Intelligence Brief: South African Elections

Tomorrow, 29 May 2024, At 0700 SAST (0500 GMT) South Africans go to the polls. South Africa will engage its proportional voting system to fill 400 parliamentary seats in the National Assembly. The governing African National Congress (ANC) will look to retain a majority, albeit likely a declining one. Below the forecast are factors likely to influence the vote.

Short Term Situational Forecasting

• London Political assesses with high confidence that the ANC will lose its majority due to perceived governance failures; the ANC will likely retain at least 44% of seats in the legislature, which will likely enable them to enter into a coalition with smaller parties, and without the EFF.

  • This would represent a continuation of the status quo as it relates to operational, security, and reputationl risks.

• Due to political instability caused by a reduced ANC position, it is likely that we will see unrest, and possibly clashes between party supporters during the elections. Previous clashes involving MK supporters suggest this may result in violent altercations, protests, and destruction of property.

• We assess this risk for Pietermaritzburg as high, with Johannesburg and Cape Town assessed as moderate risk locations. We are also likely to see severe congestion and petty crime in Pietermaritzburg. 

• Although political unrest is possible in Johannesburg and Cape Town, large-scale rioting and looting are unlikely. 

• Hate crimes spurred on by xenophobia are likely in all three cities; foreign nationals - particularly those from other African countries - should prepare contingency plans that take into account possible unrest and heavy congestion in cities.

 Immediate Election-Associated Risks

·       In the event of unrest, we are likely to see damage to property, arson, barricading of roads, looting, hijacking of trucks, and political violence;

·      Campaigning around illegal immigration and foreign investment in relation to unemployment can act as a trigger for episodes of targeted violence, and human right organisations have reported a heightened watch for xenophobic activity; 

·       Increased foot traffic, and possible unrest and vehicle protests may lead to movement difficulties in urban centres surrounding the elections; and,

·       Large crowds, particularly in Cape town and Johannesburg, may act as easy concealment for petty theft and gang activity.

Turnout

Turnout is expected to rise compared to recent years, according to the Chief Electoral Officer Sy Mambolo, with an increase of 1.2 million registered voters, which would be a rebound from record low voter turnouts of just below 66% in 2019. While this could be the result of important issues acutely affecting voters, or electoral inclusion campaigns, the South African median age of 27.6 is the highest it has been in the last decade, which highlights that aging young voters may simply be more likely to vote than when they were younger.

While inequality is a major issue, especially as it relates to the youth vote, other capstone issues such as the ongoing energy crisis, ageing physical infrastructure, and a volatile dependence on foreign capital have become key issues in recent years. The invigoration of young voters, and an increased age of voter-mobilisation, will likely play a large role in how key issues are assessed at the polls; South Africans appear generally more likely to prioritise social issues over economic ones. 

The Economy

South Africa’s economy is in a joblessness crisis, both leading to and being caused by sluggish growth. With unemployment reaching 32.4% in 2023, young people account for just over 40% that number. According to Reuters, falling tax revenue has been detrimental to government debt, causing debt-servicing to consume a greater share of the national budget than social spending. Further, a reliance on volatile foreign capital has reduced trust in public spending, leading to sentiments of abandonment in some regional electorates.

Infrastructure

Healthcare and Energy are at the forefront of this election. The nation’s state-owned utility company, Eskom, has resorted to major load shedding, causing crippling blackouts in recent years due to structural faults in power stations and inequity across delivery infrastructure. Much of this is the result of endemic corruption, and is perceived as a major failure of the ANC.

Healthcare inequality has sharply risen, with the rise of drug prices and poverty. While the ANC has already tabled the National Health Insurance plan, the largest opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), criticises its lack of foundation for funding, registration & administration, or hospital buy-in. As a result, the bill has sat for some time and all parties are looking to propose better solutions.

Key Players:

African National Congress

The African National Congress (ANC) is the country’s political powerhouse, with incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa looking to secure his second and final term. Often cited as ‘Mandela’s Party’, the ANC enters the race with a 57.5% (230/400) seat majority from 2019.

Reporting from eNCA indicates that despite its status, the ANC is sitting at about 40% in the opinion polls, with major news outlets such as the BBC and Al Jazeera predicting a slim loss of the party’s majority. A perceived lack of success in stopping rolling power outages, curbing corruption, and improving both provincial and national infrastructure has been seen as a major party failure by the population and is reflected in opinion polls.

We assess that it is likely that the ANC acquires 44% - 50% of the vote, forcing it to seek alliances with several smaller parties in an effort to keep its legislative power. If the ANC gets less than 45% of the vote, it is likely that the EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters) and ANC form a coalition. The Democratic Alliance (DA) has already entered an alliance agreement isolating the EFF. 

Any event in which the ANC maintains a majority, either through an outright win or coalition, sustains risks to businesses around corruption and crime, particularly if the party joins into a coalition with the EFF. Businesses would be very likely to face continued and increasing levels of financial and reputational risks around corruption, operational risks associated with degrading infrastructure, as well as physical risks associated with crime.

