Wagner focusing on Africa

In his first appearance since the failed mutiny in Russia, Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on Telegram that Wagner will be pulling their troops out of Ukraine and redeploying to Africa. In a video filmed at dusk, Prigozhin speaks to troops gathered outside in Belarus stating, “What’s happening now at the front is a disgrace and there’s no need for us to join in. And [we’ll] wait for the moment when we can show full-on what we’re made of. [...] We’re preparing for the future. We’re levelling up and we’re on a new path to Africa.” Prigozhin did state that they could return to Ukraine at a later date when they would be confident that they would not “shame” themselves. Prigozhin then introduced Dmitry Utkin, founder of Wagner, who has rarely been seen publicly. Utkin stated, “This is not the end, it is just the beginning of the biggest job in the world, which will be carried out very soon. And, well, welcome to hell!” 

After the speeches, the video continues with Prigozhin saying “We’ll go and wipe out the faggots. We’ll wipe out the faggots worldwide! Better BDSM than LGBT!” It is questionable as to why this latter part was included in the video posted as it appears to be an offhand remark to a few troops gathered nearby. Regardless, it is a terrifying omen for the LGBTQ+ population in Africa which already faces widespread homophobia, extreme anti-LGBT laws, and frequent extrajudicial killings with impunity. While Wagner does not currently have a presence in Uganda, recent developments between Uganda and the US could open the door to Wagner involvement. US President Joseph Biden has warned Uganda that it could face sanctions due to their anti-LGBT laws and has imposed travel restrictions on Ugandan officials. Additionally, the US is evaluating “implications” of the laws "on all aspects of U.S. engagement with Uganda”, which could lead to the cessation of AIDS funding to the country and revoke Uganda’s eligibility for the African Growth and Opportunity Act. While the US is still planning to provide $20 million in security assistance this year to the country, it is possible that Uganda may begin to cut ties with the US.

In response to the US warning, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni stated that he will not be swayed and defended the law as it was backed by ‘experts’ who informed him that homosexuality is not genetic but is a “psychological disorientation”. With US-Uganda relations waning and an attitude of homophobia and death as a solution shared between Wagner and Museveni, it is possible that Museveni may establish a counter-terrorism partnership with Wagner instead of the US. While this would complicate regional relations between the US and East Africa, hiring an entity to provide security while disregarding LGBT human rights would be a win-win for Uganda and Wagner. Such a collaboration could possibly lead to the government invoking Wagner’s assistance in targeting LGBT people, ultimately leading to a genocide. While using such terminology may sound alarmist, the LGBT community in Uganda believes the path to genocide is already underway. Steven Kabuye, Co-Founder of Truth LGBTQ, recently discussed the danger that he and others face living in Uganda, stating that the international community must continue condemning the government in order to stop the “oncoming genocide on the LGBTQI community in Uganda.” Whether or not Wagner begins a presence in Uganda, what is certain is that Wagner troops anywhere in Africa pose a significant threat to the LGBT community.

The Wagner Group has been present in a number of African countries, including Libya, Sudan, Mali, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic (CAR). With an already deplorable track record in Africa, Wagner activity in Sudan could surge in the coming months. Wagner had been supporting Hemedti’s RSF before the war in Sudan even began, sending arms through supply routes that run through Darfur. Controlling gold mines in the country has been a significant funding source to the Kremlin’s war effort in Ukraine in order to dodge sanctions imposed by the US. Because of this, it is likely that Wagner has continued to send support  to the RSF since the conflict began in April to protect their source of income. Further meddling in Sudan by Wagner would be incredibly detrimental, exacerbating a civil war that is already becoming convoluted with tribal factions, foreign government support, and possible threats of terrorism.  

While Prigozhin’s speech implies that the pull from Ukraine and redeployment to Africa is his or Utkin’s decision, citing Moscow’s actions as a disgrace, it is questionable if this is an act of autonomy or actually a decision made by the Kremlin. In ‘The Wagner Group’s Expanding Global Footprint’, a report produced by Foreign Policy Research Institute this April, the writers state, “if the Russian General Staff shuts Wagner Group out of the Ukraine conflict, it could return to a place of relative success when it resumes missions in Africa.” Perhaps the redirection of Wagner is motivated by its (and Putin’s) failures in Ukraine and Prigozhin’s embarrassing coup attempt. The decision to focus on Africa, whether directed by Putin or Prigozhin, could be a tactic to appease Wagner troops who have become discouraged by deplorable conditions, limited ammunition in Ukraine, and casualties of their prisoner recruits at 50%. Switching to a battleground where they are more likely to succeed, while also having more freedom to commit abuses where international media has less of a presence, could increase troop morale and limit chances of desertion. 

With Wagner’s footprint expanding across Africa, an increase of 50,000 troops in the continent will no doubt put Western nations on edge. As some African governments are cutting ties with the West, Russia has established its disinformation campaigns in at least two dozen African countries. At a time when over half of the continent is undergoing electoral campaigns this year and next, the state of African democracy is in incredible danger as Russia continues its aim to deteriorate democratic developments. An increased presence of Wagner throughout the continent during this fragile time will no doubt increase instability and further democratic backsliding. Regardless of who is behind the redeployment decision, the expansion of the Wagner footprint in Africa will benefit Putin’s international power and deepen contentions in the New Cold War. While Ukranians will rejoice Wagner's withdrawal, Prigozhin’s announcement is a catastrophe for Western nations, international organisations, and, most of all, Africans already living in dire circumstances.