Italy’s 2022 voter apathy - outlier or a trend and what does this mean for European geopolitics?
Last Sunday, the third biggest European economy and founding nation of the European Union (EU) went to vote, as millions of Italians expressed their choice in a crucial election for the country. With the results confirmed since the early hours of Monday morning, media coverage has solely focused on Giorgia Meloni’s electoral victory, as the center-right coalition led by Meloni’s party “Fratelli D’Italia” went on to secure 44% of the vote share. Undoubtedly, Meloni’s triumph has raised many eyebrows given the controversial nature of her party. Despite this, it would be foolish to only focus on the debates offered by the mainstream media that discuss among other things: whether she poses a risk or not to the future of the EU.
In the midst of all the usual hubbub that surrounds a post-election, the overlooked set of data has actually been the staggering voter turnout drop, which resulted in an overall electoral turnout of 63.9%. This figure represents a 9% point decrease from the previous election and also the lowest electoral turnout in Italian history. Worryingly, this figure seems to be more of a trend than an outlier in Europe, given France’s widespread voter apathy this summer during the legislative elections that saw 52.49% of the population abstain from voting in the first election round.
When we analyze the data available, it is clear that European democracies have seen better days, given the somewhat broken and inefficient democratic mechanisms in place. Further proof of this lies in a report written by Chris Devonshire-Ellis that points out that: “European Prime Ministers are now making strategic long-lasting decisions while holding on average just 20% of the popular vote”. Such a statement should preoccupy European lawmakers and citizens, given the limited consensus some elected governments rely on.
So what does this actually mean for the geopolitical outlook in Europe? Obviously, a democratic system based on forming coalitions to rule, as seen in Italy, has its drawbacks. This system enables fringe parties to play a key role in the political arena, which can be a double-edged sword. The perils of this currently include the possibility of a weakening of Europe’s current united stance against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The consequences of such an occurrence could help to involuntarily prolong the conflict in Ukraine and dent the image of the EU, as a credible international organization. Due to this, since a long winter awaits the EU, its member states must be ready to overcome disagreements on common policy matters that regard the economic and military safety of the union. The poor electoral turnout in Europe has also decreased the legitimacy of western governments and emboldened Russia’s efforts, as it may be debated that the sender costs of Russian sanctions are making inroads in European stability. Recent developments support this notion, since Hungary has been pushing back on new energy sanctions on Russia.
Similarly, voter apathy and governmental instability have contributed to reducing the EU’s ability to project power within its own backyard, which in turn has damaged the credibility of conflict deterrents deployed by the EU. An example of this may be observed during the build-up to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine in which the EU unsuccessfully tried to deter Russia by threatening the imposition of sanctions. This general sense of instability and lack of cohesion within the EU which is traceable to poor voter turnout, has ultimately incentivized the outbreak of armed conflict in the European continent. The perceived vulnerability of the EU, especially after the Covid-19 pandemic, has been picked up by the EU’s foes, which have wasted no time in deciding to challenge once more this ambitious project.
Looking at the future, a more compact EU, an EU backed fully by its citizens would enable this organization to reinforce its bargaining position with Russia once diplomatic channels are re-established. To facilitate this, one of the possible solutions to the complex problem of European voter apathy comes directly from the Next Gen EU fund, which must be seen as an opportunity by EU member states. Initially planned as a post Covid-19 economic relief package to help revamp Europe, the €806.9 bn recovery fund represents a new economic and social start for Europe. An appropriate use of this fund to create initiatives that will strengthen electoral participation can hopefully foster a prosperous geopolitical future for Europe, in which the EU can project greater stability and power around the globe. The EU must look to improve its reach to underserved & frontline areas of the union; this in an attempt to build a common European sense of belonging that will stand the test of time.