Wagner Intel Brief- 25/06 at 16:45 BST
Authors: Vanina Meyer, Kateryna Anisova, Marina Tovar
Source: AlJazeera People gather to watch the Wagner troops load a tank onto the back of a lorry as they pull out from the headquarters of the Southern Military District [Roman Romokhov/AFP]
Current Developments
Wagner group halts advance on Moscow amid a deal brokered by the Belarus President to drop charges of armed mutiny against Prigozhin. In exchange, the leader of the Wagner group would move to Belarus and Wagner fighters would face no action. As of June 24 evening, the Group was reportedly 200km from Moscow. CNA 25/06 01:46 BST This deal comes after Putin’s televised speech to the nation, calling the rebellion a “betrayal” and a “treason” and vowing to punish those behind the mutiny.
On late Saturday evening, following the deal with Putin mediated by the Belarus President, the Wagner Group pulled out of Rostov-on-Don with fighters and equipment. Residents reportedly cheered and chanted "Wagner! Wagner!" (Source Telegram video). Prigozhin was cheered and applauded by the population in Rostov when he was leaving by car.
All restrictions on highways have been lifted according to the TASS news agency on Sunday morning after traffic restrictions had been imposed on the M-4 “Don” expressway in the Moscow and Tula regions.
The current whereabouts of the Wagner military leader is for the moment unknown after a compromise was found with Putin.
A fuel tank fire at an oil refinery near the city of Voronezh was extinguished according to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, destroying a 5,000-ton tank of aviation kerosene. According to the local governor, Alexander Gusev, on Sunday morning the Wagner Group was leaving the region of Voronezh. The origin of the fire is unknown but social media videos showed at least one military helicopter in the vicinity.
Chinese and Russian diplomats to meet and discuss ‘issues of common concern’ in Beijing.
Negotiations
According to the press service of the Belarusian head of state, following the agreement between Alexander Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin, Belarussian President held talks with the head of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in agreement with the Russian president throughout the day of June 24.
"Yevgeny Prigozhin has accepted the proposal of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to stop the movement of armed forces of Wagner in Russia and further steps to de-escalate tensions," the report says. "At the moment there is an absolutely beneficial and acceptable option of resolving the situation on the table, with security guarantees for the fighters of the Wagner PMC," said the press service of Lukashenko.
Reactions
Russia
According to the Kremlin’s Spokesman, Peskov, the goal of the deal was “avoiding bloodshed, internal confrontation, and clashes with unpredictable results was the highest goal”.
Igor Girkin-Strelkov - a Russian army veteran and former Federal Security Service (FSB) officer who played a key role in the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation and occupation of Easter Ukraine - is disappointed with Prigozhin's decision. He believes that "nothing is over yet". Image 1 Translation: I don't believe in any "agreements". I hope to be wrong. The only possibility is that Prigozhin has explained that he is going to be personally rubbed in a wet place right now. And that is not a fact. Published: 18:42 BTS (source).
Image 2 translation: Even assuming that "That's it, let's split up", it remains to be said that the coup d'état has succeeded. The second (de facto) man in the state has been forcibly removed from power. Published: 19:31 BTS (source)
According to Peskov - Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation - an agreement has been reached that the Wagner PMC will withdraw to its field camps and Prigozhin himself will move to Belarus. The authorities will not prosecute those Wagnerians who took part in the insurgency, given their front-line credentials. Consequently, the criminal case against Prigozhin was terminated.
No personnel reshuffle in the Defence Ministry was discussed during talks with Prigozhin, Dmitry Peskov said, according to an RBC correspondent.
Ukraine
According to Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, the mutiny of the Wagner Group and its advancement towards Moscow show that "the masters of Russia control nothing. And that means nothing. Simply complete chaos. An absence of any predictability" said a video address. The Adviser to the President, Mykhailo Podolyak stated on Twitter “Prigozhin humiliated Putin/the state and showed that there is no longer a monopoly on violence…”
While Russia claimed the rebellion had no impact on its Ukraine campaign, Kyiv said the unrest offered a "window of opportunity" as the nation pressed its long-awaited counter-offensive.
International
US agencies were already closely monitoring the situation in mid-June with regard to Yevgeny Prigozhin's actions against Russia. Tensions had grown this week and became alarming, with concerns rising for the US and Europe about chaos in a country with a powerful nuclear arsenal.
News outlets in Europe depict the Wagner mutiny as the “gravest threat to Putin’s presidency”, and “terror turns on dictator” and shows the current crisis Putin is facing to hold on to power.
