Decoding TotalEnergies’s massive $27 billion dollar deal with Iraq
On the 10th of July 2023, French major oil company TotalEnergies and the Iraqi government finally signed a much delayed $27 billion dollar energy deal, directed towards increasing the country’s oil production capacities by developing four oil, gas, and renewable projects. The signing of the deal, named the Gas Growth Integrated Project, took much longer than expected owing to several key reasons. First, a number of Shi'ite lawmakers had also cried foul over the deal, pointing to the lack of transparency and absence of bids from other oil companies. Another significant setback in the initial days of negotiation arose from TotalEnergies rejecting the now abolished Iraq's National Oil Company (INOC) as its partner in the project, mainly due to its lack of full legal status from the new Iraqi government. Iraq’s state owned Basrah Oil (BOC) will now be a partner in the project. The main hindrance to the project stemmed from sharing of revenues, which was finally resolved when Iraq agreed to take a stake in the project of 30 percent, in place of initial demand of 40 percent, giving majority stake to the French company.
Despite initial hiccups, the deal is seen as a welcome move both overseas and at home, one that will optimistically put Iraq on the path towards achieving energy sufficiency and helping to improve the business climate and attract further foreign investment. Iraq holds the world’s fifth largest proven oil reserves at 145 billion barrels, representing 8.4 percent of global reserves. Iraq’s potential as an oil producing nation has been held back due to years of sectarian violence, lack of transparency, governance, and poor environmental laws, leading to the withdrawal of many oil majors from the country. Exxon Mobil, Shell and BP have all scaled back their operations in recent years.
The launch of the Gas Growth Integrated Project is a watershed moment in Iraq’s history. The deal will see TotalEnergies intensify its efforts to increase gas production in the Ratawi field in the oil rich Basra region. This will help reduce Iraq’s reliance on gas imports from neighbouring Iran. For a long period of time, Iraq has relied on its neighbour for electricity and gas imports. Iran uses this as a leverage to exert influence on Iraqi politics. Iran, in the past and in the present, funds the training of the Popular Mobilization Forces, a paramilitary group trained to flush out the remaining US troops and anti-Iranian Kurdish elements that have operated in the northern region of the country. All of Iran’s initiatives are aimed towards keeping Iraqi and the American governments on its heels and exerting its influence in the region where the US has sought, from time to time to forge alliances and partnerships in order to nullify Iranian clout. Iran is a significant partner for Iraq in terms of trade and development prospects, with the latest breakthrough being in the railways sector. An MOU had been signed in March 2023, outlining executive procedures for establishing a rail connection between the two countries. Iran is making significant inroads into Iraq's economic landscape, creating an opportunity to invalidate America’s significant investments in the region. Iran’s economically driven shrewd tactics, such as these, will likely help to negate the US influence in the region as a whole and compel the US to rethink on its sanctions against Iran given that the commercial interests are at stake.
It appears that the US has also sought help from its Middle Eastern allies to hold back Iran’s ascendancy into Iraqi soil. Keeping its political differences aside, Saudi Arabia’s ACWA has agreed to develop The 1 GW solar power plant project in collaboration with TotalEnergies. The project seems to be part of the Iraqi government’s long term plan of solving electricity supply woes through installation of renewable sources. A portion of the revenue generated from the Gas Growth Integrated Project will be used by the French company to fund three additional projects: 1 GW solar power plant; a 600 million cubic feet a day gas processing facility, and a seawater project to boost Iraq’s southern oil production.
From the outside, the establishment of the solar power plant is a welcome move towards advancing Iraq on the path of self-sufficiency through sustainable modes of energy production. At the same time, it also appears to be a well crafted move by the Iraqi leadership to deviate attention from the environmental hazards that oil majors in Iraq have already created over a substantial period of time. Prior western oil majors have caused significant water shortages and pollution during its operations. The same environmentally catastrophic outcomes are likely to happen when TotalEnergies drives its efforts to increase production in the Ratawi oil field.
Past records also demonstrate that plants used by oil companies including BP and ExxonMobil accounted for 25% of the daily water consumption in a region of almost 5 million people. This leaves significantly less water for agriculture and other activities upon which the local rural communities are dependent upon. The harmful affluents emitted as a result of gas production has already affected the health of the residents in Iraq’s Basra region, with cancer rates having significantly grown in the region. While the deal has been projected to herald a new dawn in Iraq’s history, what remains to be seen is the possibility of the deal causing more harm than good to the Iraqi people in the long run.