The Truce Ended, What's Next for Yemen?
Failure to extend the truce agreement
The warring parties of the protracted conflict in Yemen failed to extend a six-month-long truce that ended on 2 October 2022. The failure to renew and prolong the UN-brokered ceasefire is a massive blow to the fragile negotiations led by UN Special Envoy Hans Grundberg. The original agreement, which came into force on 2 April 2022, has been renewed twice. However, this time, a stalemate in the negotiations and a rapid escalation of the conflict loom over the future of the truce.
The initial truce agreement in addition to the suspension of hostilities and cooperation relied on three major points: (1) allowing a limited number of commercial flights to Sana’a airport, (2) allowing entry of fuel ships into the Red Sea port of Hodeida, and (3) opening road access to the city of Taiz. The last, and currently the most contentious issue has seen the least amount of progress since the truce came into effect. While optimism for a lasting and sustainable peace agreement overshadowed the developments, the worsening crisis in Taiz steadily became a major impediment. Despite a reported significant decrease in casualties, the roads to Taiz remained closed, blocking humanitarian aid, emergency transits, and work travel, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.
As it currently stands, the Houthi rebels have declared that the negotiations have stalled, claiming that they have made too many concessions without seeing any positive results. Conversely, the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), which is the initiative of the anti-Houthi bloc to replace former President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi and unite the opposition forces, opposes the deadlock, arguing that the Houthis are hindering the peace process and not demonstrating an honest commitment to resolving the conflict. The statements highlight the lack of trust between the negotiating sides revealing a gradually more incompatible perspective. As an immediate reaction to the failure UN Special Envoy Grundberg called for restraint on all sides to avoid a rapid escalation that could set back any progress made since 2 April 2022.
The Houthi long game
The strategy of the Houthi rebels looks like a bet on dragging out the negotiations, despite the territories under their control remaining overly reliant on humanitarian aid with limited supplies. This move could potentially expose the weaknesses of the PLC which is struggling to maintain a united front in its objectives. Repeated instances of infighting reveal that the anti-Houthi coalition is deeply divided. The idea of a representative PLC backed by both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi brought previous grievances and the unsettled issue of southern secession to the forefront. To the Houthi leadership, this signalled rifts in the opposition that could rapidly escalate, especially without a ceasefire agreement that forces the anti-Houthi coalition to act united.
A Security Council Forecast for October 2022 highlighted the readiness of Houthis to restore to active warfare yet again. Empowered by the gradually more observable internal struggles of the PLC, the rebels held multiple military parades and attempted to encircle Taiz further. The latest developments show worrying signs that hostilities could return and escalate rapidly, while hopes for extending the truce for the third time begin to fade.
The future
The upcoming weeks will be critical in determining the future of the conflict in Yemen. As the divide between the warring sides becomes more outlined, and unresolved grievances weaken the PLC, the progress achieved by the 6-month-long truce is under threat. The United Nations Security Council is expected to keep the developments in Yemen high on its agenda while following Grundberg’s course of action. Avoiding an escalation is the priority as the UN Special Envoy already cautioned the parties to refrain from engaging in hostilities until the negotiations about the future of the truce are resolved. However, Grundberg faces an additional hurdle as the Houthis are accused of hijacking the negotiations for their objectives while giving no concessions. Should Grundberg achieve extending the truce agreement for the third time, it will be crucial to achieve constructive engagement from all the parties and avoid false optimism with superficial gains.