The Japanese National Security Secretariat, Takeo Akiba, discussed with his UU counterpart, Jake Sullivan, to discuss the situation in Russia, including the military mutiny of the Wagner Group, and agreed to cooperate and monitor the situation closely together.
The French President, Emmanuel Macron discussed with President Andrzej Duda of Poland on Saturday stating that they “discussed the possible impact of ongoing events in Russia on the war in Ukraine. They also confirmed their commitment and determination to support Ukraine to enable it to recover its full sovereignty”. President Macron also got on a call with US President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
Results
Losses-people: Fifteen servicemen of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation were killed in fighting with Wagner PMCs on June 24. Thirteen of them were pilots.
Losses-equipment: Mi-8MTPR REB helicopters (3); Mi-8 helicopter (1); Kamov Ka-50 helicopter (1); Mi-35 helicopter (1); Ilyushin Il-22 helicopter (1).
Analysis
The leader of the Wagner Group, Prigozhin, reportedly said that the “march on Moscow” was a march for justice intended to remove the corrupted and incompetent Russian military commanders especially the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and the chief of the general staff, Valery Gerasimov, accusing them of incompetence and of withholding ammunition from his fighters. On Saturday, he announced that the Group would stay in Rostov and move towards Moscow until they had the two Russian military as per a video reported by the New York Times. The leader of the Wagner group launched a mutiny on Friday after the military allegedly killed a fighter in an air strike which was denied by the Defence Ministry. CNA 25/06 01:46 BST
This event shows that Putin cannot control the country, from raids in Belgorod to the Wagner military action, systemic, military, and intelligence systems tensions are resurfacing. Also, people in Rostov were friendly to the Wagner Group which is a troubling sign for the power in place. The support Wagner received from the population in Rostov on June 24, very likely illustrates a discontentment with Putin’s policies, and possibly with the developments on the “special operation” in Ukraine. Tensions and divisions are arising and Russia is not on a unified front anymore. This apparent fraction could potentially hinder Putin’s reelection on March 17, 2024, as Putin’s concessions to integrate Wagner members not participating will join the Russian Defense Ministry and no one would be prosecuted. Putin’s concessions and lack of “severe punishment”, could likely hinder the regime's stability. The 1917 and 1991 events were drawn from a divided elite, a public that was dissatisfied, and a lack of fear of an uprising. Today’s events have illustrated the Russian citizens’ dissatisfaction by providing clear support to Wagner troops in Rostov-on-Don. It could be a window of opportunity for Ukraine and Europe, also in the context of the weakness of the Russian army and its soldiers on the Donetsk front. The morale of the troops was at its lowest and the Wagner Group was the strongest asset of the Russian army, namely in the town of Bakhmut.
Prigozhin likely staged an “attempted coup” to pressure Putin into dismissing Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov after tensions between the “military elite” and Wagner’s chief. Initial declarations from Prigozhin would back this scenario as he directed his claims against Gerasimov stating he was responsible for “scrambling warplanes to strike Wagner’s convoys”. Furthermore, as part of the conditions for Wagner’s withdrawal from Rostov-on-Don, Prigozhin likely requested Shoigu and Gerasimov dismissed, to which Peskov responded that “personal changes in the Russian Defence Ministry would be Putin’s competence in accordance with the Constitution”.
A division in Russian elites? Throughout the war in Ukraine, the Russian elite has been divided into those supporting Putin’s “special operation” and others who would have not taken that route, and would have been in favor of a rougher more assertive action in Ukraine. Although Prigozhins potential supporters have not backed him, as General Surovikin and Chechen leader Kadyrov backed Putin, this division is also evident as Rosgvardia leader Zolotov backed Prizoghin’s actions. Hence, Prigozhin’s lack of support likely resulted in the tactical retreat and opening to discussions. Other scenarios include, Analyst Velina Tchakarova’s scenario of Putin using this staged coup to blame the military leaders for the results of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine leading to elections in 2024. Velina’s scenario is a likely one as the Russian elite, but Putin’s support is one of the highest since 1993. If Putin sought to blame the military for Ukraine’s failures, Putin’s “willingness” to appear victorious has not been successful as it has evidenced fractures in Russian society and divisions in Russian elites. Nevertheless, in this alternative scenario, Putin’s goal to “have an excuse” for removing Gerasimov and Shoigu would be completed. Due to the unprecedented turn of events, this destabilizing situation for Moscow could have an important impact on Wagner's presence in the MENA and Africa region.
Published around 16:45 BST