Iran Update: Protests Continue, Islamic Republic Falters
Now entering the 18th day of protests in Iran, the momentum and mass mobilizations behind calls for Mahsa (Zhina) Amini’s justice have spread worldwide. Protests continue in all 31 provinces of Iran, and the Iran Human Rights group estimates the death toll to be 133 as of Sunday, 2 October.
Crackdowns are increasingly targeting ethnic minorities and student groups. Late Sunday night, Iranian police stormed and laid siege to Sharif University, where students have been organising protests and boycotting classes. Videos from the University show students chanting against Ayatollah Khamenei early Sunday morning. Reports emerged that evening of police surrounding the entrances to the University – shutting students in and firing live ammunition and tear gas. On 1 October, a planned boycott of classes began across 100 universities in Iran, cementing the centrality of universities in the protests. By law, Iranian uniformed police cannot enter university campuses, although reports of plainclothes officers entering and shooting at protesting students have been increasing. Just on Friday, 30 September, the deadliest confrontation between protesters and police occurred in the southeast area of Zahedan, where 19 were killed as minority Sunni Baluchi worshippers exited Friday prayers at the Makki Grand Mosque.
Iranian police forces are additionally targeting prominent celebrities and public figures in hopes to highlight the wide-reaching ability of the Islamic Republic. Last week, Elahe Mohammadi and Niloufar Hamedi, two prominent journalists responsible for covering and reporting on Amini’s death, were arrested. Singer Shervin Hajipour, who went viral across the world for his songs composed of protesters’ tweets, was also arrested. Meanwhile, Iranian officials call the acts of solidarity from journalists, celebrities, and athletes ‘fanning the flames’ of the protests. In arresting high-profile figures, the Islamic Republic has done the opposite of diminishing protesters’ drive – it has only emboldened them.
Similarly, international mobilisation has increased significantly, with the Iranian diaspora in major cities organising solidarity protests. 1 October was deemed an international day of protest, which saw collective action in Washington DC, Brussels, Cologne, Amsterdam, New York, Los Angeles, Montreal, Barcelona, and others. International figures such as Bella Hadid, Angelina Jolie, Nazanin Boniadi, and more are also drawing attention to the protests and calling for support. In the political and diplomatic realm, the UN has condemned the protests. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has been pushing the EU for further sanctions on Tehran, with France appearing to support the move. The United States has introduced a new round of sanctions in hopes of “severely restricting” Iranian oil and petrochemical exports, while keeping previous sanctions in place. Notably, the Biden Administration has linked these new sanctions, which target one of Iran’s primary exports, to Iran’s alleged failure to meet a renewed nuclear deal, not to the recent protests. While showing support for the protests, the Administration has noted that it is willing to sign a nuclear deal based on mutual compliance.
Meanwhile, the response from the Islamic Republic has been incohesive, signifying Iran’s flailing attempts at controlling the protests. Ayatollah Khameini has been notably abstaining from commenting on the protests, while other top leaders have urged security forces to harshly deal with those engaging in the protests. In absence of a top-down political directive, Amnesty International uncovered an official document from the General Headquarters of Armed Forces on 21 September that urges security forces to “severely confront troublemakers and anti-revolutionaries”. In addition, the Islamic Republic is engaging in the flare-up of regional conflicts in an attempt to cast a shadow on the protests. On 28 September, Iran launched 73 ballistic missiles into Iraq’s Kurdish region targeting opposition groups and killing at least nine civilians.
Iran’s targeting of Iraqi Kurdish opposition is crucial to the significant undertone of the protests: Kurdish identity and the Islamic Republic’s historic treatment of Kurdish communities. Mahsa (Zhina) Amini was a Kurdish woman from Iran’s Kurdish-dominated northwest, and the Islamic Republic’s response has not shied away from blaming Iranian Kurdish dissidents for causing and amplifying the protests. The protest chant, “Women, life, freedom” has emerged as the leading rallying call globally to represent the protests, a phrase that comes from the Kurdish “Jin Jiyan Azadî” which has been traced to Kurdish women’s organising throughout the region. Activists are increasingly noting the importance of Iran’s historic suppression of Kurdish regions and communities, and the protests – in addition to calling for women’s rights and “Death to the Dictator” – also feature a significant call for Kurdish justice and rights.
The sustained protests have captured the globe in ways far different from protests in recent Iranian history. The current women, student, and minority-led movement highlights the solidarity across groups, and international calls for justice have ranged from celebrities to heads of state. As the protests enter their third week, some significant domestic and international factors should be given particular attention:
The call for increased EU sanctions by the German Foreign Minister and the addition of new sanctions by the Biden Administration are concerning. Sanctions over the past decade have effectively crushed Iran’s economy, leading to internal discontent, as evidenced by the 2019 protests, which were ignited by rising fuel prices. Activists are drawing attention to how the sanctions are most damaging to women, working-class people, and ethnic minorities – the very communities that are at the roots of the current protests. Further economic sanctions, even if framed in response to Iran’s alleged noncompliance with a renewed nuclear deal, will embolden the Islamic Republic to continue its crackdown. Iranian officials’ targeting of public figures and journalists domestically and abroad highlight how any international action against the Islamic Republic will likely be framed in ways that target protesters.
The current mobilisation of the Iranian diaspora is unparalleled in recent history. It will be crucial to pay utmost attention to the calls being made from Iranians and others abroad, as they will not only remind the Islamic Republic that solidarity exists beyond borders, but will also play a significant role in how states within the EU, as well as the United States, respond.
The Islamic Republic’s disjointed response signifies Tehran’s flailing strategic arms in attempting to crack down on the protests. Iranian President Raisi’s participation in the UN General Assembly at the beginning of the protests made a brutal crackdown – similar to what happened in 2019 – impossible. Raisi’s return to Iran from New York might have been too late into the protests’ international spread for Tehran to institute crackdowns similar to 2019. Instead, Iran’s current strategy has consisted of vague and contradictory signals. The silence from Ayatollah Khamenei and Raisi’s continual use of enemy conspiracy language reduces the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic in executing a cohesive response. The directive from the armed forces headquarters that seemingly allows and encourages violence against protesters alludes that instead of a diplomatic or political response, the policy on demonstrations comes from the security forces themselves. This fractured approach might be serving as a way to shield the Ayatollah – and therefore the Islamic Republic – from critique as Khameini ages and his successor is being sought out. However, reports are noting internal factions over the search, with one hardline official being quoted saying “this race has caused disarray inside the leadership. The deepening rift is the last thing we need when the country is in turmoil.”
The future of the Islamic Republic seemingly coincides with these unprecedented protests, and the combination of a flailing domestic strategy, international diaspora attention, and misguided calls for sanctions constitute a serious destabilising factor not only for Iran, but for the region as a whole.