Iranian efforts to establish themselves as a nuclear-powered state have come up against several significant roadblocks.  With an agreement being signed in 2015, between Iran and the JCPOA a restrictive yet agreeable program was created. However, since Donald Trump’s move to pull out of the deal, Iran’s nuclear pathway remains obscured. Washington pledged in 2021 that it would take diplomatic steps to revive the deal, yet several impediments remain in the context of today’s geo-political climate. The most recent concern being the Russian aggression toward newly allied NATO member, Ukraine.  

Prior to the invasion, US violation of the deal, specifically the reimposition of harsh sanctions, had already prompted Iran to exceed its Uranium enrichment capacity, to 20% (far short of the purity required for nuclear weaponry). The current state of talks remain stale, as Washington’s decision to blacklist Iran’s most influential military wing, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has left the deal on life support. The Russian invasion has also further complicated the situation, as it was speculated that Enrique Mora, the chief EU negotiator in the Vienna talks, visited Tehran to salvage a midway solution. Speculation of the visit highlights Europe’s desire to import energy from Iran in light of the war in Ukraine as well as revisiting the IRGC’s designation as a terrorist group.

Despite Iran’s strong diplomatic relationship with its Russian counterpart, the course of the deal has taken unprecedented turns since Russian influence is deeply tied to Iranian nuclear development. Russia was one of the original signatories of the deal when it was first drafted in 2015, its influence plays a major role in the upkeep and operations of the Fordow Nuclear facility. Despite this, Iran from the start has condemned the war on Ukraine, labeling it as an act of aggression, yet balancing this through statements that it understands the security concerns made by Russia regarding NATO membership of Ukraine threatening geopolitical security within the region. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a televised speech at the beginning of the invasion stated his disapproval of Russian aggression, postulating the entire conflict to arise due to western hegemony and America’s foreign policy.

Yet as the conflict takes its course, western sanctions on Russia threaten Iran’s position within the deal and its relationship with the JCPOA. Russian demands by Mikhail Ulyanov, who stands as an envoy to Moscow regarding the Iran deal, have repeatedly iterated and demanded that sanctions imposed over the invasion of Ukraine not interfere with its ability to trade and conduct business with Iran. Developments during the course of the war had recently shown that Washington will not let its sanctions impede the JCPOA as discussions were held earlier on in the war in March. Yet a myriad of actions has led the revival of the deal to be hindered, for instance, Iran’s demand to take the IRGC off of the Foreign Terrorist Organizations list which the Trump administration put them on in 2019. 

Analysts as well as the powers involved have now lost a clear scope on where the deal will go. Robert Malley, US President Joe Biden’s special envoy for Iran has claimed that the current state of the deal remains tenuous at best, with hopes to get back to 2015 prospects remaining unsure.

As the outcome of the deal remains ambiguous, Mohammed Mokhbar (Iran’s Vice President) shows no signs of Iranian-Russian relations deteriorating. Mokhber said Iran has a serious will to comprehensively enhance ties with its Russian counterpart. There are no signs of this partnership falling short of this, as history has shown Tehran and Moscow to be strategic allies through trade and military links. The invasion of Ukraine has however left the global economy in a financial headlock. With oil shortages and price hikes. Analysts suggest that this may lead to Iran having leverage over its position in the deal, which will cause a loosening grip on its economic sanctions. Yet despite this hypothesis being optimistic for Iran, Washington's uncompromising global position so far, and long lasting anti-Iranian sentiment has left Tehran bitter, hence showing no signs for a deal closing.

The outcome of events has instead propositioned two potential outcomes: Firstly, that the image of a unipolar world focused around western dominance is now under threat, as there seems to be no sign of Iran slowing down its operations if the deal fails- Iran will likely then become a nuclear capable state with key geopolitical considerations for the region and global geopolitics. Secondly, on the grander scale of international relations, the war and developments of the Vienna deal now show the beginning of a multipolar world replacing this unipolar one. Iran has repeatedly made public urgings to approach the war in Ukraine diplomatically, commensurate with its Russian-aligned position while juggling relations with the West. The outcome of the war itself, may allow the Eurasian region to achieve a new sense of political sovereignty that digresses from US-based geopolitical interest as the EU and Russia acknowledge a rebalancing of energy politics, and so bargaining power, towards Tehran.