Wagner News Update (25 September - 1 October)
Written by: Ridipt Singh
Summary
Wagner Group fighters are back in combat roles in Ukraine but operate under different pro-Russian units rather than an organized PMC. Vladimir Putin’s meeting with a former Wagner commander now working with the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) suggests a likely new leadership for Wagner. However, given his current position is in the Russian MoD, his appointment is likely to get Wagner fighters integrated with the MoD rather than revamp the organization.
Developments
Wagner Group mercenaries are back in Ukraine fighting in Bakhmut under the command of multiple Russian military units. Their presence is scattered, does not form any organized force, and has no significant impact on the battlefield.
Vladimir Putin met former senior Wagner commander Andrei Troshev (a.k.a “Sedoi” or “Grey Hair”) alongside Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov to discuss how to use the Wagner “volunteer” units in Ukraine. In an earlier meeting, it was agreed that Troshev would be involved in the creation of “volunteer units for combat roles” to be deployed in Ukraine.
President Putin mentions cash handouts as social guarantees through the “Defenders of the Fatherland” fund.
Wagner fighters continue to operate in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Mali with autonomy but are facing complications in Syria.
Dmitry Sytii, (formerly with the Internet Research Agency) is now the frontman for Wagner operations in the Central African Republic.
Wagner logos, stickers, and patches were spotted across Europe near landmarks in France, Greece, and Italy. A Belarusian man was forced to apologize for accusing a post office visitor of wearing a Wagner Group chevron.
International Reactions
The UK Defence Intelligence says hundreds of former Wagner fighters are beginning to redeploy to Ukraine under Russian forces or other PMC groups. Further stating that having fought in Bakhmut, their experience is in demand in the sector.
UK Intelligence says Andrei Troshev is likely to be considered a traitor by Wagner veterans due to his involvement in encouraging Wagner fighters to sign contracts with the Russian MoD.
Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to President Zelenskyy, says that after Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death, Russia has tried to take full control of the group, and therefore Wagner does not exist as a private company anymore.
Natia Seskuria of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) says the Kremlin’s confirmation of Troshev working for the MoD indicates that the “MoD is taking full control” of Wagner fighters in Ukraine.
US military officials say multiple African nations regret giving access to Wagner. US defense officials earlier stated that there has been no meaningful withdrawal in the number of Wagner fighters in Africa.
Scenario/Lines of Analysis
Wagner Group fighters are now redeployed in Ukraine but have no significant impact. The Russian government is assigning Andrei Troshev who at the time is working closely with the Russian Ministry of Defence to take command of the Wagner fighters in Ukraine. In the meeting with Troshev, President Putin mentioned that Troshev was tasked with creating volunteer units and managing them. Hence, the Russian government is likely trying to use the remaining Wagner fighters and their combat experience in the terrain.
Andrei Troshev is currently employed by the Russian Defence Ministry. His meeting with President Putin with the Deputy Defence Minister has led to speculations that Putin is trying to regain and re-exert his influence on the mercenary group. Given Troshev’s position in encouraging Wagner mercenaries to sign contracts with the Defence Ministry, the Russian government is likely trying to make Wagner fighters more integrated with the MoD. The social guarantees from the Defenders of the Fatherland fund could very likely be a way of incentivizing former Wagner fighters to return to combat roles in Ukraine alongside the Russian forces.
The future of Wagner as a PMC was under speculation after the death of Prigozhin. Currently, Wagner fighters are engaged in Africa, Syria, and are now redeploying to Ukraine. However, the Russian Deputy Defence Minister persuading African authorities to not cooperate with Wagner forces and the ongoing developments, likely suggest that the Russian government aims to reduce Wagner’s autonomy and exercise full control of Wagner fighters rather than revamp it as an independent PMC.