation in hostilities, let alone fully dissolving the war in either country. Yet, how might the US and Saudi Arabia respond to the UAE government involvement in Sudan? The US threatened the UAE with sanctions earlier this year due to an aviation firm supporting Wagner in Ukraine. But the supplying of armed aircraft to either party in Sudan should warrant a stronger response as the war is turning into a regional catastrophe across sectors. Unfortunately, it is likely that the US and Saudi Arabia will only give the UAE a slap on the wrist, putting forth minimal efforts in demanding that they cease supplying arms via weak statements that have no real repercussions.
A conference last week led to countries stepping up to collectively donate $1.5 billion for humanitarian aid in Sudan. Unfortunately, it is only half of what the UN estimates is needed. As the war continues, the gap between funding needs and donation commitments will grow. All host countries are experiencing strains as more refugees cross borders and the high price tag will only rise. While humanitarian aid is an initial concern, organisations and governments will also need to consider a plan for long-term support, as hundreds of thousands of people will not be able to return home any time soon.
The spread of violence and the increasing probability of armed groups outside of the SAF and RSF taking advantage of the chaos is evident by the attacks in Southern Sudan. While the SPLM-N was already prominent in Sudan, more groups will form and / or expand their presence as they fight over resources and control in a collapsing state. The RSF may be advancing at the moment, but it can be expected that more parties outside of Sudan will increase support to their chosen party, be it one of the warring sides, the SPLM-N, or terrorist groups. Gains achieved by the RSF may induce concern for those who back the SAF and result in the army receiving an influx of supplies, possibly from Iran. It is clear that the doorways to sending arms into Sudan are improbable of being fully closed. With the multitude of trafficking routes and actors who are providing weapons, the conflict will certainly persist and heighten to levels we have yet to see.