Wagner Intel Brief - 30/06 at 4:15 BST
Author: Marina Tovar
Source: Reuters. Satellite image of new facilities recently set up, at a military base southeast of Minsk, Belarus on June 27, 2023.
Current developments:
Russian President Vladimir Putin has “no doubts” that Russian citizens support the “decisions of the leadership of the Russian Federation”.
The Kremlin has denied all claims involving a New York Times report stating US officials saying that Russian General Sergey Surovikin knew about Prigozhin’s rebellion plans. However, several sources, including Reuters, report that Russian senior military leadership, including Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s top general, have dropped out of public view since the attempted rebellion. In this line, the Moscow Times and bloggers, as well as Twitter accounts, report that Surovinik was allegedly arrested by the FSB on June 25 under the suspicion of helping Prigozhin with the attempted rebellion. There is no evidence for these claims, and the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Kremlin have denied these allegations. The Kremlin has declined to answer questions about General Surovikin, whose location and status remain unknown.
Wagner troops will no longer fight in Ukraine after Wagner forces will not sign contracts to bring them under the Russian defense ministry.
Wagner and Prigozhin in Belarus:
Two planes (serial numbers RA-20795 and RA-02878) linked to Prigozhin are seen at the Belarus air base in the satellite image. These planes have been seen leaving Belarus and traveling around Russia and the former country between Tuesday and Thursday. US and European intelligence officials report Prigozhin is using a “deception tactic” as his whereabouts are difficult to track by plane.
Wagner Group’s chief whereabouts remain unknown since his last photos and videos were taken when he was leaving Rostov-on-Don, on Monday 24, June, and with his last appearance on Monday, 26 June television. However, Belarusian President Lukashenko in Belarusian state TV on Tuesday, 25 June, stated that “I see that Prigozhin is already flying on this plane (...), yes, indeed, he is in Belarus today”.
Lukashenko highlighted that “Wagner had been offered some abandoned land inside Belarus”, but refused to build camps inside Belarusian territory for training and other purposes. Satellite imagery contradicts Lukashenko’s claims as a military base southeast of Minsk has new facilities, suggesting a new construction of a base for Wagner.
International Response: Updates
The United States announces new sanctions imposed related to gold dealing with funding the Wagner Group
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that “NATO is there to protect every ally, every inch of NATO territory”. In response, NATO has increased its preparedness and military presence in the Eastern Flank.
Switzerland expands sanctions on Russia in line with the European Union targeting individuals and organizations supporting the alleged illegal deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. This follows the EU's last financial and travel sanctions on 71 Russians and 33 entities.
EU High Representative Josep Borrell says Putin has lost the “monopoly of force” and has been weakened. Borrell highlights that Russia is at risk of internal instability.
Analysis:
Putin’s proposal to Wagner mercenaries to withdraw charges and integrate them into the Russian forces is very likely a way for Putin to take control over Wagner and reduce incentives to Wagner senior officials to make another rebellion attempt. Prigozhin’s statement of the non-signature of Wagner mercenaries into Russian forces almost certainly thwarts Putin’s stabilization attempts. As Prigozhin has refused to comply with the agreement made with Putin, the Russian President will likely reopen the criminal case against Prigozhin, pursuing a serious criminal investigation that could result in Wagner’s chief with criminal charges and a trial. If Putin were to act in this pathway, relations with Wagner and attempts to stabilize the internal situation would almost certainly lower due to increased mistrust.
Putin’s recent appearances in public resulted in a change of tendency compared to previous years, as the Russian President avoided public meetings and gathering with large crowds. Putin’s public appearances are likely to reduce the apparent tensions in Russian society and display imagery of Putin’s support to reduce speculations about a divided Russia. Putin almost certainly is seen in public restating his authority, showing unity and solidarity under his leadership. As the media continues to comment on the divisions in Russian society, it is more likely that Putin will make more public appearances and public speeches through the media to address the false nature of those claims.