As we commence the second quarter of 2023, it is evident that the African continent is set for a significant election year as 29 countries are scheduled to hold national elections. Among them are Zimbabwe, Sudan, Somaliland, Sierra Leone, Madagascar, Libya, Gabon, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

Given the political and security implications of such an election cycle, it is imperative to keep a close watch on the evolving situation in each country. The recent Nigerian election has brought to light the potential for electoral disputes in countries lacking electoral reforms and an environment not conducive to conducting free and fair elections. Therefore, it is crucial to monitor political and security developments that may affect businesses, individuals, and international organisations operating in these regions.

Reports from 1st of April to the 9th of April

DRC

Protesters challenge discriminatory 'Congoleseness' bill

On 4 April, members of the Association of Mestizos in the Congo (Asmeco) protested against a discriminatory bill, named the "Tshiani law", outside of the Parliament building. This bill seeks to prevent those with mixed nationality parentage from holding top senior political office. If passed, opposition presidential candidates, such as Moïse Katumbi, would be disqualified from the December presidential race because his father was Greek. If implemented, the law would delegitimize the election and lead to unrest in the coming months, as it would exclude political leaders who do not pass the Congolese purity test. This development presents a significant political risk as it could lead to social and political tensions, undermining the country's democratic stability.

Militant attacks kill dozens in Ituri Province

At least 30 people were killed by the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebel group between 2 and 3 April, in the Ituri province in the Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). 

The region is suffering from continuous militant attacks by various rebel groups, including the foreign ADF, which has been active in the eastern DRC for decades. These attacks exacerbate the already high level of displacement and security risks in the region, where attacks on civilians are commonplace. With the state of siege in place and restrictions on movement, armed attacks are expected to impede electoral participation ahead of the December presidential elections. This situation poses a serious political risk as it raises concerns about the government's ability to maintain security and ensure fair elections.

Gabon

New presidential term limits enacted

The Gabonese National Assembly and Senate reportedly amended the country's constitution on 6 April by decreasing the presidential term limits from seven years to five and adopting a one round ballot system. Some within the opposition ranks have condemned the adoption of the one round ballot system as a ploy to keep the incumbent President Ali Mbongo Ondimba in power, although he is yet to declare his candidacy for the upcoming election. With the reduction in presidential term limits and the adoption of a one round ballot system, the upcoming election in Gabon could lead to further political instability if the opposition is dissatisfied with the outcome.The lack of unity among opposition parties may also lead to a weaker opposition movement, further strengthening the incumbent's position, and potentially increasing tensions between opposing factions.

Libya

Human Rights Watch urges anti-cybercrime law repeal

On April 3rd, Human Rights Watch (HRW) urged for the nullification of the anti-cybercrime legislation and the release of those incarcerated for violating the law. The anti-cybercrime act, which was enacted in September 2022, has been abused to carry out targeted arrests. In February 2023, security forces apprehended a singer in eastern Libya for allegedly violating the anti-cybercrime act by "subverting public order and morals".  The law's second article aims to protect "public order and morals", but it lacks a specific meaning of these terms, making it simple to exploit the legislation to silence government critics. Without freedom of expression, it will be impossible to hold free and fair elections. Thus, in the next few months there will likely be an increase in the arrest of government dissenters if the anti-cybercrime act is not repealed.

Madagascar

Public protest ban ahead of presidential elections

Madagascar's government has prohibited "public protests" ahead of the November presidential elections, as reported by Radio France International (RFI) on 3 April. The ban extends to all political parties and government officials, with the exception of the executive branch, which may still hold public political gatherings. President Andry Rajoelina is expected to seek reelection. The government's blanket ban on all public protests is a direct assault on freedom of expression and a blatant disregard for democracy, which will likely fuel opposition and provoke protests across the country in the near to medium term.

Sierra Leone

Regulatory commission bans political parades

On 3 April, the Political Parties Regulatory Commission in Sierra Leone announced a ban on political parties before the June presidential election. The decision aims to encourage informed electoral choices by discouraging "street" festivities. Both the ruling Sierra Leone People's  Party (SLPP) and the opposition All People's Congress (APC) traditionally hold public, political parades in the lead-up to elections, but the Commission's spokesperson Lucien Momoh notes that this ban seeks to promote peace, in contrast to previous cycles marked by violence and intolerance. By prohibiting  political parades, the electoral cycle is expected to be less violent than previous elections.

Somaliland

President pledges to end armed-conflict

On 3 April, reports indicated that President Muse Bihi pledged to resolve the LasAnod conflict via peaceful dialogue. For the past three months, armed conflict has raged in LasAnod due to its aspiration to reunite with Somalia. Failure to resolve this conflict could impede the electoral process by restricting freedom of movement in the region, preventing effective participation in the election. This may raise questions regarding legitimacy, particularly from a region that seeks to reunite with Somalia rather than remain part of Somaliland.

Sudan

Protests erupt over delayed civilian government deal

On 7 April, hundreds of protestors in Khartoum demonstrated their frustration over the military authority's continued delay in implementing a long-awaited civilian government agreement. Despite security personnel's swift use of stun grenades and tear gas to disperse the protests, more demonstrations and confrontations are anticipated in the following weeks if a transitional civilian government is not established to facilitate a free and fair election. Unless a negotiated settlement is reached that satisfies the demands for a fully-fledged civilian government, the country will likely remain in a state of turmoil.

Zimbabwe

Opposition spokesperson's conviction increases crackdown fears

According to Amnesty International Deputy Director Flavia Mwangovya, Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) spokesperson Fadzai Mahere was convicted on 5 April for "communicating falsehoods" under a devoid legal provision as declared by the Constitutional Court in 2014. This conviction has exacerbated concerns regarding the growing crackdown on freedom of expression in Zimbabwe. As a result of her conviction and in accordance with the Electoral Act Amendment Bill, 2022, Fadzai Mahere may be ineligible to run for public office in the upcoming elections, as legislators and councilors who are convicted of "crimes of dishonesty" within 12 months prior to the date of candidate nomination are disqualified. Despite avoiding a 20-year prison sentence, the $500 fine levied against her has sparked alarms and a conversation around the application of Zimbabwean laws. By using a non-existent law to secure the conviction of an opposition spokesperson, the authorities appear to be weaponizing the legal system to silence political adversaries. As a result, it is likely that the run-up to the election will be fraught with numerous instances of crackdowns on critics and intimidation tactics.