Azerbaijan’s Cautious Neutrality over Russia’s War in Ukraine
Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has shaken the international system, led to the most serious confrontation between the West and Russia since the end of the Cold War and caused critical supply chain issues across the globe. While the majority of countries condemn Russia for its aggression siding with Ukraine, others remain neutral refraining from supporting either side and yet few countries support Russia accusing the West of provoking the war in Ukraine.
Azerbaijan, a former Soviet state that borders Russia in the north, has adopted a neutral stance vis-à-vis Russia-Ukraine war, refraining from taking a side in the West-Russia standoff in line with the balanced approach of its foreign policy which has proved very successful in allowing the country to act independently and pursue its national interests in international relations. As such, in official statements, Azerbaijan has not publicly criticised the Kremlin for its aggression, nor joined Western sanctions on Moscow. Commenting on the Russia-Ukraine war a day after the invasion started, the assistant to the President of Azerbaijan, Hikmet Hajiyev, expressed “concern” about ongoing developments and highlighted “the importance of resolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine through diplomatic, political means and dialogue”. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan has sent humanitarian aid worth 15 million euros to Ukraine while Georgia, another state of the South Caucasus region with a pro-Western foreign policy that suffered from the Russian invasion in 2008, has provided only 315,00 euros of aid to Ukraine and Armenia, a close ally of Russia in the South Caucasus, has not sent any aid to Ukraine. Moreover, all gas stations in Ukraine owned by Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR have provided ambulances and emergency services vehicles with free fuel. Even though these steps taken by Baku were important for Ukraine, they were not big enough to antagonise the Kremlin — something that official Baku wanted to avoid. This position should be understood in the context of the fact that the Kremlin has deployed around 2,000 troops as peacekeepers in the internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan and has been playing an important role in the Armenia-Azerbaijan normalisation process as a guarantor of the 2020 November ceasefire agreement in the post-war period. Although Russia’s influence over the South Caucasus region has declined following the Second Karabakh War with the growing influence of Turkey, it is still a regional power with a significant military presence in the region.
On 22 February, two days before the invasion, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev made a preplanned visit to Russia. Within the framework of the visit, a declaration on allied cooperation was signed between Azerbaijan and Russia. The declaration emphasized “mutual respect for independence, state sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability of the state borders of the two countries, as well as peaceful settlement of disputes and non-use of force or threat of force” in its first paragraph. This declaration should be interpreted as a precautionary move for Azerbaijan to ensure that it will not experience Russian aggression in return for the recognition of Russia’s dominant role in the post-Soviet region. It should be also noted that even though Azerbaijan is usually careful in its relations with Russia, it has more room for manoeuvre compared to some other post-Soviet states due to its economic independence and strategic alliance with Turkey, which enables it to boldly defend its national interests.
The overall neutral position of Azerbaijan on the Russia-Ukraine war is significant for two main reasons. Firstly, this position allows Baku to maintain ties with its strategic partner Ukraine and powerful neighbour Russia, therefore preventing any hostile behaviour from Russia. Having historically strong relations with Azerbaijan Ukraine supported the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Azerbaijan throughout the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict whereas Russia was the third largest trading partner of Azerbaijan with a turnover of $2.995,1 billion last year. Secondly, by not siding with either party Baku manages to keep itself out of the severe confrontation between Russia and the West, thereby not necessarily experiencing direct political, economic and security consequences of this confrontation