Sudan Renews Relations with Iran, Use of Child Soldiers Likely to Increase
Current Figures
IOM: 2,231,523 IDPs
UNHCR: Over 641,445 externally displaced
Egypt: 255,565 (Sudanese refugees: 250,000; Other refugees: 5,565)
Chad: 192,473 (Sudanese refugees: 192,473)
South Sudan: 153,822 (Sudanese refugees: 9,782; Other refugees: 3,298; Refugee returnees: 140,742)
Ethiopia: 22,866 (Sudanese refugees: 13,513; Other refugees: 9,067; Refugee returnees: 286)
CAR: 16,719 (Sudanese refugees: 12,018, Refugee returnees: 4,701)
SAF Calls for Civilian ‘Volunteers’
The SAF has made a few calls for Sudan’s youth to enlist into the army. Burhan made a statement on Monday and also appeared on TV, asking civilians to join “the military movement.” As of yet, it is not clear if this is voluntary, as the SAF claims, or if this will be a forced conscription. According to a Facebook post by the SAF, the Sudanese youth is responding to the call for mobilisation and arriving at enlistment sites. While the images are of poor quality, the majority of those seen in these photos appear to be middle-aged men, not the ‘youths’ the SAF claims is moved to meet the “national call.”
Sudan Plans to Restore Relations with Iran
Sudan’s acting Foreign Minister Ali Sadeq Ali met with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on Thursday to discuss diplomatic relations between the two nations. Former President Omar al-Bashir had severed ties in 2016 to show solidarity with Saudi Arabia after their embassy was attacked in Tehran.
The discussions focused on resolving tensions and strengthening political and economic relations between Sudan and Iran. “The Foreign Ministry statement mentioned that Sadeq Ali discussed with his Iranian counterpart the developments in Sudan and informed him about the Sudanese army’s ability to ‘swiftly resolve the rebellion.’” According to pan-Arab newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat, “Amir-Abdollahian stated that his government considers the ongoing events ‘an internal matter’ and emphasized that the solution should come from the Sudanese themselves, without any external interference.”
RSF Accused of Terrorising Town
The RSF has been accused of a “shooting and looting rampage” in the town of Bara, 50km northeast of El-Obeid. El-OBeid is a strategic town that holds an airport and large warehouses with supplies. According to civilians, the RSF continues attacks while the army does little to protect them. Banks and public buildings have been looted while the RSF indiscriminately shoots at civilians with the police nowhere to be seen. “We're being terrorised: they shoot and loot, and the army and police are nowhere to be seen,” stated one witness.
Looking Forward
Amir-Abdollahian’s statements regarding Sudan solving its own problems without an “external interference” is a significant hypocrisy. Iran has been supplying the SAF with tactical drones for several years and is likely still doing so. One such Iranian-made UAV that has been supplied to Sudan is the Ababil-3, which can carry a 45kg warhead. Relations with Iran may have been severed on paper over the last several years, but Iran’s ‘interference’ with Sudan is nothing new. Iran has been smuggling arms into Africa for decades and benefits from its partnership with China and Russia in order to counter Western interests. “Iran’s increasing partnerships with China and Russia make Tehran increasingly seek new interests in Africa, especially regarding Moscow and its proposed base in Sudan.” Whether or not Iran continued to supply the army with weapons since Bashir cut ties, it is apparent that Iran-made arms will once again be sent to Sudan.
The fact that Sudan is working to restore relations with Iran will no doubt cause alarm to leading negotiators from the US and Saudi Arabia. This may likely cause them to push harder in the Jeddah talks, hoping to find an agreement between the warring parties and interject any developments between Sudan and Iran. However, the threat of Iranian relations could also cause the US and Saudi Arabia to make concessions in future negotiations if they become desperate enough. The further threat to Western interests in Africa could push the US to take more aggressive actions with Hemedti and Burhan, or it could put the US in a corner to become more lenient.
Burhan’s call for civilians to enlist, whether through volunteering or force, indicates that the military could be struggling and that their fight against the RSF is not as easy as they continually state in their propaganda. As more civilians die and report abuse from both sides, it is likely that conscription will become forced, if it is not already. With Sudan’s history in their use of child soldiers, it is increasingly likely that the SAF, and also the RSF, will recruit and kidnap children to be used in their war. In the UN’s General Assembly Security Council report that covered the use of child soldiers in 2021, it confirmed 202 grave violations against 195 children and the “killing (54) and maiming (112) of 166 children” by both the SAF and RSF. Sudanese militias have been known to use children as young as 11 years old.
As the war continues with no developments having been made recently with negotiations, the consequences of fighting continue to build. Sudan-Iran relations pose a significant threat to US and Saudi influence in peace talks. Additionally, the probability of the increased use of child soldiers will greatly alter how the war is fought and produce lasting complications for the country and its society. As atrocities and casualties continue to mount, yet another humanitarian catastrophe is beginning to appear in the Sudan civil war.