An EFF/ANC coalition could have damaging effects for the ANC’s reputation and South Africa as a whole, as the EFF is economically radical and aggressively nationalist. Markets would likely react negatively to such a coalition due to concerns around populist policies, asset nationalisation, corruption, and institutional overreach.

Democratic Alliance

The Democratic Alliance (DA) is currently the largest opposition party, seeking to grow their representation in legislature from 20.77% to at least 25%, an increase of at least 19-20 seats. Led by John Steenhuisen, a career politician, the DA has capitalised on regional wins over the ANC since 2019, and has based its platform around enabling more regional governance, and curbing crime, corruption, and healthcare inequity.  

The DA is much smaller than the ANC, both in historical clout and assembly power, polling at just 18.6%., However, successful regional election wins in the Western Cape have provided a significant party stronghold.

The DA has also struck a pre-election coalition deal with the IFP, FF Plus, ASA, and ACDP, to form the Multi-Party Charter for South Africa (MPCSA). A coalition that currently maintains 112 seats and is expected to grow exponentially.

With the DA and IFP both being substantial players, it is likely that the MPCSA will grow to at least 140 seats; enough to force the ANC into a coalition of its own, but not enough to achieve a majority.

uMkhonto weSizwe Party

The uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party is the wildcard in the race. Formed in December 2023 by Jacob Zuma, a former South African president who left the ANC amid several legal controversies and convictions. Despite being barred from standing in parliament due to his previous convictions related to charges on corruption, racketeering, money laundering and fraud, the former president is splitting votes, achieving up to 14% in opinion polls.

Hailed as an “anti-apartheid veteran and Zulu traditionalist”, MK’s targeting of the ANC plays a significant role in our assessment that the ANC is likely to lose its majority. MK may win up to 8% of the vote (32-33 seats) based on Ipsos polls. It is very likely that the majority of these seats would come from the ANC.

Economic Freedom Fighters

The EFF, led by Julius Malema, is currently polling at around 11-12%, and was founded after Malema was expelled from the ANC in 2013 for sowing divisive radical-leftist views. Known for public stunts and inflammatory remarks against minorities, the EFF is trying to capture the youth vote with promises of free WiFi and electricity – amongst other things. 

The EFF’s platform proposes land to be stripped from the wealthy and nationalised, assets to be pulled from mining companies to be redistributed towards education, and the establishment of accessible 24-hour medical clinics. While these are not the typical eye-catching pillars for moderate South African Voters, the EFF seems to be resonating with the growing lower class, promoting their manifesto at a time when the ANC is accused of failing to look after the poor and black majority. A coalition involving the EFF would likely cause capital flight, although nationalist economic policy would likely be dampened by the ANC’s overwhelming majority within the coalition.

It is likely that the EFF will see marginal gains in 2024. With polling at 11.5%, an increase from 2019’s 10.8%. Having been left out of the MPCSA, it is likely that they will be open to coalition deals.

Implications for Political Risk 

While no party is currently bringing forward a plan that will directly impact foreign investment or South Africa’s economy, international onlookers should watch for signals from the ANC tomorrow that they will prioritise continued economic stability, as well as its possible plans to join in a coalition with the EFF. During the election there is an increased risk of violence, looting, and civil unrest that may incidentally affect businesses.

The sturdiness of South African politics also has larger regional implications, as the country acts as a stabilising regional entity that wields a significant amount of soft and hard power. Less stable states within the African Union (AU) continuously rely on South Africa's steady hand to promote regional development and integration. The AU and UN also rely on their conflict resolution prowess to address conflicts in states such as the DRC or Burundi. Thus, internal unrest and/or power grappling may affect the government’s peacekeeping efforts on the continent, possibly impacting international organisations and NGOs.

Recent reports highlight ongoing disinformation around voter fraud, gerrymandering, and deceptive tactics at polling stations. The exact nature of these issues—whether they are electoral suppression or information operations—remains unclear. Unconfirmed breaches of ballot storage sites have been reported in KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, and the Western Cape. The Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) is investigating these claims, emphasising that they currently lack substantiation.

Despite IEC warnings against electoral disruptions, there are heightened concerns around violence and unrest following the election. This unrest would likely be largely fueled by former President Zuma’s inability to stand for office and a growing sense of disenfranchisement among impoverished populations, exacerbated by the EFF and MK. These tensions echo the 2021 riots in KwaZulu-Natal after Zuma’s imprisonment, which caused over R50 billion in economic damage.

Post-election, South Africa faces several significant risks, including heightened unrest, crime, and continued high-level corruption. The increased security measures by the National Joint Operational and Intelligence Structure (NATJOINTS) suggest that physical risks around unrest and crime are being taken seriously. Additionally, the previously suspended trucking protests from early May could resurface, gaining traction during the election period on highways that already report heavy amounts of crime.