Emerging Disruptive Technologies
Emerging disruptive technologies have the potential to significantly impact and transform various industries, shaping the way we live, work, and interact with the world around us. In this report, we explore a range of such technologies and their potential applications, as well as the ethical and moral considerations that they raise.
These technologies include cultured meats, which are an alternative to traditional animal agriculture; artificial intelligence, which has the potential to revolutionize various industries; quantum computing and quantum cryptography, which leverage the principles of quantum mechanics to perform calculations and transmit information; nuclear fusion reactors, which could provide a virtually limitless and clean source of energy; solar geoengineering, which involves manipulating the Earth's climate to mitigate the effects of global warming; asteroid mining, which could provide access to rare and valuable materials; space-based solar power, which could provide a stable and reliable source of renewable energy; green hydrogen, which is produced through the electrolysis of water using renewable energy sources; lethal autonomous weapon systems, which are a type of military technology that can select and engage targets without human intervention; directed energy weapons, which use focused energy to disable or destroy targets; anti-satellite weapons, which are designed to disrupt, disable, or destroy satellites in orbit; regenerative medicine, which involves the repair and replacement of damaged or diseased tissues and organs; and finally genetic engineering, which involves the manipulation of an organism's genome using biotechnology.
Throughout this report, we delve into the characteristics, current development status, key actors, the technology’s supply chains, as well as the technologies’ potential applications. We also examine the potential impacts of these technologies on their respective industries and on society as a whole.
China’s Race for AI Supremacy
In 2017, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) set out its “New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan”, setting a deadline to be the world leader in AI by 2030, unseating the US from its long-held top position. This is more than a symbolic race with the US though. AI is a key industry of the future and will redefine many aspects of the economic, social, and military spheres. China is determined to lead. Unsurprisingly, the US is keen to defend its top spot, but China’s long-term trajectory, ambitions, and unique advantages make for an interesting battle in years to come.
Currently, the US is ranked as the dominant player in AI investment, largely due to the thriving tech hub of Silicon Valley combined with the nation's strong and stable capital markets. US total private investment in AI is three times higher than in China, and the US has twice as many AI start-ups. A key difference in the two countries' approach to AI is the role of the state. Much of Chinese AI investment is controlled by the central government, which has launched several tech-investment vehicles. Figures here are opaque, though the 2017 plan suggested an investment of 1 trillion RMB ($138 Bn USD) over the next few years. Although a significant sum, it would not draw level with US numbers. China is, however, rapidly emerging as a leader in AI research. Indeed, accounting for AI research publications, China had 63.2% more publications than the US in 2021. But analysts have commented that these publications were, on average, of a lower quality compared to US ones.
Many consider the race for AI supremacy almost synonymous with the race for semiconductor supremacy and, therefore, linked with the national capacity to build high-end computer chips. Indeed, advanced chips are crucial for cutting-edge AI research and development. China has lagged behind the US in this regard, producing only 6% of the chips it used in 2020, whilst having even lower numbers for the most advanced chip technology.
The supply chains behind these advanced chips are complex and rely on numerous highly specialised suppliers. Currently, the United States and its allies have a significant competitive advantage in most parts of the supply chain of these chips. For example, the US firm Nvidia dominates AI chip design, and three other US firms dominate electronic design automation (EDA) software used to design chips.
Chinese firms are also far behind on AI chip design and heavily rely on US EDA software. ASML, a pioneering Dutch firm, claims 80% of the total market for lithography machines that make semiconductors. It is the only company capable of making the cutting-edge extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines used to make the most advanced chips needed for AI research and development.
In its efforts to restrict China’s AI progress, the US has pushed ASML to stop selling its EUV machines to China. They can still sell less advanced deep ultraviolet (DUV) machines, but the US is now pushing for the Dutch government to ban exports of these machines to China as well. The US has also moved to restrict exports of EDA software. China is placing a huge focus on its semiconductor industry and has invested heavily, in 2015 setting out a target of 70% of chip supply to be met domestically by 2025. However, this figure is now expected not to surpass 20% by 2025.
The competition over AI is not confined to funding and hardware. High-performance AI also requires immense quantities of data. The race for AI supremacy cannot be won without procuring and compiling large-scale datasets that are needed to train AI models. This is where the surveillance state plays into China’s hands, in contrast to the West’s focus on privacy. Combine this with both the scale of China’s population (over four times larger than the US), and the booming digital economy with vibrant social networks and online commerce having almost entirely replaced cash, and China finds itself with a significant data advantage.
Further, China is investing heavily in the Belt and Road Initiative, which may extend its data advantage beyond its borders. Indeed, MI6 chief Richard Moore has warned of China’s “data-traps” abroad, whereby it uses its economic heft to “harvest data from around the world” and “get people on the hook”. Data is the fuel of the AI economy, and China is keen to extend its advantage here.
Abroad, there is much concern over China’s approach to ethics within AI as well as concern over how China may use AI to boost its military capabilities. The lack of focus on ethics may partially explain China’s AI progress. Whilst other countries are held up by regulation and lengthy discussions and deliberation on ethics, China has powered ahead. Nicolas Chaillan, the Pentagon’s first chief software officer, has already criticised debates on AI ethics for slowing down development within the military. Chaillan also directed blame toward Google’s refusal to work with the military on AI. This is a stark contrast to China where, he said, Chinese companies are obliged to work with Beijing and are making “massive investment” into AI without regard for ethics.
Technological prowess and semiconductor advantage is keeping the West ahead of China for now. But China’s vision for a world order that places surveillance above privacy, and forgoes ethics in favour of state ambitions, may well give it the upper hand in the race for AI supremacy.
