Mozambique: Unwarranted Optimism in the Face of Renewed Terrorist Attacks
On 20 September, Mozambique’s President Filipe Nyusi landed in Mocímboa da Praia in Northern Mozambique, about a year after the town was recaptured from armed groups of Islamist extremists linked to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). The visit was strategic as Nyusi attempts to assert the security of the region and the stability of the country despite a succession of attacks since the beginning of 2022. It also coincided with the visit of the European Union Training Mission in Mozambique by a delegation of the Subcommittee on Security and Defence of the European Parliament, where Nathalie Loiseau, Member of the European Parliament and Chair of the Subcommittee underlined the need to accelerate the delivery of military material to the Mozambican armed forces. The handover of military equipment started on 9 September following the official visit to Mozambique of the EU High Representative, Josep Borrell. Borrell stressed that even though all eyes are on Ukraine at the moment, the EU remains concerned about all the crises in the world. This renewed focus on Mozambique is strategic, as the EU seeks new energy suppliers in the context of the war in Ukraine.
Mozambique, which has the third largest gas reserves in Africa, after Nigeria and Algeria, is a potential gas supplier to the EU. It is expected to start exporting liquified natural gas (LNG) for the first time, with upcoming shipments from ENI’s Coral-Sul floating LNG project. The company confirmed its interest in other hydrocarbon exploration areas and therefore its willingness to participate in the 6th licensing round organised by Mozambique’s National Petroleum Institute. TotalEnergies is another major player in the development of LNG with a $20 billion project still waiting to resume. The project was interrupted in 2021 following jihadist attacks that led to the Battle of Palma in Cabo Delgado Province. At the time, the company declared a situation of ‘force majeure’ and evacuated all employees. Last June the company made it public that it would resume work once it was certain the area was secured. On 16 September, Mozambique Finance Minister Max Tonela expressed optimism that the company would eventually resume the LNG project by March 2023. Similarly, Nyusi urged Western energy companies to resume work in Northern Mozambique, assuring them that stability has returned and security has improved.
However, the current security landscape in the northern region should raise concerns. A severe humanitarian crisis continues to affect nearly 1 million people, all of whom are internally displaced due to violence perpetrated by the Islamist group Ahlu-Sunnah wal Jama’ah (ASWJ). The Islamist group has links with ISIL and has managed to defeat the army, leaving behind a trail of death, rapes, sexual enslavement and abductions since the insurgency began in 2017. The attack on Palma, which led to the evacuation of TotalEnergies’ employees in 2021, was carried out by militants of ASWJ. The city was retaken after 11 days of fights and extreme violence against civilians. Sporadic attacks continued in April and May. The situation seemed to improve in the following months thanks to the intervention of the Southern African Development Community forces, and Rwandan troops in July 2021.
Nevertheless, security deteriorated again in 2022. In March 2022, the UN Refugee Agency sounded the alarm about the ongoing violence and related humanitarian crisis in northern Mozambique. According to the agency, security continued to be fragile in some areas, despite localised improvements. In June, new signals of deterioration emerged: the extremist militants launched a campaign of attacks spreading southward, reaching areas such as the previously violence-free districts of Ancuabe, Chiure, and Mecufi. In early September, militants continued to attack villages as they moved south, reaching the Erati and Memba Districts of the Nampula Province. According to a statement by President Nyusi, six citizens were beheaded, three kidnapped, and dozens of houses torched. Government buildings were also set on fire. On 6 September, an Italian nun was killed in Chipene, Memba. According to local authorities, the situation in Nampula Province was stable on 19 September thanks to a large-scale military deployment. In response to these attacks, Tanzania and Mozambique signed an agreement on 21 September to fight terrorism.
The surge in gas demand, the EU’s renewed interest in the country, the state’s desire to see gas projects resume, and the partial successes in the fight against terrorism could lead to an unintentional blindness and unwarranted optimism. According to a report from Cabo Ligado, a conflict observatory in Mozambique, there is no clear evidence that ASWJ has been weakened sufficiently to rule out future attacks of the same complexity as the Palma terror attack. Furthermore, the return of TotalEnergies to Mozambique could be an element of destabilisation. The resumption of the gas project and related activities could fuel grievances and eventually prepare a fertile terrain for the proselytising of ASWJ. TotalEnergies’ activities have caused the displacement of hundreds of families, the expropriation of agricultural land without adequate compensations, and the relocations of families far from their sources of livelihood. Grievances also stem from resentment towards the poverty of the region, which has so far not been able to benefit from the economic spin-offs of the TotalEnergies project. Additionally, during the 2021 escalation, the government deployed military personnel to protect the oil and gas giant’s areas of operations, neglecting the security of local communities. On 21 September, Mozambique’s Public Integrity Center expressed concern about the return of TotalEnergies, calling it hasty and potentially damaging to the security of the Northern Provinces.
At a time when Europe has a vested interest in strengthening ties with Mozambique, and Mozambique has much to gain from demonstrating that it is performing well and managing the terrorist threat to attract oil and gas companies back. Yet, stability in Mozambique remains fragile. Tensions, previously limited to the north of the country, are spreading to the south, while the threat of terrorist attacks persists. Mozambique’s ambition and the EU’s interest in importing LNG from the country could lead to the resumption of gas projects in unstable areas, which could ultimately result in the rapid deterioration of security, with civilians paying the highest price.