Borders Without Oceans: The Hidden Costs of Central Asia’s Isolation

Landlocked, resource-rich, and surrounded by global powers, Central Asia has long been of broader geopolitical interest. Although Central Asia is often viewed through this lens of great power competition, the region’s internal dynamics are equally critical in shaping its geopolitical and economic trajectory. This analysis investigates the manner in which these nations have navigated the competing interests of major powers, fostered regional collaboration amidst geopolitical tensions, and the need to leverage their strategic location to drive economic growth, maintain political stability, and secure a more autonomous and prosperous future within the rapidly changing global order.

Executive Summary

• Geopolitical Struggles: Central Asia’s strategic location makes it a prime target for external powers, but its position also limits its ability to independently shape its political and economic trajectory.

• Resource Dependency: The region’s heavy reliance on natural resource exports, particularly oil and gas, makes it vulnerable to global market fluctuations, and dependence on foreign transit routes from Russia and China further complicates this situation.

• Historical Legacies: Central Asia is burdened with outdated institutions that were built during the Soviet era to facilitate commerce with Moscow. As a result, the region is even more dependent on outside markets and has limited access to its own.

• Intra-Regional Tensions: Water disputes, border conflicts, and economic disparities among the Central Asian nations, especially over natural resources, continue to thwart regional cooperation and collective economic development.

• Opportunities for Growth: Central Asia must focus on enhancing regional cooperation, diversifying its economy, and seeking more balanced partnerships beyond Russia and China to create a more self-sufficient and resilient future for itself.